Climate outlook for July to October

Long-range forecast overview

• Days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually warm days and nights.
• Rainfall is likely to be typical for the season across much of northern and far southern Australia.
• Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the interior, including much of SA and western NSW, and below average for parts of the far south-east.

Rainfall—Summary

Above average July to September rainfall likely for much of the southern half of the country

May to September is the northern Australian dry season. This means tropical northern Australia typically receives very low rainfall during this time (large areas receive less than 25 mm for the season), and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the average.

July

• For much of Australia, there is no strong signal towards above or below average rainfall for the month, however above average July rainfall is likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of northern SA.

July to September

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80%) to be above average for most of NSW and SA, and southern parts of the NT and Qld, and mid-WA.
• Parts of SA and western NSW have an increased chance of unusually high rainfall. Unusually high rainfall is defined as the highest 20% of July to September rainfall from 1981 to 2018.
• Western Tasmania and the far south-eastern mainland are likely (60 to 70% chance) to receive below average rainfall, including areas that have had severe rainfall deficiencies since February (totals in the lowest 5% of all years since 1900).
• Isolated parts of northern Australia are also likely to receive below average rainfall, but being the northern Australian dry season, rainfall is typically low at this time of year (totals less than 25 mm over July to September).
• Most remaining areas are most likely to see rainfall more typical for the season, including a typical seasonal chance of unusually high or low rainfall.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer July to September days and nights are very likely across Australia

July to September

• July to September maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be above average across Australia.
• All of Australia has an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures, at least 3 times the normal chance across most of the country. Unusually high maximum temperature refers to the warmest 20% of observations for July to September days between 1981 and 2018.
• Large areas of the country are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to have unusually high minimum temperatures during July to September, at least 4 times the normal chance across much of the southern half of Australia. Unusually high minimum temperature refers to the warmest 20% of observations for July to September nights between 1981 and 2018.

Climate influences

The Bureau's climate model simulates the physics of atmospheric, oceanic, ice and land surface processes, and uses millions of observations from satellites as well as in-situ instrumentation on land and at sea. These simulations enable the model to account for the influence of climate change and natural climate factors like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in its long-range forecasts.

Monitoring of current ocean and atmosphere climate conditions, for general information:

• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral.
• The Bureau's ENSO Outlook is at La Niña Watch. A shift to La Niña Watch does not guarantee that La Niña will develop, only that there are some signs it may develop later in the year. When La Niña Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Niña event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time and ENSO neutral around 50% of the time. Early signs of La Niña are most relevant to the climate of the tropical Pacific; the long-range forecast for Australian rainfall and temperature provides better guidance for the Australian climate.
• Climate models suggest that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024. Three models suggest the possibility of SSTs cooling to La Niña levels from August with the remaining 4 models maintaining neutral conditions.
• Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been warmest on record for each month between April 2023 and May 2024.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent 5 weeks have seen the IOD index within neutral thresholds; the latest weekly value is +0.02 °C. Climate models suggest positive IOD development is possible during the southern hemisphere winter. However, model accuracy has historically been low at this time of year, meaning outlooks beyond June should be viewed with caution.
• The current pattern of warmth in global sea surface temperatures is unlike historical patterns. This is likely to impact the ability to predict the development of climate influences such as ENSO and IOD based solely on historic relationships between sea surface temperatures and these events.