Climate outlook for November to February

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for November to January shows:

  • Above average rainfall is likely across much of southern and eastern Australia.
  • Warmer than average days and nights are likely to very likely across most of Australia.
  • Unusually high minimum temperatures are very likely for much of northern and eastern Australia.

Our forecasts have greater accuracy closer to the forecast period. Refer to our weekly updates to follow the evolution of rainfall and temperature patterns as the November to January season approaches.

Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall likely to be above average across much of southern and eastern Australia

November to January

  • Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for much of southern and eastern Australia, and scattered areas of WA and the NT.
  • For much of south-western and central WA, parts of the NT south of the Top End, the Northern Rivers of NSW and south-eastern Qld, rainfall is likely to be within the typical seasonal range.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall1 for scattered areas of northern Australia, and some smaller areas of the southern mainland.

1Unusually high rainfall is that in the highest 20% of observations for the forecast period (November to January) from 1981 to 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Increased chance of unusually warm days and nights across most of Australia

  • Above average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across most of Australia.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures2 for most of Australia, with a greater chance for Tasmania.
  • There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures2 across Australia, particularly across the north, parts of NSW and in Tas where unusually high minimum temperatures are very likely (>80% chance).

2 Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of November to January days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates evolutions in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for the coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

  • Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persist at near-record warm temperatures, falling just short of the record temperatures observed during 2023 and well above all other years since observations began in 1854. The sustained nature of this significant global ocean heat suggests that climate indicators such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may not necessarily behave as they have in the past.
  • ENSO is currently neutral.
  • The Bureau's climate model suggests ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist throughout the forecast period to February 2025. Some international models indicate La Niña thresholds may be met from mid to late spring.
  • All models forecast ENSO-neutral conditions by February 2025, suggesting that should a La Niña develop, it is likely to be weak and short-lived.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Forecasts indicate it will likely remain neutral, but weakly negative, until the end of 2024.

 

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