Climate outlook for March to June

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for March to May shows:

• above average rainfall is likely across much of northern Australia, parts of Western Australia, and some regions along the eastern coastline.
• warmer than average days are likely to very likely across much of Australia, as well as an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures, particularly for southern parts.
• warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Rainfall—Summary

Rainfall likely to be above average for northern Australia, and parts of the west

March to May

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average across much of northern Australia, and parts of Western Australia.
• Rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for March to May for much of southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹ for large parts of northern Australia, and small parts of the south-west of Western Australia, with highest chances across northern Queensland, where it's up to 2.5 times the normal chance.
• March is more likely to experience above-average rainfall over April and May.

¹Unusually high rainfall is that in the highest 20% of March to May rainfall observations from 1981 to 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer days and nights are likely across Australia

March to May

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² across much of Australia, with the highest chances in parts of south-eastern Australia, including Tasmania, south-eastern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, where it's up to 3 to 4 times the normal chance.
• Above average minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² nationwide, with more than 4 times the normal chance for parts of western WA, the tropical north, and south-eastern Queensland.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of March to May days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Australian region during January 2025 were the warmest on record for all Januarys since records began in 1900. The latest weekly SST analysis shows warmer than average waters surrounding Australia, with highest anomalies off the Western Australian coastline. This will contribute to increased atmospheric moisture and energy that may increase the intensity and frequency of weather systems.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Since late December 2024, the tropical Pacific has been more La Niña-like, with signs of interaction between oceanic and atmospheric indices. However, this response has not consistently met the Bureau's La Niña thresholds.
• All international models surveyed forecast neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) from March until at least June.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little association with Australian climate from December to April.
• Global SSTs remain substantially above average.