Climate outlook for April to July

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for April to June shows:

• rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for most of eastern, central and south-western Australia, and above average across parts of the north and west
• warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures across the country
• warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Rainfall—Summary

April to June rainfall expected to be in the typical range for the season for most of Australia

April to June

• Rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for the season for most of eastern, central and south-western Australia.
• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for northern and central Western Australia, the Northern Territory's Top End and Queensland's far northern Cape York Peninsula.
• April is the month with the highest likelihood of above average rainfall, extending across parts of south-western and northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, most of Queensland, and eastern and northern New South Wales. The chances of above average rainfall for the season decrease during May and June.

Remainder of March

• For the remainder of March rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average for much of Australia, with highest chances in the country's north-west.
• Rainfall during March over south-eastern Queensland, and eastern parts of New South Wales and Victoria will be substantially influenced by the movement and evolution of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, even as it degrades to a low following landfall.
• The Bureau's one- and two-week extended range forecasts are updated daily and can provide guidance beyond the 7-day forecast.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average April to June days and nights likely across Australia

April to June

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ across Australia, with the highest chances across large parts of the eastern states and parts the Kimberley in Western Australia where it's up to 3.5–4 times the usual chance.
• Above average minimum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) across almost all of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ across Australia, with the highest chances along much of the east coast, Tasmania, northern Cape York Peninsula, and western and central Western Australia, where it's up to 3.5–4 times the usual chance.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of April to June days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during February 2025 were the warmest on record for all Februarys since records began in 1900. Monthly SSTs in the Australian region have been the warmest on record for each respective month between October 2024 and February 2025.
• The latest weekly SST analysis shows warmer than average waters around most of the Australian coastline, with anomalies reaching up to 3°C above average off WA's Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts. Positive anomalies have returned in the north after some cooling in early February. SSTs in the Coral Sea have cooled in recent weeks due to the influence of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
• Warmer than average SSTs provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy that can influence the severity of tropical storms and weather systems and support the development of tropical cyclones.
• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. Daily SSTs for 2025 to date have been the second warmest on record for this time of year, only slightly cooler than the same time in 2024.
• The Bureau's model predicts neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least July. This is consistent with all international models surveyed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD typically has little association with Australian climate from December to April.