Climate outlook for May to August

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for May to July shows:

• rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for most of the country
• warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures away from the northern tropics
• warmer than average nights are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.

Rainfall—Summary

May to July rainfall likely to be within the typical range for most of the country; below average rainfall likely almost nation-wide during May 

May to July

• As a total across the 3 months, rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below average across parts of south-west WA, south-east SA, and Victoria, and above average for large parts of WA's Pilbara and Gascoyne regions. Elsewhere rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for May to July.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season. This means most of tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, with average rainfall less than 10 mm for the 3 months combined.
• The rainfall prospects vary significantly across the individual months as described below.

May

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below average across most of Australia west of the Great Dividing Range.

June

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be below average across south-east SA, much of Victoria, extending into southern and central parts of NSW.
• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for WA to the north of the Southwest Land Division; however, northern WA typically has very low rainfall totals at this time of year, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the average.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average May to July days and nights likely across Australia

May to July

• Above average maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia. 
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ across Australia excluding parts of the north. Chances exceed 70% across southern WA, and much of south-east Australia, including eastern NSW and Tasmania.
• Above average minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ across most of Australia. Chances exceed 70% across the western half of WA, southern Victoria, and Tasmania.

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region for March 2025 were the second warmest on record for all March months since observations began in 1900. This follows monthly SSTs in the Australian region being the warmest on record for each respective month from October 2024 to February 2025. 
• The latest weekly SST analysis shows warmer than average waters around most of the Australian coastline, reaching 2 to 3 °C above average off much of the western coast of Australia.
• Warmer than average SSTs provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy that can influence the severity of storms and weather systems.
• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. Monthly averages for January to March 2025 have been the second warmest on record for each respective month, with the 2025 values only slightly cooler than those in 2024.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least August. This is consistent with all surveyed international models.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts a neutral IOD until at least August. This is consistent with all surveyed international models, however skill for IOD forecasts at this time of the year is historically low for forecasts beyond a month ahead.