Climate outlook for May to August

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for May to July shows:

• rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of the south-west, the east, and much of the north, including inland Queensland
• warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures, particularly across southern Australia
• warmer than average nights are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures.

Rainfall—Summary

The likelihood of rainfall varies across the country and across the forecast period - drier in May, with an increased chance of rain in June and July

May to July

• For the 3-month period, below average rainfall (60 to 80% chance) is likely for parts of the country's east and south-west, and most of the north.
• For the remainder of the country, rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for May to July.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season. This means most of tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, with average rainfall less than 10 mm for the 3 months combined.

May

• Rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below average across most of the Australian mainland, and in parts of northern Tasmania.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ across much of Australia, especially in large parts of the interior and scattered areas in the south.

June

• Rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for most of southern Australia and parts of the northern mainland, while large parts of Queensland, parts of northern NSW and the northern NT are likely (60 to 80% chance) to see below average rainfall.
• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for scattered parts of south-west SA, and much of WA's Pilbara and northern Gascoyne; however, northern WA typically has very low rainfall totals at this time of year, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the average. 

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the lowest 20% of May rainfall observations between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average May to July days and nights likely across most of Australia

May to July

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² across Australia excluding parts of the north. Chances exceed 70% for western parts of Western Australia, eastern and far northern Queensland and much of south-eastern Australia, including southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
• Minimum temperatures during May and June are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average in coastal parts including all capital cities, but in the typical range for May and June in parts of the interior.
• For the 3-month period May to July, there is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² across most of Australia excluding some central inland areas. Chances exceed 70% for parts of western and southern Western Australia, southern Victoria, and the northern Cape York Peninsula.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during March 2025 were the second warmest for March on record since observations began in 1900. SSTs for the previous 5 consecutive months were the warmest on record for each respective month.

• The latest weekly SST analysis (ending 20 April) shows warmer than average waters around most of the Australian coastline, reaching up to 3 °C above average to Australia's west, south and parts of the east. Waters to Australia's north are close to average, largely due to tropical weather activity.
• Warmer than average SSTs provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy that can influence the severity of storms and weather systems.

• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. Each month in 2025 has been the second warmest recorded for its respective month, only slightly cooler than 2024.

• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least September. This is consistent with forecasts from a range of international models. However, skill for ENSO forecasts at this time of the year has historically been low beyond winter.

• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts a neutral IOD until at least August. This is consistent with a range of international models that are also predicting neutral IOD for at least the next two months. Skill for IOD forecasts at this time of the year has historically been low for forecasts beyond a month ahead.