Climate outlook for May to August

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for May to July shows:

• rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of the south-west, the east, and much of the north.
• warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures, particularly across southern Australia.
• warmer than average nights are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures, particularly across far southern Australia.

Rainfall—Summary

Drier than average in May, with the likelihood of rainfall increasing in June and July

May to July

• For the 3-month period, below average rainfall (60 to 80% chance) is likely for parts of the country's south-west and east, and much of the north.
• For the remainder of the country, rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for May to July.
• May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season. This means most of tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, with average rainfall less than 10 mm for the 3 months combined.

May

• Rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be below average across most of the Australian mainland, and in parts of northern and eastern Tasmania.
• There is an increased chance of unusually low rainfall¹ across much of Australia, especially in large parts of the interior and scattered areas in the south.

June

• Rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for much of southern Australia and parts of the northern mainland, while parts of Queensland, northern NSW and the northern NT are likely (60 to 80% chance) to see below average rainfall.
• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average for parts of WA's north-west and interior. However, northern WA typically has very low rainfall totals at this time of year, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the average. 

¹Unusually low rainfall is that in the lowest 20% of May rainfall observations between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average May to July days and nights likely across most of Australia

May to July

• For the 3-month period, above average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across almost all of Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² across Australia excluding parts of the north. Chances exceed 70% for western parts of Western Australia, south-eastern Queensland and much of south-eastern Australia, including Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² across most of Australia excluding some central inland areas. Chances exceed 70% for most of Tasmania, much of Victoria, and parts of western and southern Western Australia.
• Minimum temperatures during May are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be above average in coastal parts including all capital cities, but in the typical range for May across much of the interior.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during March 2025 were the second warmest for March on record since observations began in 1900. SSTs for the previous 5 consecutive months were the warmest on record for each respective month.

• The latest weekly SST analysis (ending 27 April) shows warmer than average waters around most of the Australian coastline, reaching up to 3 °C above average in waters to Australia's west, south and east. Waters to Australia's central north are close to average, largely due to tropical weather activity.
• Warmer than average SSTs provide increased atmospheric moisture and energy that can influence the severity of storms and weather systems.

• Global SSTs remain substantially above average. SSTs during March 2025 were the second warmest for March on record since observations began in 1900.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts neutral ENSO (neither El Niño nor La Niña) until at least September. This is consistent with forecasts from a range of international models. However, skill for ENSO forecasts at this time of the year has historically been low beyond winter.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The Bureau's model predicts a neutral IOD until at least August. This is consistent with a range of international models that are also predicting neutral IOD for at least the next two months. Skill for IOD forecasts at this time of the year has historically been low for forecasts beyond a month ahead.