Climate outlook for August to November

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for August to October shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for most of mainland Australia.
• Warmer than average days are likely across northern, western and south-eastern Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures in the far north and across Tasmania.
• Warmer than average nights are likely to very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures for northern, eastern and central Australia.

Subscribe to get the latest long-range forecasts by email

Rainfall—Summary

Above average rainfall for most of mainland Australia

August to October

• Above average rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of mainland Australia, apart from the west and far south-east.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall¹, with chances exceeding 50% (5 times the normal likelihood) for southern Queensland, southern Northern Territory, parts of eastern South Australia and western and northern New South Wales, west of the Great Dividing Range.
• August and September are within the northern Australian dry season. During this time, most of tropical northern Australia typically receives very low rainfall, with monthly average rainfall less than 10 mm for these months.
• During September to November, northern Australia transitions from the dry to the wet season, which is associated with a seasonal increase in humidity, storms and showers.
• There is a weak forecast signal for most of western and northern Western Australia, southern Victoria and across Tasmania, including areas affected by prolonged dry conditions. The absence of a strong signal means there is a roughly equal chance of above, below or near-average rainfall, with no strong indication of unusually wet or dry conditions.

¹Unusually high rainfall is in the highest 20% of August to October rainfall, between 1981 and 2018.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days likely in the north, west and south-east, warmer than average nights likely nationwide

August to October

• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of northern, western and south-eastern Australia.
• Below average maximum temperatures are likely (60 to 70% chance) for parts of northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and eastern South Australia.
• There is a weak forecast signal for maximum temperatures for most remaining areas. Enhanced cloud cover related to the forecast for above average rainfall is likely moderating the temperature forecast in locations with a lower chance of above average daytime temperatures.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures² for parts of far northern Australia and across Tasmania, with chances exceeding 60% (3 times the normal likelihood).
• Above average minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) across Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures² across most of the country. Chances exceed 60% (3 times the normal likelihood) across large parts of northern, eastern and central Australia.

²Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of August to October days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We generate forecasts for up to 4 months ahead using our long-range forecast model, ACCESS-S. The model simulates the evolution in the state of the atmosphere and oceans for coming months. It uses millions of observations from satellites and instruments on land and at sea.

We monitor global and hemispheric climate indicators that can support our understanding of longer-term predictability of the weather. These indicators are mainly associated with interactions between the atmosphere and ocean.

For general information, our monitoring of these climate indicators shows:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region during June 2025 were +0.96 °C above the 1991–2020 average, the second-warmest June on record since observations began in 1900. SSTs from July 2024 to June 2025 have been the warmest or second warmest on record for each respective month. Similarly, global SSTs remain substantially above average, with June 2025 the third warmest on record.
• The sea surface temperatures (SST) analysis for the week ending 27 July 2025 shows warmer than average waters across much of the Australian region, except waters to Australia’s north that are near average. Within 200 nautical miles of the western, southern and eastern coasts, SSTs range up to 2 °C warmer than average, with small patches to Australia's south-west and in the Coral Sea reaching up to 3 °C warmer than average. There has been some cooling in recent weeks, particularly along the western and southern coasts of Australia.
• Forecasts for the next three months show SSTs around Australia are likely to be warmer than average to the north, south, and east, with waters near to slightly above average surrounding much of Western Australia.

• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. Most international models assessed, including the Bureau’s, predict ENSO to persist in the neutral phase until at least December. However, several models indicate borderline La Niña conditions in spring and early summer.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. Most international models predict a shift towards a negative IOD pattern during late winter. The Bureau's model predicts a neutral state of the IOD until at least August, dipping into the negative IOD range for September and October before returning to neutral IOD values in November.