Climate outlook for February to May

Long-range forecast overview

The long-range forecast for February to April shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of central and south-east Australia, and above average in parts of the east. For much of the country, there's no strong signal indicating wetter or drier than average conditions.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely be above average across much of Australia.

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Rainfall—Summary

No strong forecast signal for much of the country

February to April

• For large parts of Australia, the rainfall forecast does not strongly favour any outcome, meaning there are roughly equal chances that February to April rainfall will be above, below or close to average.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 75% chance) for parts of south-eastern, central and northern Australia. The drier than average forecast signal varies in strength and location from month to month as the season progresses.
• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60% to 70% chance) for parts of south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales
• February to April falls within the wet season for northern Australia when high-impact rainfall events regularly occur. There are increased chances of above average rainfall during March across parts of eastern Queensland.

Temperature—Summary

Warmer than average days and nights likely across most of Australia

February to April

• Maximum temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average (60% to over 80% chance) across most of Australia.
• The chance of above average maximum temperatures is closer to 50% across much of the north during March, reflecting the forecast for wetter conditions and increased cloud cover.
• Some areas have an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance), including Tasmania, much of Western Australia, and parts of the east.
• Minimum temperatures are very likely to be above average (more than 80% chance) across most of Australia, with lower chances (closer to 50%) across parts southern Australia.
• There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures¹ (over 50% chance) across much of northern and eastern Australia, with the strongest chances in the tropical north and parts of the east (over 70% chance).

¹Unusually high maximum and minimum temperatures are those in the warmest 20% of February to April days and nights, respectively, between 1981 and 2018.

We use our long-range model, ACCESS-S, to forecast up to four months ahead. It simulates how the atmosphere and oceans may change, using millions of observations from satellites, land stations, and ocean instruments.

We also track global climate indicators to help understand long-term weather patterns. These mainly reflect how the ocean and atmosphere interact.

Current climate indicators:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Australian region were the third warmest on record for December. Global SSTs were the fourth warmest on record for December 2025.
• SSTs for the week ending 25 January 2026 show warmer than average waters off much of Western Australia and the northern NSW coast. Waters are cooler than average off the south-east Australian coast, and to Australia's north. SSTs have cooled in recent weeks over the Coral Sea and Tasman Sea, with waters off eastern Queensland now close to average.
• Forecasts for February to April show warmer-than-average SSTs are likely across much of the Australian region, with notable warming predicted in the Tasman Sea. Warmer oceans can provide increased moisture and energy, that can enhance the severity of storms, cyclones and rain systems.
• A weak La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. The Bureau's model predicts that temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to return to a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state in late summer. This timing aligns with most international models assessed.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The IOD is typically inactive from December to April.