Mixed outlook for Autumn temperatures

The Bureau's autumn temperature outlook favours above average daytime temperatures over northern and central Queensland, the Top End of the NT, and in western WA. In contrast, there is an increased likelihood of a cooler than average season in parts of southeastern Australia. This outlook pattern is the result of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the March to May period, the chances of above average seasonal daytime temperatures are above 60% in an area stretching across the northern NT, the northeastern half of Queensland (excluding the eastern coastal strip south of Cairns) and in western WA (see map). The strongest probabilities, ranging between 65 and 70%, are evident in the southwestern region of Cape York Peninsula. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of every 10 are expected to be warmer than average across these parts of the country, with about 4 out of 10 being cooler. In southeast SA, most of Victoria, and parts of Tasmania, the chances of a warmer than average March to May period are between 35 and 40%. This means that a cooler than average season has a 60 to 65% chance of occurring. Elsewhere the outlook for a warmer than average autumn is neutral with chances between 40 and 60%. Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During the March to May period, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over Victoria, Tasmania, the far north and southwest of WA and much of Queensland and the NT. Elsewhere this relationship is weak (see background information). Warmer than average nights are favoured over much of northern and western Australia, with widespread probabilities of between 60 and 70% across Queensland, the NT, much of WA, and also in northeastern NSW. In contrast, the chances across Victoria, southeast SA and northern Tasmania are below 40% with parts of western Victoria indicating probabilities ranging between 25 and 30%. This indicates that cooler than average nights are favoured in these areas for the autumn months. History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures in the March to May period to be moderately consistent over large parts of the country.

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:

Queensland -	(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -	(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -	(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -	(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -	(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -	(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -	(08) 8920 3813

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17^th MARCH 2004.

Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for November 2003 to January 2004 - base period 1961-1990

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).