National Seasonal Temperature Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2004, issued 17th August 2004

Warmer than average Spring for south Queensland

Spring maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average across a large part of southern Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for most of the country, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for mean maximum temperatures during the September to November period.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been more heavily influenced by recent above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The chances of above average spring daytime temperatures are between 60 and 65% over much of southern Queensland (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six spring periods out of ten are expected to be warmer than average across this part of the country, with about four out of ten being cooler.

Across the rest of Queensland, and in all other States and Territories, the chances of a warmer than average spring are generally between 50 and 60%.

Outlook confidence is related to the consistency of the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal temperatures. During spring, history shows this influence on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent across large parts of the country, with the exception of the southeast and far west where it is only weakly consistent (see background information).

Overnight temperatures have an increased chance of being above normal for spring across much of WA and the west of the NT. The chances of above average minimum temperatures are mainly between 60 and 65% in these areas. Across remaining parts of the country, the chances of above average seasonal minimum temperatures are mostly between 45 and 60%.

History shows the oceans' influence on minimum temperatures during September to November to be moderate to highly consistent over most of the country, except in parts of southeast and eastern Australia where the influence is generally only weakly consistent.

probability of exceeding median maximum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map
probability of exceeding median minimum temperature - click on the image for a larger version of the map

Click on the maps above for larger versions of the maps. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast maps are displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Felicity Gamble on (03) 9669 4256
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



Corresponding rainfall outlook

Maximum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990

Minimum temperature departures from average for May to July 2004 - base period 1961-1990


Background Information