About Forecast Rainfall

In August 2024, we changed the data source for the Water and the Land (WATL) rainfall forecasts from Probability Matched Ensemble model to the Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD).

ADFD is the data source used for Australia's official forecasts. It is used in:

• MetEye
• Text forecasts
• BOM Weather app

8-day forecasts

You are still able to access an 8-day total rainfall forecast.

ADFD has a 7-day forecast period. To generate the 8-day forecast, a new post-processing platform called IMPROVER will run alongside ADFD.

IMPROVER stands for Integrated Model post-PROcessing and VERification. For more information, see An initial benchmarking of IMPROVER – Part 2: evaluation of precipitation diagnostics.

Charts

Charts using the new data source are very similar to the ones available before.

The area shown is slightly different, as ADFD does not cover oceans around Australia. For international areas, use the Interactive Map Viewer.

The Water and the Land rainfall forecasts are created using the:

• Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD)
• Integrated Model post-PROcessing and VERification (IMPROVER) ensemble model output

Use the radio buttons and drop-down menus to view Water and the Land forecast charts.

Forecast daily rainfall

Forecast daily rainfall for:

• Australia
• each state/territory
• districts for the next 5 days.

Created using ADFD and updated twice daily at approximately 9am AEST and 8pm AEST.

Chance of rainfall amounts

Expected chance of receiving different amounts of rainfall, from 1 mm to 50 mm, for:

• Australia
• each state and territory.

Created using ADFD and updated twice daily at approximately 9am AEST and 8pm AEST.

Total forecast rainfall

Total forecast rainfall for Australia for the:

• next 4 days
• following 4 days
• total 8 days.

Created using ADFD for the first 7 days and IMPROVER model output for the remainder. Updated twice daily at approximately 9am AEST and 8pm AEST.

The sum of the daily maps and the total rainfall maps may differ slightly.

Using our range of forecasts

Rainfall forecasting is complex. While weather elements like temperature can be the same across large areas, rainfall is much more variable.

Differences in rainfall can be seen from suburb to suburb, or farm to farm. Showers move across the landscape, raining on some areas and missing others.

We offer a range of rainfall forecasts at different geographic and time scales.

Water and the Land rainfall forecasts

The WATL rainfall forecast maps show broad patterns in expected rainfall. This 'big picture' can highlight areas that expect a lot or a little rain.

MetEye

MetEye provides detailed rainfall forecasts specific to a location.

These forecasts are probabilistic. Probability describes how likely an event is – in this case, the likelihood of rain.

The rainfall forecasts are in 3-hourly blocks so you can see when the rain is likely.

MetEye has forecasts for other weather types such as thunderstorms, frost, wind, and temperature. Find out more in Ten tips for a detailed weather forecast.

Interactive map viewer

The Interactive Map Viewer has rainfall forecasts using the ACCESS computer model. These forecasts cover areas beyond Australia, including the South West Pacific and global (select Globe).

Rainfall outlooks

Rainfall outlooks display the chance of exceeding median rainfall in the next:

• 3 months
• 1 month
• 2 weeks
• week.

Information about climate drivers describes underlying influences on rainfall.