Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Persistent dryness in southern Australia with low streamflow and declining water storages

February rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Decembers since 1900) for:

• most of Tasmania, western Victoria, western and southern South Australia
• large parts of western and south-eastern Western Australia
• areas in the Top End and the south in the Northern Territory
• parts of northern and eastern New South Wales
• parts of south-eastern Queensland

Further details: Monthly climate summaries

Tropical rainfall

The Monsoon onset was observed at Darwin on 7 February, the latest onset since records began in the 1957–58 wet season.

Persistently dry seasons over southern Australia

Persistent dryness has affected coastal areas of southern Australia over recent seasons. Severe rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% since 1900) have developed in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania. At the same time, soil moisture content, runoff, streamflow and water storage levels have all decreased across much of southern Australia.

The February Drought Statement has included a longer 23-month rainfall deficiency analysis period, commencing in April 2023. This longer rainfall deficiency analysis period covers the last two April to October cool seasons.

The cool season period is important for southern Australia as it is when the majority of its rainfall occurs. This means that

• it is the main growing season for many crops
• there is increased soil moisture content and runoff
• there is increased streamflow, leading to increases in water storage levels.

The rainfall deficiency period starting in April 2023 reflects the impacts of climate change. As detailed in State of the Climate 2024, there has been a decline in April to October rainfall over the south-west and south-east of Australia in recent decades, with more frequent periods of below-average rainfall in these areas during these months. Cool season rainfall across southern Australia since 1994 has been 9% below the 1900–1993 average. This is due to a combination of natural variability on decadal timescales and changes in large-scale circulation largely driven by an increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

April to June forecast

The long-range forecast, released on 6 February 2025 for April to June 2025 shows that, except for small areas of southern Australia, rainfall is likely (60 to 70% chance) to be within the typical range for the season for most of eastern, central and south-western Australia, and above average across parts of the north and west. Warmer than average temperatures are very likely across most of Australia.

Deficiencies for the 13 months since February 2024

For the 13-month period since February 2024, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend along:

• part of the south coast of Western Australia
• agricultural regions of South Australia
• western, southern, and parts of central Victoria
• a small area of the eastern ranges in southern New South Wales
• coastal western Tasmania including King Island.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Fleurieu Peninsula, and the Adelaide Plains, County Light, Murraylands and Upper South East districts in South Australia
• the coastline near Warrnambool in Victoria
• the coastline near Esperance in Western Australia.

Compared to January, areas of rainfall deficiency increased in extent in all southern states.

Deficiencies for the 23 months since April 2023

For the 23-month period since April 2023, which includes the last two cool seasons, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• a large area of the south-west of Western Australia
• agricultural regions of South Australia
• south-western Victoria
• north-western Tasmania, the Bass Strait islands, and some parts of the south-east of the state.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• a large region extending inland around Perth, in Western Australia, and small areas along the south coast
• an area inland near Adelaide, and a small areas on the Yorke Peninsula and Eyre Peninsula in South Australia
• the coastline near Warrnambool in Victoria.

NULL

Below average soil moisture in much of the southern and central mainland

February root zone soil moisture was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Februarys since 1911) in:

• parts of the southern Western Australia
• much of South Australia
• large parts of western Victoria and New South Wales
• Tasmania's west
• parts of southern and western Queensland
• much of the Northern Territory excluding the north-west.

There were pockets of lowest on record February soil moisture in south-eastern South Australia.

Soil moisture deficits intensified in February over most of southern Australia except for eastern Victoria and coastal New South Wales. Root zone soil moisture is typically low across much of southern Australia at this time of year. However, there were long-term deficits across much of the region, particularly in south-east South Australia and western Victoria.

While some soil moisture deficits continued across the central northern mainland during February, there was an easing in intensity from January conditions. Soil moisture content in northern Australia is typically highest during the summer and early autumn months.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time affects crop growth and can be an indicator of agricultural drought.

High evaporative stress continues in parts of central and southern mainland

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 25 February 2025 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• western Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania
• most of South Australia
• the Northern Territory excluding some parts of Arnhem Land
• southern and north-eastern Western Australia
• western and southern Queensland
• western New South Wales and Victoria
• most of South Australia and Tasmania
• the Northern Territory excluding some parts of Arnhem Land
• southern Western Australia.

While moisture stress decreased over parts of northern Australia during February, particularly in north-east Northern Territory and western Queensland, areas of moisture stress expanded and intensified in southern Queensland, Tasmania, south-east South Australia into western Victoria, and in southern Western Australia during February. Above to very much above average mean maximum temperatures contributed to increased evaporative demand across much of the country excluding the north-east. Areas of significantly elevated (below −2) ESI developed in parts of south-east South Australia, consistent with areas of intensifying soil moisture deficits.

The ESI represents the anomaly of the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration standardised for the time of year. A lower ratio indicates higher vegetation moisture stress due to limited water availability and can be an indicator of agricultural and ecological drought.

See this journal publication for further details on calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring.

Rainfall deficiencies and water shortage at the end of February

• February rainfall was average or below average for most of southern Australia.
• Rainfall deficiency areas increased in extent in southern states.
• Areas of soil moisture deficiency intensified across much of southern Australia and eased in parts of northern mainland.
• Streamflow was low at many sites in southern Australia and in southern Queensland.
• Many water storages in south-eastern states were 10 to 50% lower than the same time last year, and water storages for Adelaide and Perth were around 40% full.

Low streamflow in southern Australia and southern Queensland

Lower than average streamflow (based on records since 1975) was observed in February at 25% of the 858 sites with available data. These were mostly associated with below average rainfall and dry catchment conditions. These were observed in:

• south-west of Western Australia (43% of 77 sites)
• west and central east areas of the South East Coast, Victoria drainage division (40% of 93 sites)
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (60% of 10 sites)
• across the Murray–Darling Basin drainage division (29% of the 335 sites)
• across Tasmania (67% of 9 sites).
• southern areas of the North East Coast drainage division (13% of 158 sites)
• west and north-east areas of the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (8% of 26 sites)
• across the Pilbara–Gascoyne (33% of 15 sites)
• across Lake Eyre Basin (43% of 7 sites)
• scattered sites across the South East Coast, NSW drainage division (10% of 113 sites)

Very much below average streamflow (lowest 10% of years since 1975) was observed at 3% of sites, in:

• western Victoria and north-west of Tasmania
• a few sites in the Murray–Darling Basin
• the west of the Carpentaria Coast in Queensland
• the south-west of Western Australia.

February streamflow was average at 57% of sites, spread across Australia. Higher than average streamflow was observed at 18% of sites, including 7% of sites with very much above average streamflow (highest 10% of years since 1975). This was due to above average rainfall and wet catchment conditions in those regions, including:

• the De Grey River in Western Australia's Pilbara district
• north-eastern areas of Queensland
• south-eastern areas of New South Wales
• eastern Victoria.

Low storage levels in the west of Western Australia, southern Australia, Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of February, the total water storage in Australia (across 306 public storages) was at 70.4% of capacity, 1.2% lower than the previous month and 8.5% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes decreased in February for 222 public storages and were relatively low in several regions including:

• central Queensland
• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• western Victoria
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division
• western and central Tasmania
• Harding in Pilbara-Gascoyne Drainage
• urban areas of Perth.

The decrease in storage volumes were generally in regions that had dry catchment conditions during February and inflows to storages were low.

Southern and eastern Australia's storages remain low

There has been a continued decline in storage levels in February for many storages in southern Australia. With dry catchment conditions and increased demand during the irrigation season (October to March), the storage volume decreased across both northern and southern Murray–Darling Basin. Combined storages in the Murray–Darling Basin were 60.9% full at the end of February, a 4.3% decrease from January and a 19.5% decrease from the same time last year. Menindee Lakes, in the west of New South Wales was 33.1% full at the end of February, a decrease of 6.2% from January and a 16.4% decrease from the same time last year.

Water storage in Hume dam was at 33.5% of capacity at the end of February, an 8.2% decrease from January and a 42.3% decrease from the same time last year. The Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply in western Victoria for both domestic and agricultural purposes, was 40.9% full at the end of February, experienced a 2.9% decrease from January and a 20.1% decrease from the same time last year.

Storage volumes decreased in February for many central Queensland storages such as Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga. The overall storage volume in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system, an important rural water supply for central Queensland communities, was 24.1% full at the end of February by 1.2% from January and a 20.3% decrease from the same time last year. The water storage in Fairbairn was at 22.3% of capacity at the end of February, a 1.2% decrease from January and a 20.8% decrease from the same time last year.

Water storage in Great Lake in central-northern Tasmania, the second largest by capacity in the state, was 30.8% full at the end of the month, a 1.4% decrease from January and an increase of 4.0% from the same time last year.

The Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division was at 30.2% of capacity at the end of February, a 1.4% decrease from January and a 6.2% decrease from the same time last year.

At the end of February, the surface water storages supplying most capital cities were high (over 81% of their accessible capacity), with the exception of storages supplying Adelaide (37.9%), Perth (41.0%)had severe rainfall deficiencies for extended periods during the last three years. Long-term declines in surface water inflows to Perth's storages means the city's water supply is reliant on desalination and groundwater sources. Adelaide surface water storages were 37.9% full at the end of February, a 3.2% decrease from January, and a 15.9% decrease from the same time last year. Adelaide's water supply requirements are augmented by alternative sources, mostly water transfers from the River Murray, with some supply from desalinated water and groundwater.