Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Welcome rainfall in parts of the south, drier than average across much of Australia

June rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Junes since 1900) for much of Australia including:

• large parts of Western Australia
• areas of New South Wales
• most of western and southern Queensland
• southern Northern Territory
• northern and parts of eastern South Australia.
• much of western Tasmania
• parts of west Gippsland in Victoria

June rainfall was above to very much above average for parts of northern Queensland, southern Victoria, scattered areas in the south-west of Western Australia and parts of eastern Tasmania.

Further details: Monthly climate summaries, Latest National climate summary

Recent weather patterns

Until June in 2025, weather patterns across southern Australia have been dominated by slow-moving high pressure systems, a continuation of the weather patterns seen throughout much of 2024 that have contributed to persistent warm and dry conditions.

During June, the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) returned to neutral values for a fortnight, and a series of low pressure systems and associated cold fronts crossed southern Australia bringing rainfall and cooler weather.

Persistent low rainfall in recent months

Persistent low rainfall conditions have affected much of southern Australia in recent seasons. Since early 2023, severe rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% since 1900) have developed in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania. Rainfall deficiencies have been especially significant in regions with western-facing coastlines, including the south-east of South Australia. During this time, soil moisture content, runoff, streamflow and water storage levels have all decreased across much of southern Australia.

Maps: Recent and historical rainfall maps

Climate change

State of the Climate 2024 has indicated that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. While some areas can have above average rainfall in some seasons, for southern Australia as a whole, April to October rainfall has been below the historical (1961–1990) average in 24 the last 31 years since 1994.

The declining trend in rainfall is associated with a trend towards higher surface atmospheric pressure in the region and a shift in large-scale weather patterns. There have been more highs, fewer lows and a reduction in the number of rain-producing lows and cold fronts. Over the southern Australia region, there has been an increase in density, and therefore frequency, of high pressure systems across all seasons.

Long-range forecast for July to September

The long-range forecast, released on 3 July 2025 for July to September 2025 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the interior and east, with roughly equal chances of being above, below or near-average for western and south-eastern Australia.
• Warmer than average days and nights are very likely across most of Australia.

Deficiencies for the 6 months since January 2025

For the year-to-date 6-month period since January 2025, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• south-eastern and central inland South Australia
• much of western Victoria and an area from south Gippsland extending north-east into central Victoria
• much of Tasmania, except parts of the east coast
• parts of the west coast of Western Australia, extending inland, and an area in the central interior
• parts of western New South Wales

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• a small area in the west of Western Australia
• large areas in the agricultural regions of South Australia
• parts of north-western Victoria, south-west Gippsland and north-central Victoria
• small areas in north-western Tasmania

Since May, rainfall deficiency areas have expanded in the west and interior of Western Australia, parts of western New South Wales, and extend further inland in South Australia. Following average to above average rainfall in June, deficiencies have eased from lowest on record (for all January to May periods since 1900), to severe deficiency (lowest 5% for all January to June periods since 1900) for parts of:

• the west of Western Australia
• southern South Australia
• south-western Victoria
• north-western Tasmania.

Deficiencies for the 17 months since April 2023

For the 17-month period since February 2024, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• agricultural regions of South Australia
• Victoria, except areas along the northern border and east Gippsland
• small areas of southern New South Wales
• coastal western Tasmania, Bass Strait islands and a small area of the east coast
• areas along coastal south-west Western Australia.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• most of the agricultural areas of South Australia
• from west facing coasts in Victoria, extending inland to the far north-west, and south-west Gippsland
• part of the north-west coastline in Tasmania.

Compared to May, there is little change in the extent and severity of the rainfall deficiencies.

Deficiencies for the 27 months since May 2023

For the 27-month period since April 2023, which includes the last two southern cool seasons, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• large areas in the south-west and west of Western Australia
• agricultural regions of South Australia
• south-western Victoria and small areas in the east
• parts of the west and east coasts of Tasmania, the Bass Strait islands, and some inland areas
• a small area of alpine north-eastern Victoria into south-eastern New South Wales.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• a large region extending inland around Perth in Western Australia
• parts of the Yorke Peninsula and Mid North districts in South Australia
• the coastline from Warrnambool to Cape Otway in Victoria.

Since May, there has been a slight decrease in the area of lowest on record rainfall. However, the extent of the rainfall deficiency areas is largely unchanged.

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Soil moisture deficits ease in severity but persist in the south and west

June root zone soil moisture (0-1 m) was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Junes since 1911) in:

• parts of central and southern Western Australia
• most of South Australia excluding the north-west
• most of Victoria except for East Gippsland
• western and northern Tasmania
• parts of western and northern New South Wales
• small areas of inland south-east Queensland and the north-east coast.

June rainfall reduced soil moisture deficits in the south and west, where large areas had been experiencing very much below average root zone soil moisture in May. However, below average conditions persist in some of the southern agricultural areas, and the rain was not sufficient to restore deeper soil moisture in most areas.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time is an indicator of agricultural drought, affecting ongoing crop growth, and the pasture growth required for livestock. During the southern winter cropping season low soil moisture can impact crop emergence, establishment and growth.

High evaporative stress across much of southern Australia

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 30 June 2025 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• central and southern South Australia
• Victoria excluding the far east
• western Tasmania
• parts of western and coastal New South Wales
• central and south-east Western Australia, including parts of the south-west
• areas of inland south-east Queensland.

Evaporative stress eased in parts of central New South Wales, northern Tasmania and south-west Western Australia, but remains significantly elevated (ESI below −2) in south-eastern South Australia, western Victoria, north-western New South Wales and pockets of southern Western Australia.

See this journal publication for further details on calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring.

Rainfall deficiencies and water storage at the end of June

• June rainfall was below average across much of Australia and above average across parts of northern Queensland and small areas of southern Australia.
• Year-to-date rainfall deficiency areas eased in severity in some areas of southern Australia but expanded in parts of western New South Wales.
• The extent and severity of long-term rainfall deficiencies is largely unchanged.
• Across much of southern and western Australia root zone soil moisture deficiencies eased in severity, although it remained below average for this time of year.
• Streamflow was below average at many sites across southern and western Australia, with some locations recording their lowest June streamflow on record.
• Some storages in the southern states have declined by up to 50% compared to this time last year.
• Urban water storages in Adelaide and Perth remain below 40% of capacity, following prolonged rainfall deficiencies.

Low streamflow in western and southern Australia

Streamflow was lower than average at 32% of the 891 sites with available data across Australia in June (based on records since 1975), with 22 sites recording their lowest June streamflow on record. These below-average flows were primarily associated with below average rainfall, which reduced soil moisture and runoff across many catchments. Regions with a high proportion of sites showing lower-than-average streamflow included:

• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (90% of 10 sites)
• much of Tasmania (86% of 21 sites)
• the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (66% of 76 sites)
• the South East Coast drainage division of Victoria (53% of 96 sites)
• the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (45% of 15 sites)
• the Murray–Darling Basin (35% of 338 sites), particularly throughout the southern half of the Basin.

Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded at 11% of sites in June. These sites were concentrated in:

• southern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin, South East Coast of Victoria drainage division, and South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia
• isolated or scattered areas across Tasmania, North East Coast drainage division of Queensland, South Australian Gulf drainage division, and the Pilbara–Gascoyne region
• a single site in the Carpentaria Coast drainage division.

Streamflow in June was around average at 40% of the 891 sites with available data, predominantly across eastern coastal and inland areas of Queensland and New South Wales. Despite below average rainfall across much of Australia, higher than average streamflow was recorded at 28% of sites, with 4% of sites observing very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975). Sites with above average streamflow included:

• almost a quarter of sites across the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (23% of 30 sites)
• sites along the South East Coast drainage division of New South Wales (12% of 112 sites)
• scattered sites across the North East Coast drainage division of Queensland and Murray–Darling Basin, as well as a few sites in the Tanami–Timor Sea Coast drainage division.

Low storage levels in the west of Western Australia, southern Australia, Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of June, total water storage across Australia—based on 306 public storages—was at 64.9% of capacity, a slight decrease from the previous month, and 8.7% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes declined in 144 storages during June, with relatively low levels observed in several regions, including:

• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division
• central Tasmania
• central eastern Queensland
• the Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division
• urban areas of Perth and Adelaide.

These declines generally reflected low inflows during June in the affected regions.

North East Coast of Queensland

Storage volume decreased in 57 of the 69 storages in the North East Coast drainage division of Queensland during June, including Lake Macdonald and Little Nerang. Several storages remained below 50% of capacity at the end of June, notably Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga—Queensland’s second- and fourth-largest storages, respectively.

• Fairbairn decreased by 1.4%, finishing the month at 22.9%. This decline contributed to reduced volumes in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system, which supplies water to rural communities across central Queensland.
• Lake Awoonga also decreased by 0.8%, ending June at 35.3%.

Overall, storages across the North East Coast drainage division of Queensland were at 76.8% of capacity at the end of June—a monthly decrease of 0.9%, but 1.1% higher than at the same time last year.

South-eastern Australia

Multiple storages across the Murray–Darling Basin and South East Coast drainage division of Victoria finished below 50% of capacity by the end of June. The storages below 50% included Lake Eucumbene and Hume dam, Australia’s third- and seventh-largest reservoirs, respectively. Lake Eucumbene decreased by 3.5%, finishing at 20.2% by the end of June. Other large storages, such as Dartmouth Dam and Lake Eildon, also declined during the month.

Overall storage volume across the South East Coast drainage division of Victoria decreasing by 2.0%, ending the month at 34.0%. Although many storages in the Murray–Darling Basin declined during June, the overall volume increased by 2.7%, finishing the month at 60.7%. The increase was largely driven by inflows to larger storages, while many smaller reservoirs and weirs, such as Lake Cargelligo, experienced declines (Lake Cargelligo fell by 13.5% during June). Despite the monthly increase, total storage in the Murray–Darling Basin remained 17.1% lower than at the same time last year.

In the Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply for domestic and agricultural use in western Victoria, storages increased slightly, reaching 35.9% by the end of June. However, this was 18% lower than at the same time last year.

In Tasmania, the two largest storages—Lake Gordon and Great Lake—were at 49.1% and 27.6%, respectively, by the end of June. Between the two, only Lake Gordon experienced a decrease during the month. Total storage across Tasmania was 54.7%, down 0.9% from May, but approximately 1% higher than this time last year.

Western Australia

The Harding Reservoir, the only major storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division, was at 23.2% of capacity at the end of June, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month, and 6.8% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes across the region saw little recovery during the 2024 wet season, leaving the reservoir extremely low.

Urban storages

At the end of June, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were above 70% of accessible capacity, with the exceptions of Adelaide and Perth. Both cities remain around 35–40% full, following an extended period of severe rainfall deficiencies reducing surface water inflows into regional storages.

Perth's surface water storages were 36.9% full at the end of June, an increase of 0.7% from the previous month, and unchanged from the same time last year. The three largest storages supplying Perth—South Dandalup, Serpentine, and Canning reservoirs—all remained below 50% capacity:

• South Dandalup: 5.1%
• Serpentine: 28.1%
• Canning: 48.7%

The long-term decline in surface water inflows, driven by underlying climate change, means Perth now relies heavily on desalination and groundwater to meet urban water demand.

Adelaide's storages were 37.5% full at the end of June, an increase of 3.2% from the previous month, but 6.9% lower than at the same time last year. The five largest storages in the region remained below 50%, with Mount Bold and South Para reservoirs sitting at 21.2% and 27.7%, respectively. Adelaide’s urban water supply is augmented by transfers from the River Murray, with additional support from desalination and groundwater. River Murray pipelines also supply water to the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and parts of south-east South Australia.

In response to rainfall deficiencies, the Victorian desalination plant has been buffering surface water storages supplying Melbourne and Geelong.