Drought
February rainfall generally low, deficiencies increase
February rainfall was below average for Australia as a whole, despite very heavy rainfall in large parts of northern Queensland, which resulted in flooding.
Below to very much rainfall was extensive, affecting most of Western Australia, South Australia, the Northern Territory, southeastern quarter of Queensland and inland south of the State, and the northeastern third of New South Wales and the far west of the State. Rainfall was near-average for much of southeastern Australia.
February rainfall was the lowest on record for a number of stations in southern Queensland, New South Wales, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory.
An active monsoon trough, and a slow-moving low pressure system produced extremely heavy rainfall in tropical Queensland from late January into early February, causing flooding on Queensland's tropical coast between Daintree and Mackay, and parts of the western Peninsula and Gulf coast (see Special Climate Statement An extended period of heavy rainfall and flooding in tropical Queensland).
While flooding was severe on parts of the coast around Townsville, and continued for multiple weeks in the Gulf Country and Northwest, rainfall has only alleviated rainfall deficiencies in areas concentrated around the Northern Territory border in northwestern Queensland and at the eastern edge (roughly around Longreach) of the area of deficiencies which extend across the southeastern quadrant of Queensland.
Elsewhere deficiencies have persisted or increased.
5-month rainfall deficiencies
Northern Australia receives the bulk of its rainfall between October and April (the northern wet season), so rainfall deficiencies during this period are particularly significant, and will not usually be removed before the following wet season. For the 2018–19 northern wet season so far, rainfall has been below average over most of the northern Territory, the northern half of Western Australia, and most of the southern half of Queensland.
Following low February rainfall outside of northern Queensland, deficiencies have increased across northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, southeastern Queensland, and northern New South Wales. Deficiencies have decreased in northwestern Tasmania, but still persist across the west of the State.
Exceptional rainfall in much of northern Queensland has removed deficiencies in western Queensland.
Serious or severe rainfall deficiencies for the period starting October 2018 affect much of the coast of northern Western Australia, from Northwest Cape to the Kimberley; a large area in the central Northern Territory, and isolated pockets about the Top End coast; a large area in the southeastern quadrant of Queensland, extending into adjacent northern New South Wales; some areas of northeastern South Australia; across western Tasmania; and isolated pockets of southern Victoria in West Gippsland and on the west coast around Warrnambool.
11-month rainfall deficiencies
Deficiencies which emerged across southern and eastern Australia following a poor wet season (southern Australia receives the bulk of its rainfall between April and November) have persisted through a drier than average summer.
Compared to last month, deficiencies have most notably increased across the Northern Territory and the north of Western Australia, eastern South Australia, and northern New South Wales.
Exceptional rainfall in much of northern Queensland has removed deficiencies in much of western Queensland.
Serious or severe rainfall deficiencies are in place across eastern South Australia (except the extreme southeastern tip); across Gippsland in Victoria, and part of the Central District; much of western, northern, and central southern New South Wales; southern Queensland, extending north to around Longreach; much of the Northern Territory away from the southwest and the Top End, where only small pockets are affected; and across much of the north of Western Australia, as well as areas in the central Gascoyne, and much of the South Coast and Southeast Coastal districts.
23-month rainfall deficiencies
Exceptional rainfall in much of northern Queensland has reduced deficiencies in northwestern Queensland, but they persist along the border and in the Channel Country.
Deficiencies have increased across eastern Australia, along the western coast of Australia, and in the Northern Territory.
Serious or severe rainfall deficiencies persist across southern and central Queensland, except for the coastal southeast and most of the Wide Bay and Burnett District, and also for parts of the west of the State in the Channel Country; most of New South Wales, except the northeast coast and most southern regions; across eastern Victoria and the east of the Central District; areas of coastal eastern and northern Tasmania; much of the eastern half of South Australia away from the far southeast and far northeast; and areas of the central Northern Territory.
For the Murray-Darling Basin rainfall for this period was the second-lowest on record behind 1900–02, compared to all other 23-month periods ending in February since 1900.
In Western Australia deficiencies are in place along the coast from about Port Hedland to the South Coastal District.
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Soil moisture
Compared to January, relative lower-layer soil moisture (from 10 cm to 100 cm deep) has decreased across northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland, parts of Western Australia in the south, west, and north, the north of the Northern Territory, and in parts of Central Australia.
Following flooding rains in the north of Queensland, lower-layer soil moisture has increased across much of the north and west of the State.
Soil moisture for February was below average for much of the west, south and north of Western Australia; most of the Northern Territory; most of South Australia except the northwest; the southeastern quadrant of Queensland and along the southern border; northeastern New South Wales, as well as parts of the west and east of the State; much of Victoria except parts of the northeast and northwest; and western Tasmania.
Soil moisture was above average for a large part of Queensland, covering most of southern half of Cape York Peninsula and across the base of the Peninsula from the Central Coast to the northwest, and extending into the Gulf Country and Central West districts, and the northwest of the Channel Country. Soil moisture was also above average for a pocket of the southeast of the Interior District in Western Australia.
- February rainfall below to very much below average for much of Australia
- Rainfall above average for parts of northern Queensland, from the northwest to the central coast, and parts of Cape York Peninsula
- Very heavy rainfall in northern Queensland reduced deficiencies in some areas of the west and adjacent Northern Territory, but for most of Australia deficiencies have generally increased
- Lower-level soil moisture below average for February across most of Australia; above average for large areas of northern and western Queensland
- Temperatures above average in most areas, adding to moisture stress
Product code: IDCKGD0AR0
- See also:Links open in new window
- Water storages
- Groundwater
Soil moisture details are reported when there are periods of significant rainfall deficits.
Soil moisture data is from the Bureau's Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape (AWRA-L) model, developed through the Water Information Research and Development Alliance between the Bureau and CSIRO.
See: Australian Landscape Water Balance.
Also available at Weekly Rainfall Updates
Also available at Maps – recent conditions
Rainfall and temperature outlooks
Rainfall and temperature outlooks outline likely conditions over three-month periods. Outlooks are available for single months, three months, and for any location in Australia. Formats include text summaries, maps, graphs and video.
Seasonal streamflow forecasts
Australian streamflows are among the most variable in the world. Seasonal streamflow forecasts extends water management decision making capability. Forecasts are issued monthly.
AWRA-L water balance maps
Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape maps include maps of soil moisture and water fluxes contributing to changes in soil moisture (rainfall, transpiration, soil evaporation, surface runoff and deep drainage).
Climate statements archive
The archive includes previous monthly, seasonal and annual climate summaries for nation-wide, state/territory and capital city conditions.
- Water Information
Water resources assessments and forecasts - Water and the Land
Weather and climate for primary industries - Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
(ABARES) is a research bureau within the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry aimed at Australia's primary industries. - Climate Change in Australia
Bureau/CSIRO website, including rainfall and temperature projections and impacts for the coming decades. - CSIRO-BoM Drought-EC Report (July 2008)
An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events, and accompanying Supplementary Information.
What is drought?
Drought is a prolonged, abnormally dry period when the amount of available water is insufficient to meet our normal use. Drought is not simply low rainfall; if it was, much of inland Australia would be in almost perpetual drought. Because people use water in so many different ways, there is no universal definition of drought. Meteorologists monitor the extent and severity of drought in terms of rainfall deficiencies. Agriculturalists rate the impact on primary industries, hydrologists compare ground water levels, and sociologists define it by social expectations and perceptions.
It is generally difficult to compare one drought to another, since each drought differs in the seasonality, location, spatial extent and duration of the associated rainfall deficiencies. Additionally, each drought is accompanied by varying temperatures and soil moisture deficits.
Rainfall averages, variability and trends
An area experiences a rainfall deficit when the total rain received is less than the average rainfall for that period.
- Average rainfall: How much rain do you expect?
- Rainfall variability: How consistent is rainfall in your area?
- Rainfall history: Check tables, graphs and data from your local weather station.
- Rainfall trends: Has your rainfall changed?
Definitions
Definitions
Lowest on record - lowest since at least 1900 when the data analysed begin.
Severe deficiency - rainfalls in the lowest 5% of historical totals.
Serious deficiency - rainfalls in the lowest 10% of historical totals,
but not in the lowest 5%.
Very much below average - rainfalls in the lowest 10% of historical totals.
Below average - rainfalls in the lowest 30% of historical totals,
but not in the lowest 10%.
Average - rainfalls in the middle 40% of historical totals.
Above average - rainfalls in the highest 30% of historical totals,
but not in the highest 10%.
Very much above average - rainfalls in the highest 10% of historical totals.
Australian Government drought assistance
Department of Agriculture and Water Resources information and contacts:
Archive
For the week to 19 March 2019, rainfall was recorded in parts of western and northern Western Australia, most of the northern half of the Northern Territory, northern and eastern Queensland, northeastern and east coast New South Wales, East Gippsland in Victoria, and small areas in western Tasmania.
In the first part of the week, surface troughs extended from the north and inland west of Western Australia, across central parts of the Northern Territory, and from northwest to southeast Queensland. Showers and thunderstorms produced moderate falls in parts of the Kimberley, Pilbara and Gascoyne in Western Australia, the Gulf Country, Cape York Peninsula, and across central to southeast Queensland.
As the troughs deepened over the north and east, further moderate falls were recorded in the western Kimberley, the northwest of the Northern Territory and parts of Cape York Peninsula. An upper-level trough combined with the surface trough in the east, and generated moderate falls, with locally heavy falls in areas of central and southeast Queensland, and also around the Greater Sydney region. A weak cold front crossed Tasmania and generated light falls in the west of the State.
From the middle of the week, a monsoon trough to the north of Australia triggered thunderstorm activity in the Kimberley, the Top End of the Northern Territory, and northern Queensland. A series of upper-level troughs persisted over central and southern Queensland, and combined with the surface trough extending through inland Queensland and New South Wales, while a trough and associated low pressure system formed near the east coast. These features produced widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, and produced moderate falls to the end of the week across much of eastern Queensland, northeastern and east coast New South Wales, and far eastern Victoria; locally heavier falls were reported in some parts. An inland trough produced thunderstorms with moderate falls over the Goldfields in Western Australia.
In the last part of the week, an embedded tropical low on the monsoon trough in the Coral Sea tracked towards the eastern Cape York Peninsula and quickly intensified into tropical cyclone Trevor, with moderate falls reported on the southern flank of the system. Trevor made landfall on the afternoon of 19 March, just south of Lockhart River as a category 3 system.
A tropical low developed to the northwest of the Kimberley coast within the monsoon trough at the end of week, which produced showers and storms, with moderate falls reported in the Kimberley. A surface trough extended from the Pilbara and along the west coast of Western Australia, and produced moderate falls in the Pilbara, eastern Gascoyne and towards the southern coast of Western Australia.
Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm were recorded in coastal parts of the Kimberley and Gascoyne in Western Australia, small areas of Cape York Peninsula, central and southeast Queensland, and parts of the central coast of New South Wales. Isolated totals in excess of 200mm were recorded around Greater Sydney and the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, including the highest weekly rainfall total of 306 mm at the Gold Coast Seaway in Queensland.
Rainfall totals in excess of 50 mm were recorded in spots of the Kimberley and Pilbara coast in Western Australia, small areas of the northwestern and northern Top End in the Northern Territory, much of western Cape York Peninsula, through parts of central and southeast Queensland, and from the central to southeast coast of New South Wales.
Rainfall totals between 10 mm and 50 mm were recorded in parts of western and northern Western Australia, much of the Top End in the Northern Territory, the Gulf Country, northern and eastern Queensland, northeastern and eastern New South Wales, a small area of eastern Victoria and very small patch of western Tasmania.
Little or no rainfall was recorded in remaining parts of Western Australia; South Australia; the southern half of the Northern Territory; the southwestern quarter of Queensland; central to western New South Wales; Victoria away from the far east, and most of Tasmania.
Impact of recent rainfall on deficits
The Drought Statement, issued on 6 March 2019, discusses rainfall deficits over Australia for the 5-month (October 2018–February 2019), 11-month (April 2018– February 2019) and 23-month (April 2017– February 2019) periods. Rainfall deficit maps are available for these periods as well as for standard periods.
The maps below show the percentage of mean rainfall that has been received for the rainfall deficit period for the 5-month, 11-month and 23-month periods ending 19 March 2019.
Rainfall for the period 1 October 2018 to 19 March 2019
For the 5-month period, serious or severe rainfall deficiencies are in place across much of the northwest coast of northern Western Australia; a large area in the central Northern Territory, and isolated pockets about the Top End coast; a large area in the southeastern interior of Queensland, extending into adjacent northern New South Wales; small areas of northeastern South Australia; across western Tasmania; and isolated pockets of southern Victoria in West Gippsland and on the west coast around Warrnambool.
Rainfall in the past week has eased deficiencies slightly in parts of the Pilbara coast in Western Australia, and in some areas of the southeastern interior of Queensland.
Affected areas of western Tasmania have generally received less than 80% of average rainfall for the period. Areas in the Kimberley in Western Australia, southern Queensland and northern New South Wales generally received between 30% and 60% of average, while affected areas in the Pilbara and central Northern Territory generally received less than 40%.
Rainfall for the period 1 April 2018 to 19 March 2019
Serious or severe rainfall deficiencies are in place at the 11-month period across eastern South Australia except the in the far southeast; across Gippsland in Victoria and part of the Central District; much of western, northern, and central southern New South Wales; most of southern Queensland, extending north to around Longreach; much of the Northern Territory away from the southwest and the Top End, where only small pockets are affected; and across much of the north of Western Australia, as well as areas in the central Gascoyne, and much of the South Coast and Southeast Coastal districts.
The rain that fell over the previous week eased deficiencies slightly in parts of the eastern Pilbara; also in small areas in the southeastern interior of Queensland.
Affected areas of southern coastal Western Australia and the northern Kimberley, southeastern South Australia, eastern Victoria, central to eastern parts of New South Wales, and east coast Queensland have generally received between 40% and 70% of average rainfall for the period. Affected areas in northwestern New South Wales, northeastern South Australia, central parts of the Northern Territory, the Pilbara, and southwestern Queensland have received around 20% to 40% of average rainfall for the period.
Rainfall for the period 1 April 2017 to 19 March 2019
Serious or severe rainfall deficiencies at the 23-month time scale are evident from the central to southern interior to and the southwest of Queensland, and also for parts of the far west of the State in the Channel Country; most of New South Wales, except the northeast coast and most southern regions; across eastern Victoria and the east of the Central District; areas of coastal eastern and northern Tasmania. Deficiencies are also in place across much of the eastern half of South Australia away from the far southeast and far northeast; areas of the central Northern Territory, and along the coast of Western Australia from about Port Hedland to the South Coastal District.
The rainfall in the last week has only slightly eased deficiencies in a small area of the southeastern interior of Queensland, but had little impact elsewhere.
Deficiencies in affected areas are generally between 30% and 70% of average for the period, and at the lower end of the range about the coastal Pilbara and the conjunction of Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia.
Product code: IDCKGRWAR0
