South Australia in 2010: 3rd wettest year on record.

  • South Australia had its 3rd wettest year on record, with the state-wide area averaged total just over one and a half times the long-term annual average.
  • Rainfall was above average across almost all of the state. The far northeast corner of South Australia received two to three times its annual average rainfall.
  • Almost every month had average to above average rainfall across South Australia, except for June when rainfall totals were below average across most of the State. Growing Season (April to October) rainfall was above average and wettest since 1992. 
  • A total of 11 locations recorded their highest single day rainfall totals on record during 2010, with Mindarie in the Murray Mallee district recording its wettest year on record.
  • In 2010 the mean temperature for South Australia as a whole was 19.5°C this being equal to the average temperature for the standard climatological base period of 1961 to 1990.
  • For Adelaide, temperatures were slightly warmer than average. Mean annual maximum temperature was 0.3°C above average.
  • Temperatures for the decade from 2001 to 2010 averaged +0.7 °C for South Australia, making the last ten years the warmest decade since records began in 1900, continuing a steady increase in temperatures since the 1970’s.
  • South Australian rainfall over the last decade has been below average across the agricultural areas, particularly in the eastern districts, tending above average in the far west of the state.

Rainfall

The year 2010 commenced with an El Niño event present in the Pacific Ocean. Above average rainfall accompanied the breakdown of the El Niño during the autumn. The El Niño event transitioned into a La Niña by early winter and coincided with the development of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in August. Above average rainfall, particularly over northern and eastern Australia is typical of El Niño breakdowns and La Niña periods. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole events are also often associated with above average rainfall over southern Australia, as warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean feed moisture south from the northwest.
The start of 2010 saw average to below average rainfall for large parts of South Australia in January through March, with the exception of the northeast which received well above average rainfall in February due to the passage of a monsoon low from the NT. Rainfall totals then tended average to above average across much of the state right through to years end, apart from June when rainfall was predominantly below average state-wide.
The combination of a La Niña event and the negative Indian Ocean Dipole through 2010 provided extremely favourable conditions for increased rainfall over South Australia, particularly in pastoral areas during spring, with several severe thunderstorm and flash flooding events recorded across the State. As a result of these tropical influences, South Australia recorded its third wettest year on record, with a state average of 362 mm) following 1974 (484 mm) and 1973 (385 mm), and its wettest spring on record (133 mm) exceeding spring 1975 by 3 mm: 1975 was the previous time that both a La Niña event and a negative IOD event of similar strength occurred simultaneously. See the South Australia in spring 2010 summary for more information. Across the whole of South Australia, rainfall in 2010 was 161% of the average. Moomba Airport in the North-east district was exceptional, recording 660.2 mm against an annual average of  just 179.2 mm, its second highest rainfall total after 1974 (869.2 mm) considered over the combined rainfall record for Moomba at the town and airport.
The autumn break start to the growing season (April to October) arrived for most agricultural areas by late May, with average to above average rainfall through until the end of the season, with the exception of June and July where rainfall was below average. Overall, the agricultural districts received above average rainfall for the growing season, with conditions generally the wettest since 1992.
Adelaide (Kent Town) annual rainfall was 592.6 mm recorded over 128 rain days, which exceeds the annual average of 549.1 mm (average is calculated over all years of record from 1978 to 2009). The last time Adelaide received more than its average annual rainfall was in 2005. The record highest annual rainfall for the complete Adelaide record (measurements made at both Kent Town and West Terrace, back to 1839) was recorded in 1992, with 883.2 mm in the gauge. The wettest overall station across South Australia was Uraidla with 1195.6 mm, followed by 1180.8 mm at Crafers (Mount Lofty), both in the Mount Lofty Ranges. The wettest single daily rainfall total was of 147 mm at Waikerie in the Upper Murray Valley on 8 December 2010. The lowest annual rainfall total for 2010 in the state was at Coober Pedy Airport, with 179.8 mm recorded over 59 rain days. This was still above the average of 123.4 mm for this location. Several stations broke daily rainfall records. Most of these occurred in the Barossa Valley in severe thunderstorm activity on the 7th and 8th of December.

Some sites had their highest total rainfall on record. Some sites had their highest total rainfall for at least 25 years. Some sites had their highest daily rainfall on record. See a map of rainfall deciles.

Temperature

The mean temperature (the average of daytime maximum temperatures and overnight minimum temperatures) for South Australia for 2010 was equal to the 1961-1990 mean of 19.5°C. In comparison, 2009 was the warmest year on record with temperatures 1.3°C above average.
For the decade from 2001 to 2010, South Australian temperatures have averaged +0.7°C above the 1961-1990 mean temperature, reflecting what has generally been a steady rise in annual temperatures for South Australia since the 1970’s.
Adelaide (Kent Town) in 2010 had an annual mean temperature of 17.5°C, 0.3°C above the normal of 17.2°C.

Maximum temperature

Annual maximum temperatures were up to 1.5°C below average in northern parts of the state in 2010, tending to close to average in the southeast. Overall, the annual maximum temperature across the state for 2010 was 0.6°C below the 1961-90 average of 26.7°C. This is consistent with historical patterns of rainfall and temperature, with high rainfall years having, in general, more cloud cover and lower daytime temperatures.  The warmest year on record for maximum temperatures across the state as a whole was 2007 (1.4°C above average), the coldest was in 1956 (1.3°C below average).
The first four months of 2010 were generally warmer than average, apart from the north where temperatures were generally cooler. A widespread heatwave event was experienced across south-eastern Australia in the second week of January, with temperatures 6°C to 10°C above average across the agricultural areas. Temperatures were then generally close to average from May to July. South Australia then experienced below average temperatures from August through to the end of the year, coinciding with the period of highest rainfall.
Adelaide’s annual maximum temperature for 2010 was 22.5°C, which is 0.2°C above the long-term average of 22.3°C. The warmest year on record at Adelaide was 2007 where the mean maximum temperature was 23.7°C.
Oodnadatta in the Far North District was the warmest location in South Australia during 2010, with an average maximum temperature of 27.8°C, 1.2°C below its average. The coolest annual maximum in the state was 16.7°C at Mount Lofty.
The hottest day was 45.8°C recorded at both Keith (Munkora) and Murray Bridge (Pallamana Aerodrome) on the 11th of January 2010, with the coldest day recorded being on the 4th of August when Mount Lofty reported 5.7°C.

Some sites had their lowest mean daily maximum temperature for at least 25 years.

Minimum temperature

Annual mean minimum temperatures were generally close to average across South Australia in 2010, if tending slightly warmer than average. The annual minimum temperature across the state for 2010 was 0.5°C above the average of 12.2°C. Again this is consistent with conditions expected during La Niña events, when warmer night-time temperatures result from greater cloud cover trapping more heat overnight. Previously, 2009 was the warmest year on record for minimum temperatures across the state as a whole, being 1.2°C above average.  
Adelaide had an annual mean minimum temperature of 12.6°C, which is 0.4°C above the long-term average for the Kent Town recording site of 12.2°C. The warmest year for overnight temperatures was in 1973 where the mean minimum temperature was 13.5°C at West Terrace.
The coldest night recorded in 2010 was –4.5°C at Renmark Aerodrome on the 6th of July. The coolest overnight minimum temperatures were recorded at Yongala where the annual average overnight minimum temperature was 7.4°C. The warmest minimum temperatures annually were 14.7°C at Moomba Airport and at Oodnadatta Airport. The warmest night was on the 11th of January when the overnight minimum was 32.0°C at Port Pirie.

Some sites had their warmest night (highest daily minimum temperature) on record.

Severe Weather Summary for 2010

In the north, severe thunderstorms with wind gusts over 100km/h were recorded on a number of occasions during January, February and April. Several heavy rainfalls were recorded in February associated with thunderstorms, with Moomba (Tirrawarra) having its wettest day on record with 131.2 mm on the 13th. Severe thunderstorms also caused structural damage in southeast parts of the state in early February.

A broad swathe of strong to gale force northerly winds ahead of a cold front affected a large part of the state overnight on the 9th of July. Many locations on the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas, as well as the Mount Lofty Ranges, saw sustained periods of winds of 65-75 km/h. On the 14th of July, a cold front and thunderstorms tracked across the Adelaide region and southern districts. Squally winds, heavy rain and small hail generated flash flooding in the northern suburbs of Adelaide. On the same day, another thunderstorm spawned a tornado in Redbanks, near Mallala in the Mid North, which cut a swathe of damage through a farm property.  On the 18th of July, a fairly slow moving cluster of heavy convective showers tracked northeast across the southern suburbs of Adelaide during the early evening. The heavy rain caused localised flash flooding.   

Thunderstorm activity in the Lower South-East district on the 31st of July spawned a tornado, of likely high end F1 or low end F2 intensity, creating a narrow path of severe wind damage in Penola, damaging many buildings and causing several million dollars damage.  

On the 3rd of September a band of thunderstorms moving through the state produced heavy rain and large hail on the Yorke Peninsula, with associated flooding and widespread power outages. Later, on the 3rd of September, an intense low pressure system over southern South Australia produced gale force winds across Kangaroo Island, Yorke Peninsula, the Mid North, Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges and Murraylands districts. The winds caused widespread mostly tree related damage and widespread power outages.

Thunderstorms formed ahead of a strong cold front and developing low pressure system on the 14th of October. There were heavy falls of 1-2 cm sized hail on several properties around New Well in the Murray Valley, which caused severe crop damage.

On the 7th of December a trough and low pressure system produced widespread thunderstorm and lightning activity, heavy rainfall and severe winds across much of South Australia. The highest recorded wind gust was at Woomera (135 km/h). Several other centres recorded wind gusts in the 90 to 108 km/h range. Intense rainfall with this event saw 60 locations around South Australia breaking December daily rainfall totals, with an approximately 1 in 20 year recurrence. An area in the Barossa Valley east of Gawler extending across to Mannum saw rainfall intensities exceeding 1 in 100 average recurrence intervals. Flooding occurred at some locations in the Barossa Valley and Mount Lofty Ranges.

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Extremes in 2010
Hottest day 45.8 °C at Keith (Munkora) on 11 Jan
45.8 °C at Murray Bridge (Pallamana Aerodrome) on 11 Jan
Warmest days on average 27.8 °C at Oodnadatta Airport
Coolest days on average 16.7 °C at Mount Lofty
Coldest day 5.7 °C at Mount Lofty on 4 Aug
Coldest night -4.5 °C at Renmark Aero on 6 Jul
Coolest nights on average 7.4 °C at Yongala
Warmest nights on average 14.7 °C at Moomba Airport
14.7 °C at Oodnadatta Airport
Warmest night 32.0 °C at Port Pirie Nyrstar Comparison on 11 Jan
Warmest on average overall 21.3 °C at Oodnadatta Airport
Coolest on average overall 12.8 °C at Mount Lofty
Wettest overall 1195.6 mm at Uraidla
Driest overall 179.8 mm at Coober Pedy Airport
Highest wind gust 135 km/h at Woomera Aerodrome on 7 Dec

Record highest annual daily rainfall
Highest daily rainfall
in 2010 (mm)
Previous annual
wettest
Years of
record
Tanunda 94.0 on 8 Dec 87.1 on 17 Apr 1889 132
Birdwood 128.2 on 8 Dec 125.5 on 9 Feb 1969 124
Mount Bryan 76.6 on 8 Dec 62.4 on 27 Sep 1979 114
Mindarie 85.0 on 8 Dec 79.8 on 18 Feb 1946 98
Freeling 96.3 on 8 Dec 68.6 on 31 Oct 1997 48
Wilpena (Martins Well) 78.0 on 4 Sep 76.0 on 12 Nov 2000 40
Caliph 64.0 on 8 Dec 59.0 on 12 Nov 1998 37
Adelaide (Kent Town) 66.2 on 8 Dec 55.6 on 31 Oct 1997 34
Innamincka (Dullingari) 93.0 on 2 Feb 87.0 on 31 Mar 1988 27
Moomba (Tirrawarra) 131.2 on 13 Feb 116.0 on 15 May 2007 27
Wilpena (Oraparinna) 84.4 on 4 Sep 66.0 on 19 Oct 2005 26



Record highest total annual rainfall
Total rainfall
for 2010 (mm)
Previous annual
wettest
Years of
record
Annual
average
Mindarie 547.4 545.3 in 1992 92 302.7

Highest total annual rainfall for at least 25 years
Total rainfall
for 2010 (mm)
Most recent annual
at least this wet
Years since
wetter
Annual
average
Meningie 695.2 695.5 in 1946 62 468.0
Erudina 367.6 597.4 in 1974 36 189.6
Blinman 611.3 734.0 in 1974 35 307.7
Nildottie 473.2 540.3 in 1974 35 263.9
Port Wakefield 464.8 584.3 in 1974 34 332.0
Wolseley 618.0 680.0 in 1974 31 477.3
Marree Comparison 342.3 358.2 in 1979 30 162.5
Mount Dare 367.8 569.0 in 1976 29 164.3
Pinnaroo 500.8 525.7 in 1974 29 335.1
Parilla 514.0 584.3 in 1974 28 344.2



Lowest annual mean daily maximum temperature for at least 25 years
Mean daily maximum
temperature
for 2010 (°C)
Most recent annual
at least this cool
Years since
cooler
Annual
average
Hawker 24.2 23.9 in 1974 28 25.2
Oodnadatta Airport 27.8 27.7 in 1974 26 29.0



Record highest annual daily minimum temperature
Highest daily minimum
temperature
in 2010 (°C)
Previous annual
warmest
Years of
record
Annual
average
Neptune Island 23.3 on 11 Jan 23.2 on 20 Feb 1997 49 13.7
Warooka 28.4 on 11 Jan = 28.4 on 22 Jan 2006 46 11.4



Summary statistics for 2010
Maximum temperatures
(°C)
Minimum temperatures
(°C)
Rainfall
(millimetres)
Mean
for
2010
Diff
from
average
Highest
for
2010
Mean
for
2010
Diff
from
average
Lowest
for
2010
Total
for
2010
Average
annual
total
Rank
of
2010
Fraction
of annual
average
Northwest (district 16)
Andamooka 26.6 -1.0 43.3 27 Jan 13.9 +0.2 0.0 11 Jul 412.3 196.3 v high 210%
Coober Pedy Airport 26.3   43.4 27 Jan 13.9   0.7 1 Jul 179.8
Ernabella (Pukatja) 25.7   41.5 27 Jan 12.4   -3.7 2 Jul 448.0
Roxby Downs (Olympic Dam Aerodrome) 26.3   43.1 31 Dec 12.7   -2.0 8 Jul 320.2
Tarcoola Aero 26.7   45.1 31 Dec 11.9   -2.7 8 Jul 194.6
Woomera Aerodrome 25.5 -0.2 43.1 31 Dec 13.0 +0.3 0.7 8 Jul 242.8 184.3 high 132%
Far North (district 17)
Arkaroola     41.9 22 Jan 11.4 -0.2 -2.5 7 Jul 427.6 252.8 high 169%
Leigh Creek Airport 25.3 -0.9 42.4 22 Jan 12.8 0.0 -0.5 28 Jun 496.0 223.4 v high 222%
Marree Aero 27.3   44.2 27 Jan 13.8   -0.5 28 Jun 263.0
Moomba Airport 27.3   44.1 26 Jan 14.7   0.1 28 Jun 660.2
Oodnadatta Airport 27.8 -1.2 44.3 27 Jan 14.7 +0.1 -0.6 8 Jul 351.4 177.8 v high 198%
Western Agricultural (district 18)
Ceduna AMO 23.5 +0.1 45.6 30 Dec 11.0 +0.6 -0.4 15 Jun 322.4 296.1 average 109%
Cleve 21.7 -0.4 42.0 10 Jan 11.9 +0.6 4.0 15 Jun 599.2 399.4 v high 150%
Cleve Aerodrome 21.7   43.0 10 Jan 11.5   2.7 27 Jun 535.0 357.3 v high 150%
Cummins Aero 22.2   43.6 9 Jan 10.3   0.6 3 Jul 520.2
Elliston 21.4 0.0 40.1 9 Jan 12.0 +0.3 1.1 7 Jul 546.8 426.9 v high 128%
Kimba 22.6 -1.0 42.8 31 Dec 10.4 +0.1 0.5 15 Jun 471.1 345.7 high 136%
Kyancutta 24.6 -0.5 44.7 9 Jan 9.8 +0.6 -1.6 5 Aug 351.2 313.5 high 112%
North Shields (Port Lincoln AWS) 20.9   43.6 10 Jan 11.3   2.7 5 Jul 556.6
Nullarbor 22.8 -0.9 43.9 30 Dec 11.0 +0.4 0.0 5 Jul 402.0 248.8 v high 162%
Port Augusta Aero 25.5   45.5 31 Dec 12.0   -1.3 6 Aug 303.6
Streaky Bay 23.3 +0.3 42.8 30 Dec 12.7 +0.5 3.6 25 Jul 456.2 379.1 high 120%
Whyalla Aero 23.2 -0.5 44.5 31 Dec 11.6 +0.2 -0.8 15 Jun 342.0 261.9 high 131%
Wudinna Aero 24.7   44.9 9 Jan 10.1   -1.5 5 Aug 349.0
Upper North (district 19)
Hawker 24.2 -1.0 42.3 31 Dec 10.6 0.0 -2.6 6 Aug 364.8 308.3 high 118%
Yongala 22.0 +0.2 41.0 31 Dec 7.4 +0.1 -4.3 28 Jun 398.7 365.3 average 109%
Northeast (district 20)
Gluepot Reserve (Gluepot) 24.5   44.2 31 Dec 9.6   -3.6 9 Jul 420.6
Yunta Airstrip 23.4   42.5 31 Dec 9.8   -3.6 6 Aug 315.2
Lower North (district 21)
Clare High School 20.9   40.3 9 Jan 9.2   -2.5 6 Jul 651.0
Port Pirie Aerodrome 24.3   43.3 9 Jan 11.1   -0.6 6 Jul 384.3
Port Pirie Nyrstar Comparison 24.4 -0.1 43.0 9 Jan 13.2 +0.5 3.0 14 Jun 408.5 345.2 high 118%
Snowtown (Rayville Park) 23.5   43.4 31 Dec 8.9   -1.4 14 Jun 491.2
Yorke Peninsula (district 22A)
Edithburgh 20.3   42.4 11 Jan 12.0   2.0 27 Jun 439.8
Kadina AWS 23.4   44.0 9 Jan 9.7   -0.9 6 Jul 501.8
Maitland 21.7 +0.1 41.8 10 Jan 11.9 +0.7 3.3 27 Jun 587.4 501.7 high 117%
Minlaton Aero 22.0   42.8 11 Jan 11.0   1.9 29 Sep 494.6
Stenhouse Bay 20.0   41.4 11 Jan 12.8   4.1 15 Jun 477.4
Warooka 21.1 -0.1 41.6 10 Jan 11.7 +0.3 3.8 2 Jul 552.1 446.9 high 124%
Kangaroo Island (district 22B)
Cape Borda 18.8   37.7 9 Jan 11.6   5.4 2 Jul 575.7
Cape Willoughby 18.2 +0.2 37.4 11 Jan 13.2 +0.4 6.4 20 Aug 572.9 540.0 average 106%
Kingscote Aero 21.2   42.4 10 Jan 8.8   -0.6 15 May 432.6
Adelaide Plains (district 23A)
Adelaide (Kent Town) 22.5 +0.2 42.8 11 Jan 12.6 +0.4 2.2 14 Jun 592.6 549.1 average 108%
Adelaide Airport 21.7 +0.2 41.0 10 Jan 11.9 +0.5 1.8 15 Jun 490.2 442.6 high 111%
Edinburgh RAAF 22.6 0.0 44.5 11 Jan 11.5 +0.4 0.3 15 Jun 544.4 429.4 high 127%
Parafield Airport 23.1 +0.8 42.4 10 Jan 11.2 0.0 -0.3 6 Jul 478.4 453.8 average 105%
Roseworthy AWS 23.2   45.1 11 Jan 9.9   -0.2 5 Aug 414.2
County Light (district 23B)
Nuriootpa Viticultural 21.1   42.1 11 Jan 9.2   -2.1 6 Jul 580.8
Rosedale (Turretfield Research Centre) 22.6 +0.1 44.1 11 Jan 9.9 -0.1 -0.5 6 Jul 620.2 469.4 v high 132%
Mount Lofty Ranges (district 23C)
Hindmarsh Island AWS 20.4   40.8 11 Jan 11.8   2.0 15 Jun 513.4
Kuitpo Forest Reserve 18.9   38.5 10 Jan 10.3   1.7 15 Jun 824.6
Mount Barker 21.1 +1.1 41.0 11 Jan 8.4 +0.4 -1.2 15 Jun 844.1 764.1 high 110%
Mount Crawford (Mt Crawford AWS) 18.9   40.4 11 Jan 9.7   2.6 17 Aug 829.2
Mount Lofty 16.7   36.8 11 Jan 8.9   0.6 14 Jun 1122.0
Noarlunga 21.3   40.3 10 Jan 12.7   4.0 5 Jul 476.0
Parawa (Second Valley Forest AWS) 17.5   38.8 10 Jan 10.4   3.0 15 Jun 936.8
Victor Harbor (Encounter Bay) 20.3   42.0 10 Jan 10.3   0.0 14 May 613.9
Upper Murray Valley (district 24A)
Loxton Research Centre 23.7 -0.1 44.3 10 Jan 9.5 +0.6 -3.9 6 Jul 380.8 265.1 v high 144%
Renmark Aero 24.1   44.9 22 Jan 10.1   -4.5 6 Jul 408.8
Lower Murray Valley (district 24B)
Eudunda 21.1 +0.1 41.6 9 Jan 9.6 +0.4 0.0 15 Jun 560.0 447.3 high 125%
Meningie 21.0 +0.3 42.1 10 Jan 10.4 +0.2 0.3 15 Jun 695.2 468.0 v high 149%
Murray Bridge (Pallamana Aerodrome) 22.6   45.8 11 Jan 8.9   -3.2 5 Jul 429.4
Murray Bridge Comparison 23.3 +0.4 45.5 10 Jan 10.1 +0.3 -1.2 5 Jul 511.1 348.3 v high 147%
Strathalbyn Racecourse 21.3   43.1 11 Jan 10.2   0.4 9 Jul 494.8
Murray Mallee (district 25A)
Karoonda 22.8   44.5 11 Jan 9.2   -1.3 6 Jul 546.4 339.5 v high 161%
Upper Southeast (district 25B)
Keith 22.0 -0.2 44.0 10 Jan 9.6 +0.5 -1.2 27 Jun 577.8 462.8 high 125%
Keith (Munkora) 22.3   45.8 11 Jan 8.3   -1.8 25 Oct 580.2
Lameroo (Austin Plains) 22.6   44.5 11 Jan 9.0   -0.9 6 Jul 467.8
Lameroo Comparison 22.9 0.0 43.7 11 Jan 9.8 +1.1 -1.0 6 Jul 472.2 384.7 high 123%
Lower Southeast (district 26)
Cape Jaffa (The Limestone) 18.9   39.5 10 Jan 10.4   1.4 23 May 616.6
Coonawarra 20.4 +0.1 41.6 11 Jan 8.2 +0.2 -2.5 27 Jun 691.0 575.9 high 120%
Mount Gambier Aero 19.4 +0.5 42.5 11 Jan 8.5 +0.4 -0.8 15 Jun 815.6 710.8 high 115%
Naracoorte Aerodrome 21.1   43.0 11 Jan 8.1   -2.7 15 Jun 635.0
Padthaway South 21.1   42.9 10 Jan 8.6   -3.0 27 Jun 630.4
Robe Airfield 19.2   38.9 10 Jan 9.2   -1.8 15 Jun 675.0
Robe Comparison 18.3 +0.2 34.9 10 Jan 11.2 +0.3 1.9 15 Jun 684.4 632.6 high 108%

Notes

A Annual Climate Summary is prepared to list the main features of the weather in South Australia using the most timely and accurate information available on the date of publication; it will generally not be updated. Later information, including data that has had greater opportunity for quality control, will be presented in the Monthly Weather Review, usually published in the fourth week of the month.

This statement has been prepared based on information available at 9 am on Tuesday 4 January 2011. Some checks have been made on the data, but it is possible that results will change as new information becomes available.

Averages are long-term means based on observations from all available years of record, which vary widely from site to site. They are not shown for sites with less than 20 years of record, as they cannot then be calculated reliably.
The median is sometimes more representative than the mean of long-term average rain.

The Rank indicates how rainfall this time compares with the climate record for the site, based on the decile ranking (very low rainfall is in decile 1, low in decile 2 or 3, average in decile 4 to 7, high in decile 8 or 9 and very high is in decile 10).
The Fraction of average shows how much rain has fallen this time as a percentage of the long-term mean.

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