Tropical Climate Update

Tropical low 30U to the north of the NT's Top End while Severe TC Errol marks the 8th severe strength tropical cyclone for the season

During the past week, tropical low 30U tracked around the Gulf of Carpentaria before heading north-westwards into the Arafura Sea. It is currently located to the north of the NT's Top End and is forecast to gradually move to the north-west over the coming week. Latest forecasts indicate it has a low chance (less than 20%) of developing into a tropical cyclone.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Errol developed into a tropical cyclone (TC) on the evening of 15 April, off the Northern Kimberley Coast in Western Australia. It rapidly strengthened as it moved westwards, reaching Category 4 strength 24 hours later, before turning eastwards back towards the Northern Kimberley coast. Errol weakened as it approached the Australian coastline and made landfall south of Kuri Bay on 18 April as a tropical low. Errol was a small tropical cyclone and brought heavy rain to the Northern Kimberley coast and adjacent inland areas on 18 and 19 April. Kalumburu received 160.8 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours to 9 am on 19 April. Errol is the latest TC to form or move into the Australian region since TC Karim formed on 7 May 2022.

Errol marks the 11th TC for the 2024–25 season, the most since 2018–19. It is also the 8th severe tropical cyclone for the season; the most since 2005–06.

For the latest 7-day forecasts, go to our Tropical cyclone forecast page.

Rainfall for the week ending 21 April mostly confined to far northern Australia

For the week ending 21 April, rainfall was mostly confined to parts of far northern Australia. The most significant falls were mainly associated with Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol over the Kimberley region in WA, where weekly totals exceeded 50 mm. A tropical low embedded in a low pressure trough brought onshore airflow and heavy rainfall to far northern Queensland, with totals exceeding 50 mm across the far north, and higher isolated totals. Additionally, thunderstorms brought showers to the Top End in the Northern Territory on most days during the week.

The highest weekly total (at a Bureau gauge) was 351.0 mm at Horn Island in Queensland.

Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak or indiscernible

The past week has seen the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) persist at weak or indiscernible strength, as has been observed for much of April.

Most models indicate that it will strengthen and re-appear in the Western Pacific region during the last week of April. However, this strengthening is forecast to be weak and relatively short-lived. The remaining models maintain a weak or indiscernible MJO. When the MJO is in the Western Pacific region, it is typically associated with suppressed cloudiness to the north of Australia and parts of the eastern Indian Ocean. Rainfall for the fortnight starting 26 April is likely to be below average for parts of northern Australia, including much of the NT and western and northern parts of Queensland.