Tropical Climate Update

Dry conditions across much of northern Australia

During the fortnight ending 2 June, rainfall totals between 1 and 25 mm were recorded across the northern Kimberley and Top End, and scattered parts of north-eastern Queensland. Rainfall of up to 100 mm was recorded on the Tiwi Islands in the Northern Territory. Maximum and minimum temperatures were up to 6 °C below average across most of the tropical north during this fortnight, including little rainfall during the past week.

Long-range forecast

The long-range forecast for June to August indicates above average rainfall is likely for parts of the far tropical north, in particular eastern parts of the Top End and Cape York Peninsula. However, at this time of year, only small amounts of rainfall, often less than 50 mm in these areas, can be enough to exceed seasonal averages. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across much of northern Australia however the chances are weaker (closer to 50%) for maximum temperatures.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

As at 2 June, a strong burst of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is located in the Western Pacific. It is forecast to progress eastwards into the Western Hemisphere and Africa before weakening in mid to late June. At this time of year, the MJO has a stronger impact on the northern hemisphere, and is likely to be contributing to increased tropical activity in the Western Pacific.

The current position of the MJO also brings associated westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific, which can support further El Niño development.

Indian monsoon onset

The northern limit of the Asian Southwest Monsoon is currently located over the north of Sri Lanka, extending to central Myanmar, and is slightly behind the climatological position. On average, the Southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala, at the south-western tip of India, around the 1st of June. For updates on India's Southwest Monsoon onset, refer to the Monsoon Information Onset | India Meteorological Department.

Severe Tropical Storm Jangmi

As at 2 June, Severe Tropical Storm Jangmi (Typhoon no. 6) is located south-west of the main islands of Japan and is travelling north-east. This system has brought strong winds and heavy rainfall to the islands of Okinawa and Amami as it tracked north of the islands. Jangmi is expected to bring heavy and prolonged rainfall, and strong winds to the Pacific coast of Japan, likely causing travel disruptions and hazardous coastal conditions.