Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 12 October, there was little to no rainfall across much of northern Australia. Weekly rainfall totals of 15 to 100 mm were recorded across parts of central and eastern Queensland, on the border between Queensland and the Northern Territory, and north-western and southern parts of the Northern Territory as a result of a cloudband with embedded storms, some severe, across central and eastern Australia.

Maximum temperatures for the week were above average across northern Australia except in some coastal parts, with temperatures more than 4 °C above average for parts of the southern tropical regions of Queensland. Minimum temperatures for the week were above average across much of northern Australia, except for the Cape York Peninsula and far northern parts of the Top End and Kimberley regions, where temperatures were up to 3 °C below average.

Fortnightly forecast

For the fortnight, 17 to 30 October, there is an increased chance of above-average rainfall for the Gulf Country and eastern coastal parts of the Cape York Peninsula, western and central Northern Territory and much of Western Australia. Below-average rainfall is likely for parts of the Northern Territory's Top End and much of the Cape York Peninsula.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across most northern parts, and above average south of the Kimberley. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across much of northern Australia.

Tropical cyclone season

Tropical cyclone risk increases from November to April, the official tropical cyclone season in the Australian region. They can bring to northern Australia heavy rainfall, damaging winds, large waves and storm surge causing coastal erosion. At least one tropical cyclone has made landfall on the Australian coast each season since reliable track records began in 1970–71. Tropical lows can also cause substantial impacts, as can tropical cyclones that remain offshore.

Our tropical cyclone season page includes information about this season, past seasons and future seasons.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

The moderate Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the Western Hemisphere. As of 10 October, forecasts indicate it is most likely to move into the Indian Ocean and weaken over the coming week, largely influenced by the strong El Niño signal.

International Conditions

Hurricane Isaias

Hurricane Isaias is the first hurricane in the 2026 Atlantic season. Isaias formed in the south-western Gulf of Mexico on 6 October and strengthened into a hurricane and strengthened to US Category 3 intensity before weakening and making landfall near Destin, Florida. Evacuations were carried out across eastern Mexico and parts of the United States Gulf Coast, with damaging winds causing power outages and infrastructure damage.

Hurricane Rachael and Simon

Hurricanes Rachael and Simon, tenth and eleventh hurricanes of the 2026 Pacific season, affected parts of Mexico and Baja California during October. Rachael reached Category 3 intensity on 2 October before weakening and crossing the Baja California Peninsula below tropical cyclone strength on 11 October, bringing heavy rain and flash flooding that resulted in two fatalities and several missing persons. Simon subsequently intensified to Category 4 intensity on 10 October before weakening near Mexico’s Pacific coast, producing heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds. Evacuations and infrastructure shutdowns occurred ahead of both systems, while power outages and one fatality were reported in south-western Mexico. As of 13 October, Simon remains offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico and is slowly moving towards the coast.