Tropical Climate Update

July to September long-range forecast

The Bureau's seasonal forecast (issued on 13 June) shows that for July to September—the latter part of the northern dry season—most of the northern Australia is likely to receive below average rainfall, though rainfall is generally low at this time of year. There is a high chance of unusually warm maximum and minimum temperatures across northern Australia. Unusually high maximum temperature refers to the warmest 20% of observations for July to September days between 1981 and 2018.

In northern Australia, the June to November period is generally considered as the bushfire risk season. Typically, spring is the peak fire danger period for the Australian tropics. However, for the far north including the north-west coast of the Northern Territory and the northern Kimberley of Western Australia, the fire danger peak can occur in mid to late winter.

AFAC, the National Council for fire and emergency service's outlook for winter 2024 indicated no increased risk of fire for northern Australia.

To read the bushfire outlook for winter 2024, go to the AFAC website.

To read more about the fire seasons, go to our Fire Weather Knowledge Centre.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been weak since the start of June. The majority of models indicate the MJO will remain weak for the coming fortnight. At this time of year, the MJO has little impact on Australian rainfall.

Southwest monsoon arrives across India's South Peninsula and Bangladesh

The Indian monsoon has continued to move northward since the start of June. The northernmost extent of the monsoon now extends to about the middle of India, as well as including parts of the north-east including Bangladesh. This is close to the historical mean location of monsoon extent for the time of year. North India, including heavily populated regions around New Delhi, is yet to experience monsoonal rains.

To see the progress of the Southwest Indian Monsoon, please go to the India Meteorological Department website.

Product code: IDCKGEW000

About the Tropical Climate Update

The Tropical Climate Update is published weekly during the northern wet season (October to April). For the remainder of the year it is published fortnightly, on alternate weeks to the Climate Update.

The Climate Update provides a summary of the major climate influences affecting Australia, including tropical climate influences.

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