Tropical Climate Update

Record warm August in northern Australia, heat persisting in September

August was the warmest on record for the northern Australia (north of 26°S, the latitude of the Northern Territory and South Australian border), with the area-averaged mean temperature 2.94 °C above the 1961–1990 average. The mean maximum temperature and minimum temperatures for northern Australia were the second highest and highest for August, respectively.

From late August to early September, daytime temperatures climbed to and persisted in the high 30s to low 40s in northern Australia, resulting in many new August temperature records. The Kimberley in Western Australia was exceptionally hot, and multiple locations recorded maximum temperatures at 40 °C or higher during August. Fitzroy Crossing, to the east of Broome, recorded 4 consecutive days (ending 28 August) with maximum temperatures at least 40 °C; a first in Australia in August. Bradshaw - Angallari Valley, located near the south of the Top End, recorded the Northern Territory's first 40 °C in August and also exceeded the NT's highest August maximum temperature (previously 39.7 °C at Timber Creek on 20 August 2013). Six locations in western Queensland recorded the state's top six highest August temperatures on record in the last two days of the month, exceeding the previous highest temperature of 38.5 °C, set at Bedourie Police Station on 29 August 2009.

The heat persisted into the start of September, and maximum temperatures again reached the low 40s at multiple locations in the Kimberley and the north-west Territory. Unusually warm days and nights are likely to continue in the tropics for the next fortnight.

Peak bushfire season with enhanced bushfire risk

Spring is the peak bushfire season across the northern Australia. The spring seasonal bushfire outlook (issued on 4 September by AFAC) has highlighted an increased risk of fire for large parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Due to persistent hot temperatures and dry conditions, the Kimberley region in Western Australia and the Top End in the Northern Territory currently have several active wildfires. The first Fire Weather Warnings for the dry season have been issued for the western Top End during the second week of September associated with easterly trade wind surges.

To keep up to date with fire weather warnings, visit the national warnings summary page.

For more information on the seasonal bushfire outlook, see the spring outlook from AFAC.

Later than usual northern rainfall onset likely in the west and central regions, earlier in parts of the east

It has been rainless for most of northern Australia for the first 9 days of September, with only light falls of less than 20 mm recorded in the south of the Northern Territory and along the North Tropical Coast of Queensland. Some sites south of Cairns accumulated 50 mm of rainfall in the first week of September, slightly earlier than their normal northern rainfall onset date.

The northern rainfall onset for the 2024–25 season outlook (issued 29 August) indicates a later than usual onset is likely for most of the western parts of northern Australia, but earlier for much of the east. The progress of the northern rainfall onset is updated weekly beginning on the first Tuesday in October and continues until the last Tuesday in May.

Super Typhoon Yagi impacting South East Asia

The western North Pacific region has been very busy with tropical cyclone activity over the last fortnight. The region saw two typhoons, Shanshan and Yagi (Enteng), one named tropical depression (Hone) and a named tropical storm (Leepi) all form and impact the region.

Typhoon Shanshan made landfall over southwestern Japan on 29 August, and caused widespread damage, multiple deaths and at least 100 people were injured.

Super Typhoon Yagi (Enteng), the fifth typhoon of the season, was identified as tropical storm to the east of Philippines on 1 September and moved across the northern Philippines the next day. Yagi intensified to a typhoon in the South China Sea, then further upgraded to super typhoon, making landfall on the northern coast of Hainan Island, China on 6 September, and crossed the northern Vietnam coast the following day.

It was reported that Yagi, combined with the effects of the southwest monsoon, resulted in dozens of deaths across the Philippines, China and Vietnam. At least 3 million were left without electricity in parts of Vietnam, with over 100 000 hectares of agricultural land affected. On Hainan island, infrastructure losses have been estimated at $US 102 million.

Madden–Julian Oscillation to move to the Western Pacific

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently moved into the eastern Maritime Continent region and weakened. Forecasts issued on 9 September indicate the MJO will soon re-strengthen and move eastward across the Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific by mid-September.

An active MJO pulse over the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific at this time of year is expected to increase the chance of above-average rainfall over tropical regions to the north of Australia. The MJO may also provide favourable environment for tropical cyclone development in the western North Pacific region.