Climate Model Summary

Negative IOD moderate to strong through spring; ENSO remains cool-neutral

While waters in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than average, models suggest that sea surface temperatures will remain within the ENSO-neutral range. Model forecats indicate further cooling is possible during spring, with all but one model falling short of La Niña thresholds by the end of 2016. Despite this, a weak, La Niña-like pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and warm ocean temperatures around Australia, as is currently evident, can still have some La Niña-like impacts on Australian climate.

Most surveyed models are in agreement that the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain at moderate to strong levels until at least mid-spring, with a return to neutral conditions by December.

 

NINO3.4 outlook

The latest NINO3.4 outlooks (initialised in September) show temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain cool, but within the ENSO-neutral range for the remainder of 2016. The JMA model is now the only model indicating the potential for La Niña thresholds to be reached in the 2016-17 season, due to a stronger rate of cooling during the spring than other models. While five of the eight models indicate some further cooling may occur, most suggest this won't be enough to exceed typical La Niña thresholds.

The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for each month between September and the end of the year is between −0.4 °C and −0.6 °C.

The Bureau routinely monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditions and model outlooks. The most recent weekly NINO3.4 value to 25 September is −0.3 °C. NINO3.4 values that persist below −0.8 °C typically indicate a La Niña event has become established.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) outlook

The latest weekly IOD index value to 25 September is −0.9 °C. The negative IOD has re-intensified following a brief weakening during August. While this negative IOD event is likely to be the strongest such event in the observational record, model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate a return to neutral values by the end of spring - consistent with the typical IOD event lifecycle. During the spring months, a negative IOD typically enhances rainfall over eastern Australia. For more information on the establishment of the negative IOD in 2016, see the ENSO Wrap-Up.

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

POAMA, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates an eight-month forecast each fortnight. The most recent model run (generated 25 September) indicates NINO3.4 will fall short of exceeding La Niña thresholds (−0.8 °C) in September and return to near-zero values early in 2017. The forecast values, shown below in bold, are for POAMA's ensemble mean.

Product code: IDCKGL0000

Australian climate is influenced by temperature patterns in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. This page provides information on Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks for the coming six months based on a survey of international climate models.

Further details: ENSO Wrap-Up (ENSO and IOD); Climate Outlooks

Average of international model outlooks for NINO3.4

Average of international model outlooks for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)

Based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

The arrows on the dials indicate the combined average of monthly outlooks from a survey of international global climate models. Note that the individual model runs vary around the average.

More information:

NINO3.4 covers the central Pacific region.

Graphs

Nino 3.4 2 month outlook Models information
Graph details

The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

These graphs show the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.

Graphs

Latest POAMA IOD outlook Models information
Graph details

The graphs are based on the ensemble mean for the most recent model run.

Thse graphs show the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a negative IOD event. If the majority of models are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, then there is an increased risk of a positive IOD event.

POAMA Long-Range Outlook

Issued 25 September 2016

Updated fortnightly

These model forecasts of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are generated by the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical computer model of the climate system run at the Bureau of Meteorology. They are included in the monthly model summary of predictions from POAMA and other models operated by international organisations.

POAMA outlooks provide forecasts out to nine months ahead. The model ensemble distributions shown here provide a range of possible developments in sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO regions) and for the Indian Ocean.

NINO34 predictions for the next 9 months.

Skip to past graph to table of values

Outlook graph for selected indice

NINO34 probabilities

Click dates in the first row to see probability graphs
Outlook for month
NINO34 (°C) -0.38 -0.42 -0.44 -0.33 -0.23 -0.04 0.13
Model cool frequency (<−0.8°C) 0% 0% 3.03% 3.03% 6.06% 6.06% 6.06%
Model neutral frequency 100% 100% 96.97% 96.97% 93.93% 87.87% 72.72%
Model warm frequency (>+0.8°C) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6.06% 21.21%

More information:

Model details

The models used within our survey are listed below with links to their agency homepages, model output and technical information about the model.

Model data are provided for Bureau of Meteorology use by the agencies detailed in the Models section. Respective agency copyright applies to these data.