Tropical monitoring and outlooks
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 3 November, scattered thunderstorms developed across northern parts of the country, some severe. This activity extended south and became more widespread through inland parts of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory towards of the end of the week, as a series of low-pressure troughs moved across parts of the Australian interior. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms developed about the east coast of Australia, with giant hailstones, damaging winds and intense rainfall observed. Weekly rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm, locally higher, were recorded across much of the Northern Territory and Queensland, as well as in northern parts of Western Australia.

During the week, low intensity to severe heatwave conditions built up and persisted across northern parts of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across much of northern Australia. Daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies were up to 6°C above average across large inland parts of the tropics, with some localised areas up to 8°C above average. Some Queensland stations had their warmest October daily maximum temperatures on record.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 8 to 21 November, issued on 3 November, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for most of Queensland and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, with the highest chance about northeast Queensland, the eastern Top End and Gulf country. Forecasts for northern parts of Western Australia show a tendency towards  below average rainfall.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average about coastal areas of Northern Australia and inland through the Kimberley, but below average in areas further south. Nights have an increased chance (more than 70% chance) of being unusually warm through the Top End of the Northern Territory, Cape York Peninsula and the Queensland east coast. Unusually warm temperatures are considered to be those in the warmest 20% of records for this period between 1981 and 2018.

Madden-Jullian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently, as of 1 November, at moderate strength in the western Pacific Ocean. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to become weak or indiscernible over the coming fortnight.

International conditions

Hurricane Melissa

Hurricane Melissa was an extremely destructive hurricane the developed in the Caribbean Sea and affected Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas. As of 4 November, Hurricane Melissa was the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2025, reaching Category 5 intensity with maximum sustained winds of around 295 km/h, before making landfall near New Hope in eastern Jamaica on 28 October. Melissa was the strongest hurricane to directly hit Jamaica since records began in 1851.

As of 2 November, at least 67 deaths in the region have been reported. Hurricane Melissa caused extensive structural damage, power outages, major flooding and landslides in many of the Caribbean islands, especially near its landfall locations in western Jamaica and eastern Cuba. A long period of recovery and reconstruction will be required in many island communities impacted by Hurricane Melissa.

Heavy Rainfall and flooding in central Vietnam

Heavy rainfall affected central Vietnam on 22 and 28 October, causing significant flooding in the historic city of Hue, Da Nang and surrounding areas. During this period, the remnants of Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen combined with strong onshore easterly winds to produce continuous heavy rainfall in the coastal mountains of central Vietnam. A rainfall total of 1739 mm was recorded at Bach Ma Peak in the 24 hours between 7pm 26 October and 7pm 27 October, which was close to the global record for 24-hour rainfall totals (1825 mm at Foc Foc on La Reunion Island). At least 37 deaths have been reported and over 100,000 homes were flooded with major agricultural losses in the affected areas.

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Tino)

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi developed in the western north Pacific Ocean to the west of the Philippines on 1 November. Kalmaegi intensified to typhoon strength (Aust. Category 3 equivalent) on 3 November and passed over the southern Philippines on 4 November with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h and wind gusts up to 195 km/h. The typhoon was forecast to produce severe wind impacts, coastal storm surge, heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides in central provinces. Typhoon Kalmaegi is forecast to move away from the Philippines and approach the flood affected parts of central Vietnam on 7 November. The storm has also been named 'Tino' by the Philippines Meteorological Agency, PAGASA.

Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha

Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha (Aust. Category 2 equivalent) developed from a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal around 24 October 2025. It evolved into a deep depression by 26 October and was classified as a Severe Cyclonic Storm (category 2 cyclone) by 28 October. The cyclone made landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast of eastern India late on 28 October. It brought torrential rainfall (exceeding 200 mm in some areas) and flooding, especially in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Sustained winds of 90–110 km/h, with stronger gusts caused damage to infrastructure and vegetation.