For long-range forecasts of rainfall and temperature for Australia, please see our long-range forecast page. It provides the best guidance on likely conditions in the coming months, using the Bureau's climate model to take into account all influences from the oceans and atmosphere.
The Southern Hemisphere Outlooks page, in combination with the Southern Hemisphere Monitoring page, replace the Climate Driver Update. The long-range forecasts from the Bureau's climate model provide the best guidance on likely conditions in the coming months, which the Southern Hemisphere Outlooks page supports. If you have any feedback, please use our Feedback Form
The Southern Hemisphere Outlooks page contains information on the broader hemispheric climate state, including the forecasts related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. This information is useful because:
- it can be a source of longer-term predictability, which can provide intelligence that extends beyond the long-range forecast period.
- understanding the long-range forecast is improved through the assessment of its consistency within the broader climate system.
Southern hemisphere outlooks
Pacific, Indian and Southern ocean regions
Sea surface temperature maps
Sea surface temperature maps
Sea surface temperature maps are not available for forecasts before June 2021
Global sea surface temperature outlooks for the months and season ahead. Anomalies indicate the difference from normal.
SST outlooks for the next 3 months
Ocean and atmosphere indices
Sea surface temperature graphs
Australian climate is influenced by sea surface temperature and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Southern ocean regions. Specific regions are monitored, as they can indicate the presence, or potential development, of ENSO (El Niño/La Niña), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases and Southern Annular Modes. Pacific and Indian ocean indices are updated fortnightly, but the SAM index can change rapidly so it is updated daily. The first SAM button matches the Niño and IOD fortnightly issue date. During the following fortnight the 'Latest SAM' chart will diverge.
Niño34 predictions for the next 5 months
Niño34 probabilities
Product code: IDCK000073
About these outlook maps and graphs
About ENSO, IOD and SAM index graphs
The graphs show long-range forecast scenarios for sea surface temperatures (SSTs), or SAM atmospheric indices. The SST indices are averaged over particular regions of the Pacific and Indian oceans. The SSTs in these regions are related to different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can influence Australian rainfall and temperature patterns, along with other factors like global sea temperatures. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) graphs indicate the north-south shift of rain-bearing westerly winds and weather systems in the Southern Ocean compared to the usual position.
Graph details
The graphs show 99 possible scenarios (grey lines), that are produced by the Bureau's climate long-range forecast model, which represent the range of outcomes that may occur over the forecast period. For example, they may show the SSTs in the Niño3.4 region to be warming, cooling, or remaining mostly steady. At times the long-range forecast might suggest a shift towards (or away from) values typically associated with El Niño or La Niña events. Each of the 99 scenarios is based on anticipating how the current state of the atmosphere and ocean will likely develop over the long-range forecast period. Each scenario has slightly different starting conditions to help account for observational and model uncertainty, providing a range of likely possibilities. This technique allows us to see the range of what is possible, with a small spread in the range of scenarios meaning more confidence in the likely path, and a larger spread meaning less confidence.
The green line is the average of all these 99 scenarios, often known as the ensemble mean. The solid black line shows the observations (based on the Bureau's SST observation analysis for each region) for the previous months.
Update schedule
The SAM index can change rapidly so it is updated daily.
Pacific and Indian ocean indices are updated fortnightly, and
as a result, the value given for the 'current month' can vary depending on at what point in the month the forecast is being issued. Forecasts made on the 1st to the 11th of the month show a forecast value for the current month. For forecasts made after the 11th of the month, a month-to-date observation (shown by an open circle and dashed line), based on weekly observational data, will be used for the current month as a preliminary value until the final monthly data is available.
Long-range forecast model
Bureau's climate model, ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal) .
Before August 2018: Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.
Further information
- Southern hemisphere monitoring
- Tropical monitoring and outlooks
- Copernicus global outlooks
- WMO ENSO update
Unless otherwise noted, all maps, graphs and diagrams in this page are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence
