Climate outlook for November to January

Issued 30 October 2014

Climate outlook overview

A drier than normal November to January is more likely over the northern and eastern mainland.
For the month of November, a drier than normal month is more likely over the northern half of Australia, with the chances of a wetter or drier November roughly equal over most of the south.
The November to January temperature outlooks indicate a warmer than normal season for both daytime and night-time temperatures across most of Australia.
Climate influences include warmer than normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, near normal tropical Indian Ocean temperatures, and normal to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures off Australia's northern coasts.

A drier than normal November to January is more likely over the northern and eastern Kimberley region of WA, the NT, Queensland, northeast SA, NSW, and most of Victoria. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier season are roughly equal.
The November monthly outlook shows a drier than normal month is more likely over most of the northern half of WA, most of the NT, Queensland, northeast and central SA, and southeast NSW.
Climate influences include warmer than normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, near normal tropical Indian Ocean temperatures, and normal to below normal sea surface temperatures off our northern coasts.
Outlook accuracy for the season is moderate to high over western and northern parts of WA, parts of the Top End of the NT, and the eastern mainland States. Elsewhere, accuracy is low.

Warmer than normal November to January days are more likely for Australia, except for far western areas of WA. Strongest odds are across northern and eastern parts of the country.
Likewise, warmer than normal nights are more likely for most of the continent, except for far western parts of WA, and the northern Queensland coast.
Climate influences include warmer than normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and near normal tropical Indian Ocean temperatures.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia, except for a region just south of the Gulf of Carpentaria. Minimum temperature accuracy is generally moderate to high over most of Australia.

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral, but temperatures are consistently warmer than average. POAMA, the Bureau's climate outlook model, suggests sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will persist at neutral levels until well into 2015, although several other international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict further warming over the coming months. While shy of El Niño thresholds, the warmer than average temperatures across the Pacific, in combination with average to cooler than average waters to the north of Australia, are likely to have a drying effect on Australian rainfall patterns.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on the likelihood of El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly at the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.