Climate outlook for summer

Issued 27 November 2014

Climate outlook overview

A drier than normal summer is more likely over northern, eastern and central Australia.
For December, a drier than normal month is more likely over the northern half of Australia, with the chances of a wetter or drier December roughly equal over most of the south.
The summer temperature outlooks indicate a warmer than normal season for both days and nights across most of the Australian mainland, except parts of the west and southeast.
Climate influences include El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and average to cooler than average waters surrounding northern Australia.

A drier than normal summer is more likely over the Kimberley region of WA, the NT, Queensland, northern and eastern SA, NSW, and eastern Victoria.
Over southern Tasmania, a wetter than usual summer is slightly more likely. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier summer are roughly equal.
The December monthly outlook shows a drier than normal month is more likely over the northern half of Australia.
Climate influences include El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and average to cooler than average waters surrounding northern Australia.
Outlook accuracy for summer rainfall is moderate to high over most of WA, northern and eastern Queensland, and eastern NSW; low over southeast WA, the Top End of the NT, western SA, and western NSW; and very low elsewhere. Caution should be exercised in these areas of low skill.

Warmer than normal summer days are more likely for most of Australia, except for western WA, western Victoria, and Tasmania.
Likewise, warmer than normal summer nights are more likely for most of the continent, except for western WA, most of the Queensland coastline, and large parts of southeast Australia.
Climate influences include El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and average to cooler than average waters surrounding northern Australia.
Maximum temperature accuracy is generally moderate over western and eastern parts of mainland Australia, including the northern NT, while accuracy is low over central parts, SA and Tasmania. Minimum temperature accuracy is generally moderate over Australia, except for the central NT and northwest Queensland, where accuracy is low.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Niño development in recent weeks. POAMA, the Bureau's climate outlook model, suggests sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific will persist at values near, or just above, El Niño levels for at least the coming two to three months. These warmer than average sea surface temperatures, combined with average to cooler than average waters surrounding parts of northern Australia, mean that a warmer and drier summer is more likely for large parts of Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral. The IOD typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on the likelihood of El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.