Climate outlook for February to April

Issued 29 January 2015

Climate outlook overview

February to April is more likely to be drier than normal over most of WA and across large parts of the eastern mainland States (to the west of the divide).
For the month of February, most of Australia has a moderate to strong chance of a drier than normal month. This signal persists across much of the country in March.
February to April shows an increased chance of warmer than normal days over WA, parts of SA, and much of Queensland and NSW.
Night-time temperatures for the three months are more likely to be warmer than normal over most of WA, western SA, and areas of both Queensland and NSW. Cooler than normal nights are favoured in an area to the south of the Top End of the NT.
Climate influences include some residual warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a warm central Indian Ocean.

February to April is more likely to be drier than normal over most of WA, southern parts of the NT, a large area surrounding the Queensland-NSW-SA border, and an area covering western and central Victoria, extending into SA.
The monthly outlook for February shows a drier than normal month is more likely over most of mainland Australia, except the tropical north, and eastern Queensland. Chances of increased rainfall are less than 30% over most of WA, central Australia, and much of NSW and southwest Queensland. However, it should be noted that accuracy for February is generally low in a broad band stretching from the northwest of the country to the southeast. Caution should be exercised in areas of low accuracy.
Climate influences include some residual warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a warm central Indian Ocean.
Historical outlook accuracy for the season is patchy, though reaches moderate levels over large parts of the country, especially away from the interior. Accuracy is low for eastern parts of WA, the southern two-thirds of the NT, southeast Queensland, western NSW, and along the border of NSW and Victoria.

February to April days are more likely to be warmer than normal for most of WA, parts of SA, and much of Queensland and NSW. In the NT, southwest parts are also likely to be warmer than normal, with a small area just south of the Top End likely to be cooler than normal. See map for more detail.
Nights are also more likely to be warmer than normal for most of WA, western SA, patchy areas of Queensland, and the northeast half of NSW. Cooler than normal nights are more likely for an area to the south of the Top End of the NT.
Climate influences include some residual warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and a warm central Indian Ocean.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate over most of Australia, with the most notable exception in the central NT, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is generally moderate to low across Australia. Accuracy for minimum temperatures is generally higher in the western regions.

The tropical Pacific Ocean hovered near El Niño levels for the last month or two of 2014. However, since the last week of 2014, the tropical Pacific has eased away from El Niño thresholds and has become more clearly neutral. It is expected to remain neutral for at least the next three months. Despite the relaxation away from El Niño thresholds, there is residual warmth across much of the tropical Pacific, which may be drawing clouds and moisture away from the Australian region.
The waters across the central Indian Ocean are generally warmer than normal for this time of the year. The warm waters are not associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is not present from December to April. Typically warmer than normal waters in the central Indian Ocean can influence conditions in western Australia and parts of eastern Australia at this time of year.
The drier than normal signal seen across much of the region is likely due to a decrease in cloudiness over much of the country, with February having the highest chance of a drier than normal month.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on the likelihood of El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.