Climate outlook for March to May
Issued 26 February 2015
Climate outlook overview
- March to May is likely to be wetter than normal over central parts of WA and central Australia. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier season are roughly equal.
- For March, the Top End of the NT and areas near the Queensland-NSW border have an increased chance of above average rainfall.
- For March to May, warmer than normal days are likely over western and southern WA, much of northern Australia, and southeast Australia.
- Night-time temperatures for the season are likely to be warmer than normal over most of Australia, except parts of the Top End of the NT, and southeast Queensland.
- Climate influences include warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and to the south and west of Australia.
Increased chance of wetter than normal season for central parts of WA and central Australia
- March to May is likely to be wetter than normal over central parts of WA and central Australia. Small isolated areas of the Top End in the NT and northwest NSW also have an increased chance of a wetter season.
- For most of Australia, March to May has a roughly equal chance of being wetter or drier than normal (see map).
- The outlook for March shows a wetter than normal month is likely over the Top End and areas near the Queensland-NSW border (see map).
- Climate influences include residual warmth in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and warmer than normal waters in areas to the south and west of Australia.
- Historical outlook accuracy for March to May is moderate over eastern and northern Australia, and parts of western WA, with mostly low accuracy elsewhere.
Warmer autumn nights likely for most of Australia
- Daytime temperatures for March to May are likely to be warmer than normal along the western and southern coastline of WA, much of northern Australia, and all of southeast Australia.
- Nights are also likely to be warmer than normal for most of Australia, except for northern parts of the Top End of the NT, and southeast Queensland.
- Climate influences include residual warmth in the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and warmer than normal waters to the south and west of Australia.
- Historical maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over the northern half of Australia, NSW, Tasmania and the western WA coastline. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over the northern half of Australia and Tasmania, with low to very low accuracy elsewhere.
Climate influences
- The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However temperatures remain warmer than average, and are expected to remain so for at least the next three months.
- Waters to the south and west of Australia are warmer than normal in some areas.
- Large parts of Australia have a 50-50 chance of increased rainfall. This is largely due to a lack of significant climate influences at this point in time pushing the climate towards wetter or drier than usual weather.
- Persistent warmer waters in the far western Pacific Ocean are likely to encourage warmer northerly winds over parts of northern and southeast Australia, and hence increase the chance of warmer daytime temperatures over these areas. In contrast, the outlook for southeast Queensland sees more maritime easterly winds, and hence does not have an increased chance of warmer days. Likewise, much of northwest WA is likely to have more maritime northwesterly winds, which also explains the likely chance of a wetter season.
- Autumn (March to May) is a transition time. The northern wet season (October to April) winds down, and the southern wet season (April to November) begins. For the north, this means the highest chance for rain is earlier in the forecast period.
- Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on the likelihood of El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.
