Climate outlook for May to July

Issued 23 April 2015

Climate outlook overview

May to July is likely to be wetter than normal over most of Australia, except for the tropical north and Tasmania.
For May, large parts of the mainland are likely to be wetter than normal, while western Tasmania and isolated parts of the tropical north have an increased chance of drier conditions.
For May to July, warmer than normal days are likely over the tropical north, southeast and far southwest of Australia. In contrast, cooler than normal days are more likely in a large area from the northwest to central WA, extending across into western NSW.
Night-time temperatures for the season are likely to be warmer than normal over most of Australia, except in the northwest WA, where there is no strong push towards warmer or cooler nights.
The major climate influences for the season ahead are warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and in waters surrounding much of the Australian coastline. In the tropical Pacific, the Bureau's climate model suggests El Niño is likely to develop over the coming one to two months.

May to July is likely to be wetter than normal over most of Australia, excluding Tasmania, southern Victoria, the Top End and Cape York. Across the northern tropics, median rainfall is usually very low in May to July.
Likewise, May is likely to be wetter than normal over large parts of Australia, though western Tasmania and isolated parts of the tropical north have an increased chance of drier conditions (see map).
The major climate influences for the season ahead are warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and surrounding much of the Australian coastline. In the tropical Pacific, the Bureau's climate model suggests El Niño is likely to develop over the coming one to two months.
Historical outlook accuracy for May to July is moderate to high over eastern Australia, much of WA, and parts of the southern NT but low to very low in the Kimberley and Southern Interior in WA, much of the NT and SA.

Daytime temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than normal over the tropical north, southeast and far southwest of Australia.
Cooler than normal days are likely in the northwest to central WA extending into western NSW.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal for most of Australia. With the rainfall outlook suggesting wetter weather, this means more cloud is likely to be present, which aids in trapping heat at night.
The major climate influences for the season ahead are warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and that surrounding much of the Australian coastline. In the tropical Pacific, the Bureau's climate model suggests El Niño is likely to develop over the coming one to two months.
Historical maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high over Australia, except parts of the southeast mainland and the Cape York Peninsula , where skill is low to very low.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) surrounding Australia and that in the eastern half of the Indian Ocean are warmer than normal. These warmer waters are likely to be influencing the rainfall and minimum temperature outlooks, with both outlooks indicating a high chance of the season being wetter and warmer, respectively. With above-average rainfall favoured, more cloud is also likely to be present, which aids in trapping heat at night.
The Bureau's climate outlook model POAMA suggests El Niño conditions are likely to develop in the coming one to two months. For eastern Australia, the development of more El Niño–like conditions, and thus a bias towards drier weather, may be opposing the influence from the Indian Ocean.
It should be noted that tropical north officially enters its dry season at the start of May. For the May to July period, large parts of the northern regions typically have a median rainfall less than 10mm for the 3 months.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on the likelihood of El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.