Climate outlook for January to March

Issued 17 December 2015

Climate outlook overview

January to March rainfall – below average wet season rains likely in the tropical north.
Temperatures likely to be warmer than average in the east and north, cooler in parts of the southeast.
Climate being influenced by El Niño and a record-warm Indian Ocean (See Climate Influences section).

For most of Australia the chance of above or below average January rainfall is roughly equal, with below average rainfall more likely in patches of western WA, the far tropical north and the southeast.
The first three months of 2016 are likely to be drier than average across parts of northern Australia, and the southeast mainland. Conversely, southeast Queensland and Tasmania are likely to be wetter than average.
Current climate influences include a combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific and very warm Indian Ocean temperatures.
Historical outlook accuracy for January to March rainfall is moderate over most of Australia, except southern parts of WA, and parts of the interior where accuracy is low to very low.

January is climatologically the warmest month of the year for Australia. The outlook for January shows maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal across northern and eastern Australia, and WA. Conversely, days and nights are likely to be cooler during January in parts of the southeast.
January to March daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average across the southeast, including southeast SA, southwest NSW, western to central Victoria and most of Tasmania. Elsewhere, temperatures are likely to be warmer than average.
Current climate influences include a combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific and record-warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate over most of Australia except eastern SA where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is patchy, with moderate skill across eastern Australia, the Top End of the NT, and eastern WA.

The 2015 El Niño event is near its peak, with outlooks suggesting the event is likely to decline from early 2016. El Niño's influence on Australian rainfall is variable at this time of year, with both wetter and drier summers observed in past events depending on how quickly the event breaks down. Historically summer sees lower rainfall across northern Queensland during El Niño. Conversely, inland WA often sees above-average rainfall at this time of year.
The combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a strong El Niño contributed to a drier than average September and October. Despite rain during November, Australia is not well buffered with moisture leading into the warmer months. The warm waters across the Indian Ocean may ease the outlook back towards an above-average rainfall outlook.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.