Climate outlook for February to April

Issued 28 January 2016

Climate outlook overview

Above average February to April rainfall favoured in central and southern Australia, but drier than average in the far north.
Temperatures more likely to be cooler than average in central regions but warmer in the far north and far south.
Climate influences include a record-warm Indian Ocean basin, a weakening El Niño and warm sea surface temperatures around much of the Australian coastline, particularly near Tasmania (see the Climate Influences section).

The February outlook indicates rainfall is more likely to be above average in parts of eastern Australia, but below average in WA's Pilbara and northwest coastline.
For February to April, rainfall is more likely to be above average across much of the southern half of Australia with the strongest probabilities in the southeast. The tropical north however is favoured to have a drier than average period.
The current outlook reflects a combination of influences - a strong El Niño now in decline, record-warm Indian Ocean temperatures and warm localised sea surface temperatures, particularly around Tasmania.
Historical outlook accuracy for February to April rainfall is somewhat patchy with moderate skill over most of the country, but low skill in inland parts of the NT extending along the WA border, as well as in small patches in Queensland, western NSW, and along the border of NSW and Victoria.
Note: while the above average February to April rainfall forecast for the southeast of the country is likely to be welcome particularly in areas suffering from mid- to long-term rainfall deficiencies, recovery is likely to require a significant period of above average rainfall.

February is favoured to be cooler than average across much of NSW and southern Queensland for both daytime and overnight temperatures, while in the far north, west and south of the country, temperatures are more likely to be above average.
For the three-month period, daytime temperatures are favoured to be below average over inland areas, but higher than average in the far south and far north of the country. Nights are favoured to be warmer than average in the north, as well as in western and southern coastal regions, while inland areas show no trend towards warmer or cooler than average nights.
The current outlook reflects a combination of a strong El Niño now in decline, record-warm Indian Ocean temperatures and warm localised sea surface temperatures, particularly around Tasmania.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is very-low to low in parts of the east and the NT, but moderate for much of WA, southern SA and Tasmania.

Although the El Niño event is now abating, most indicators remain well above El Niño thresholds. Models forecast a return to a neutral ENSO pattern in late autumn to early winter.
In addition, warming during December and January across much of the Indian Ocean basin, as well as over a number of local waters (Tasman Sea, Bass Strait), is also likely to be influencing Australian climate patterns. The Indian Ocean basin remains at record-warm temperatures while recent weekly analyses of sea surface temperatures near Tasmania show areas exceeding three degrees above average. These localised warm waters are likely to drive warmer than average temperatures in nearby regions, as well as acting as a source of moisture to enhance rainfall systems.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.