Climate outlook for April to June

Issued 24 March 2016

Climate outlook overview

April to June rainfall outlook: above average in parts of southern Australia, below average in the far north.
April rainfall outlook: below average in northern Australia and parts of the southeast mainland.
Daytime temperature outlook: warmer than average nation-wide, except in parts of the southern interior and western WA
Overnight temperature outlook: warmer than average nation-wide.
Climate influences include a very warm Indian Ocean, a weakening El Niño and warm sea surface temperatures surrounding much of Australia (see the Climate Influences section).

April is likely to be drier than average across northern Australia, suggesting a dry end to the northern wet season. Central to eastern Victoria and central Queensland are also likely to have a drier than average April.
April to June rainfall is more likely to be above average across the Gascoyne region in WA, throughout SA, extending into NSW and the far western corners of Queensland and Victoria. The far northern parts of Australia are more likely to have a drier than average three months.
The current outlook reflects a combination of a weakening El Niño, very warm Indian Ocean temperatures and warm sea surface temperatures around much of the Australian coast.
Historical outlook accuracy for April to June is generally moderate to high over most of Australia, but low in Tasmania and small patches across the south. See map for more detail.

April daytime and night-time temperatures are very likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia.
Warmer than normal days are likely for much of Australia for the April to June period, except for parts of the southern interior and western WA.
Nights are strongly favoured to be warmer than average across the country, with a greater than 80% (or eight in ten) chance of warmer nights for most of Australia for the April to June period.
The current outlook reflects a combination of very warm Indian Ocean temperatures, a weakening El Niño, and warm sea surface temperatures surrounding much of Australia.
Historical maximum temperature accuracy for April to June is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high for most of the country, except parts of southwestern WA, where accuracy is moderate to low.

El Niño is steadily declining, with models forecasting a return to a neutral pattern in late autumn to early winter. During the breakdown period of the El Niño cycle, warmer days tend to persist over northern and eastern Australia, with warmer nights across much of Australia.
In addition to El Niño, there are widespread warmer than average sea surface temperatures across much of the Indian Ocean, as well as waters surrounding Australia, while waters off the WA coastline are closer to average. The warmer waters are likely to reinforce above average temperatures in coastal regions.
Soil moisture has been relatively low across northern and eastern parts of Australia, particularly in the drought-affected regions. This means there is less evaporative cooling, contributing towards warmer conditions inland.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.