Climate outlook for November to January

Issued 27 October 2016

Climate outlook overview

November to January rainfall is likely to be above average across large parts of WA. Conversely, rainfall may be below average in some areas of southeast Queensland.
Warmer days and nights are likely across parts of eastern Australia and far western WA, with cooler days and nights likely for other areas of WA.
Climate influences include a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, an ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific, and warm seas around northern Australia (see the Climate Influences section).

November is likely to be drier across southern mainland Australia, but wetter across northwest Australia.
November to January rainfall is likely to be above average across most of WA, except the southwest. A small area of southeast Queensland is slightly more likely to be drier than average. For other areas, the chances of a wetter or drier three months are roughly equal.
The current outlook reflects a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole and an ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific. For November, a strong climate influence is likely to be a shift north in the position of westerly winds (the "Southern Annular Mode") that affect southern Australia.
Historical outlook accuracy for November to January is moderate to high over eastern and western parts of Australia, and parts of the Top End of the NT. Across central Australia, extending from eastern WA to western Queensland and much of SA, accuracy is low.

November to January days are likely to be warmer than average for parts of eastern Australia and far western WA. Days are likely to be cooler than average in eastern WA.
Night-time temperatures are also more likely to be warmer across eastern Australia and far western WA, with nights more likely to be cooler than average for southern WA.
The current outlook reflects a weakening negative Indian Ocean Dipole, an ENSO-neutral tropical Pacific, and warm ocean temperatures around Australia's northern and eastern coastlines.
Maximum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over most of Australia, except to the south of the Gulf of Carpentaria, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high over much of the country.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, however, warmer than average sea surface temperatures to Australia's north (often typical of a La Niña pattern) may be contributing to some La Niña-like wetter conditions in parts of northern Australia.
The current negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is weakening and is expected to end by the end of November. This indicator has contributed towards above average rainfall across much of Australia since May, and cooler daytime temperatures. The decline in the IOD is the main reason why rainfall odds are reverting to closer to 50:50 compared to recent wet outlooks.
In the shorter term, a northerly shift in the average position of westerly winds and high pressure systems (also known as the "Southern Annular Mode, or SAM") is forecast for November. When this shift (a negative SAM phase) occurs in spring, this typically means southern mainland Australia becomes drier than usual.
In addition to the shorter-term natural drivers, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.