Climate outlook for January to March

Issued 21 December 2017

Climate outlook overview

The January to March rainfall outlook, issued 21 December 2017, shows parts of eastern and Western Australia are likely to have a wetter than average three months.
January is likely to be wetter than average for WA, eastern NSW and southeast Queensland.
January to March daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for parts of eastern and western Australia, but warmer than average for the far southwest and southeast.
La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This event is forecast to be short lived and weaker than the previous La Niña in 2010-12. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

A wetter than average January to March is likely for most of WA, southwest SA, northern Tasmania and the eastern half of Victoria, NSW and southern Queensland.
January is likely to be wetter than average for most of WA, eastern NSW and southeast Queensland.
La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This event is forecast to be short lived and weak.
Historical outlook accuracy for January to March rainfall is moderate over most of Australia except southern parts of WA and much of the interior where accuracy is low to very low. See map for more detail.

January to March daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for large parts of eastern and western Australia, but warmer than average for the southeast and southwest. There is a greater than 80% chance of warmer January to March days and nights in Tasmania and southern Victoria.
January is likely to be warmer than average for southeast and southwest Australia, and the Top End of the NT.
Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of Australia, except eastern SA, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is patchy, with moderate accuracy across eastern Australia, the Top End of the NT and northern WA.

La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific. Most international models show a short and weak to moderate La Niña throughout summer, decaying in early autumn.
La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern NSW and Queensland. However, unlike El Niño, the strength of La Niña events are more closely related to the strength of its effect; for example, weaker La Niña events tend to only slightly increase Australian summer rainfall.
Waters to the northwest of Australia have warmed recently, and are likely contributing towards the above average rainfall forecast in Western Australia.
In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.