Climate outlook for February to April

Issued 25 January 2018

Climate outlook overview

The February to April rainfall outlook, issued 25 January 2018, shows most of WA is likely to have a wetter than average three months. Smaller patches in the tropical north and far southeast are also likely to be wetter than average.
February is likely to be wetter than average for western and southern Australia.
February to April daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for parts of the western and southeastern mainland Australia, but warmer than average for Tasmania and northeast Australia.
Weak La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Models suggest it will dissipate during autumn. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

A wetter than average February to April is likely for most of WA except the southwest. Smaller patches in the tropical north, and the far southeast of the country are also likely to have a wetter three months.
February is likely to be wetter than average for western and southern Australia, extending into southern Queensland. Chances are highest for western WA, which has a greater than 75% chance of being wetter than average.
Weak La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Models suggest this event will end by mid-autumn.
Historical outlook accuracy for February to April rainfall is moderate across much of the eastern half of Australia, western WA, and the Top End of the NT. Elsewhere, accuracy is generally low to very low. See map for more detail.

February to April daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for parts of the western and southeastern mainland Australia, but warmer than average for northeast Australia, Tasmania and southern Victoria.
Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of Australia, except the southern NT, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is patchy, with moderate accuracy broadly across eastern Australia, WA, and Tasmania.

Weak La Niña conditions continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Models suggest the La Niña will end by mid-autumn. At this time of year, La Niña events typically start to break down, meaning there is less influence on rainfall.
Waters are warm to the northwest of Australia, encouraging lower pressure and therefore an increased likelihood of above average rainfall for much of WA.
In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.