Climate outlook for autumn (March to May)

Issued 28 February 2018

Climate outlook overview

The autumn (March to May) rainfall outlook, issued 28 February 2018, shows large parts of central and southeastern Australia are likely to have a drier than average season.
March to May daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except eastern NSW and southeastern Queensland, which have roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average season.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the northeast, central and southern parts of Australia. The northwest and parts of the east have roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average season.
A weak and short-lived La Niña continues to break down, with a return to neutral conditions expected by mid-autumn. In the past, the break down of weak La Niña events has seen drier conditions during autumn. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

A drier than average March to May is likely for large parts of central Australia, including northern and eastern WA, the southern and central NT, SA and western parts of the eastern mainland States. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier autumn are roughly equal.
La Niña continues its decline, with a return to neutral conditions expected in autumn. In the past, the break down of weak La Niña events has seen drier conditions during autumn.
Historical outlook accuracy for autumn rainfall is moderate to high over eastern and northern Australia as well as parts of western WA, with mostly low accuracy elsewhere. See map for more detail.

March to May daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, with the exception of eastern NSW and southeastern Queensland, which have roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months.
Overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the northeast, central and southern parts of Australia. The northwest and parts of the east have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average nights.
Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia, except the southern mainland, where accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for the northern half of Australia and Tasmania, and low to very over the southern half of the mainland.

La Niña continues to break down. A return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions is expected during early to mid-autumn. In the past, the break down of weak La Niña events has seen drier conditions across parts of central and eastern Australia during autumn. This is a similar pattern to that indicated by the rainfall outlook, with a drier than average autumn likely for much of central and southeast Australia.
In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.