Climate outlook for April to June

Issued 15 March 2018

Climate outlook overview

The April to June outlook, issued 15 March 2018, shows eastern parts of Victoria and Tasmania, and southeast NSW are likely to be wetter than average. Most of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
April is slightly more likely to be wetter than average near the east coast, and patchy parts of WA.
Days are likely to be warmer than average for parts of southeast Australia, but cooler than average for Cape York Peninsula. Overall, the rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months, but April is likely to be cooler for most of the mainland.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia but cooler than average in the north.
The La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has ended, and ENSO neutral conditions now prevail. With neutral conditions also in the Indian Ocean, there is no strong push towards broadscale wetter or drier conditions for much of the country. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

A wetter than average April to June is likely for eastern parts of Victoria and Tasmania, and southeast NSW. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier season are roughly equal.
There is a slightly increased chance that April will be wetter than average near the east coast, and patchy parts of WA.
Historical outlook accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate over most of Australia, but patchy near the NSW-Queensland border, and across southern WA. See map for more detail.

April to June days are likely to be warmer than average for southern Victoria and Tasmania, and cooler than average for Cape York Peninsula. Overall, most of the rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months, but April is likely to be cooler for most of the mainland.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia, but cooler than average in the north.
Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia, except southeast WA, where accuracy is low to very low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for most of Australia, but low to very over the west coast of WA, and the far southeast of SA.

The La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has ended, and neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail. A neutral ENSO state is forecast to persist through the forecast period.
The Indian Ocean is also in a neutral state.
With mostly neutral climate drivers, there is no strong shift in the outlook towards broadscale wetter or drier conditions across most of Australia. Neutral conditions in the Indian and Pacific oceans does not necessarily mean average rainfall and temperature for Australia. Rather, it indicates a reduced chance of prolonged widespread very wet/dry or very hot/cold conditions. Other climate drivers may have greater influence over the coming months.
Above average rainfall and cooler temperatures in northern Queensland and the NT during April suggest an increase in monsoonal activity during the month.
In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.