Climate outlook for April to June
Issued 29 March 2018
Climate outlook overview
- The April to June outlook, issued 29 March 2018, shows parts of the tropical north, eastern Victoria, Tasmania, and southeast NSW are likely to be wetter than average. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months.
- April is likely to be wetter than average over Cape York Peninsula, but drier in parts of WA and the central NT.
- Days are likely to be warmer than average for parts of southeast Australia and the northern Kimberley in WA, but cooler than average for much of the tropical north. The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months.
- Nights are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia but cooler than average in Queensland and the Top End of the NT.
- The La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has ended, and ENSO neutral conditions now prevail. The Indian Ocean is also likely to have neutral conditions for most of the next three months, so there is no strong push towards broadscale wetter or drier conditions for much of the country. See the Climate Influences section for more information.
Wetter three months likely in tropical north and far southeast Australia
- A wetter than average April to June is likely for parts of the tropical north, eastern Victoria, Tasmania, and southeast NSW. Elsewhere, the chances of a wetter or drier season are roughly equal.
- Historical outlook accuracy for April to June rainfall is moderate to high over most of Australia, but low in Tasmania and small patches across the south. See map for more detail.
Warmer than average in parts of the southeast, cooler in the north
- April to June days are likely to be warmer than average for the northern Kimberley in WA, southern Victoria and Tasmania, but cooler than average for the Top End of the NT and Cape York Peninsula. The rest of the country has roughly equal chances of a warmer or cooler than average three months.
- Nights are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia, but cooler than average in most of Queensland and the Top End of the NT.
- Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia for April to June. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high for most of Australia, except parts of southwestern WA, where accuracy is moderate to low.
Climate influences
- The La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has ended, and neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail. A neutral ENSO state is expected to persist through the forecast period.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole is also in a neutral state, with forecasts suggesting it will remain neutral until at least the end of May. For June, the Bureau's climate model suggests an increased likelihood of a negative IOD event. A negative IOD typically means a wetter than average winter-spring for southern Australia. However, forecast accuracy for the IOD is low during the autumn compared to other times of the year, and hence this outlook should be viewed with some caution.
- With mostly neutral climate drivers, there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions across most of Australia. This does not indicate average rainfall and temperature for Australia. Rather, it means a reduced chance of prolonged or widespread very wet, dry, hot, or cold conditions. Other climate drivers may also have greater influence over the coming months.
- Above average sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea may be influencing the enhanced rainfall favoured in the southeast of the country.
- Above average rainfall and cooler temperatures in northern Queensland and the NT during April suggest an increase in monsoonal activity during the month.
- In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
- Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.
