Climate outlook for June to August

Issued 31 May 2018

Climate outlook overview

  • For the winter outlook, issued 31 May 2018, the southeast mainland of Australia is likely to be drier than average.
  • June has high chances of being drier than average in the southeast mainland, and is also likely to be drier across much of central and western Australia, except the southwest.
  • Winter days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except parts of the far north.
  • Broadscale climate drivers, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are forecast to remain neutral during winter and thus have less influence on Australia's climate.
  • Below average pressure over the Tasman Sea is likely to weaken the westerlies that bring rain to southern Australia. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

Drier winter likely for southeast quarter of mainland Australia

  • Following a dry autumn for southern Australia, winter is also likely to be drier than average in the southeast mainland of Australia, extending into southern Queensland and across SA. WA's Gascoyne region is also likely to be drier than average. Conversely, eastern Tasmania is slightly more likely to be wetter than average.
  • June is also likely to be drier than average in the southeast mainland, extending across much of central and western parts of Australia. Chances of a drier June are greater than 80% for northern Victoria, southern and western NSW, and most of SA.
  • Historical outlook accuracy for winter is moderate over eastern parts of Queensland and NSW, the southern half of WA, western Tasmania and parts of the NT. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low. See map for more detail.

Warmer than average winter likely for most of Australia

  • Winter days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except parts of the far north. Warm winter days are very likely in the southeast, with chances greater than 80% over NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and eastern SA.
  • Historical accuracy for winter maximum temperatures is moderate to high for northern and eastern Australia, while accuracy is low to very low in the southern two-thirds of WA, and western and southern SA. Minimum temperature accuracy during winter is generally moderate in most regions.

Climate influences

  • Broadscale climate drivers, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, are forecast to remain neutral during winter, meaning they are expected to have less influence on Australia's climate.
  • When broadscale drivers are neutral, the climate is often influenced by more local effects, such as the ocean temperatures immediately surrounding the continent. Below average pressure over the Tasman Sea, associated with warmer than average ocean temperatures, are likely to weaken the westerlies that bring rain systems to southeast Australia.
  • In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
  • Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments. See our ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary for information and forecast of El Niño and La Niña and the IOD.