Climate outlook for August to October

Issued 12 July 2018

Climate outlook overview

The first look August to October outlook, issued 12 July 2018, shows the southeast mainland and parts of northern Australia are likely to be drier than average.
The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall.
Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average during August to October for most of Australia.
The Bureau's climate model indicates the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are likely to remain neutral during the outlook period and thus have less influence on Australia's climate. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

August to October is likely to be drier than average in Victoria, NSW, southeast SA and northeast Queensland.
The August outlook shows most of Victoria, NSW and Queensland are likely to be drier than average.
Historical outlook accuracy for August to October is moderate over most of the country, except for interior WA, where accuracy is low to very low.

August to October days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for most of the country, with high chances (greater than 80%) in eastern Victoria and NSW, and southern Tasmania.
Days and nights in August are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, with high chances (greater than 80%) of warmer days in the southeast.
Historical accuracy for August–October maximum temperatures is moderate for eastern and northern parts of Australia, as well as southern WA. Elsewhere, accuracy is low to very low. Historical accuracy for minimum temperatures is moderate for the northern half of Australia, SA, and Tasmania, but low to very low elsewhere.

The Bureau's climate model indicates that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are likely to remain neutral for August–October and thus have less influence on Australia's climate. While the Bureau's model favours neutral ENSO, five of eight international models show a spring El Niño is likely.
The Bureau's model suggests that the westerly winds (and associated rain systems) that typically flow along the south of Australia at this time of year are likely to be weaker than average, particularly in the southeast of the country. This is likely to be influencing the drier outlook for August to October.
Current cooler than average waters to the northwest of Australia may also be influencing the flow of moisture into southeast Australia.
In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are also being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments. See our ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary for the latest climate information and forecasts of El Niño, and La Niña and the IOD.