Tasmania in October 2019: warm days, cool nights, rain well below average

Tasmania had many warm days during October, but nights were mostly colder than average for the time of year. There was much less rain than is typical for October.

Little rain for most of the month

  • Rainfall was very much below the October average in most parts of Tasmania, with only a patch of the lower East Coast having close to average rain for the month
  • Tasmania's total rainfall for the month was less than half the October average, making it the sixth-driest October but not as dry as October last year
  • The passage of a complex low brought localised moderate falls to the lower East Coast and southern Midlands on the 15th and 16th
  • A few sites in the Huon Valley had their lowest total October rainfall on record
  • Rainfall for the year so far has been below average in most of Tasmania and well below average in the east, but close to average in the western highlands

Warm days and cold nights

  • Days were warmer than average but nights were mostly cooler than average
  • The 3rd, 24th, 29th and 31st were especially warm, with temperatures in some areas pushing into the high 20s or even the low 30s
  • Lake St Clair and Scotts Peak Dam had their highest October temperature on record on the 24th, and were followed by record October heat at Butlers Gorge, Ouse and Scotts Peak Dam again on the 31st
  • Warm weather, strong winds and ongoing dry weather created dangerous fire weather conditions several times during the month, notably from the 29th onward
  • There was a period of generally cooler days from around the 4th to the 19th
  • Mean maximum temperatures were well above average for most of Tasmania
  • The State's mean maximum temperature was 1.59 °C above average, the sixth-warmest October on record and just a little cooler than October last year
  • Cool to cold nights were common right through the month, with only a few mild mornings
  • Liawenee's temperature dropped to -7.8 °C on the morning of the 5th, the lowest October temperature reported in Tasmania since 2006 (when Liawenee dipped to -7.9 °C on the 16th)
  • Mean minimum temperatures for October were below average for most of Tasmania, especially inland
  • A handful of sites had their lowest October mean daily minimum temperature on record
  • The State's mean minimum temperature was 0.68 °C below average, the coolest October since 2003
  • Tasmania's overall mean temperature was 0.46 °C above average, much cooler than October last year but warmer than October 2016
  • Temperatures for the year so far have been above average, with maximum temperatures especially warm and particularly so in the east

A dry month for Hobart with many warm days

  • The temperature at Hobart (Ellerslie Road) reached 25 °C on six days during the month, breaking the 2015 record of five such warm days; there is typically one or two days each October that reach 25 °C
  • The warmest day was 28.2 °C on the 3rd
  • The mean daily maximum temperature was 18.8 °C, which is 1.8 °C above the long-term average
  • Hobart's coolest day was on the 15th when the temperature reached 12.4 °C; typically Hobart fails to reach 12 °C once or twice each October
  • The mean daily minimum temperature for Hobart (Ellerslie Road) was 7.7 °C, which is 0.1 °C below the long-term average
  • The coldest morning was 2.9 °C on the 5th, the first October temperature below 3 °C at Hobart since 2011
  • Total rainfall for Hobart (Ellerslie Road) was 17.6 mm, which is 29% of the long-term average
  • Hobart has had its highest mean maximum temperature for the year so far, with the mean minimum temperature also above average and rainfall less than two-thirds of average

 

Further information

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Extremes in October 2019
Hottest day 32.0 °C at Ouse Fire Station on the 31st
Warmest days on average 19.9 °C at Campania (Kincora)
Coolest days on average 9.9 °C at kunanyi (Mount Wellington Pinnacle)
Coldest day 1.4 °C at kunanyi (Mount Wellington Pinnacle) on the 8th
Coldest night -7.8 °C at Liawenee on the 5th
Coolest nights on average 0.0 °C at Liawenee
Warmest nights on average 10.3 °C at Swan Island
Warmest night 16.5 °C at Maatsuyker Island Lighthouse on the 25th
Warmest on average overall 13.6 °C at larapuna (Eddystone Point)
Coolest on average overall 5.1 °C at kunanyi (Mount Wellington Pinnacle)
Wettest overall 250.6 mm at Mount Read*
Driest overall9.0 mm at Cressy Research Station
Wettest day 40.0 mm at kunanyi (Mount Wellington Pinnacle) on the 11th
Strongest wind gust 131 km/h at Maatsuyker Island Lighthouse on the 18th

* Note the true value at Mount Read was probably higher


Maps
ObservedAnomalyDecile rank
Total
rainfall
Map of Rainfall totals Map of Percentage of normal rainfall Map of Rainfall deciles
Mean
daily
maximum
temperatures
Map of Mean maximum temperature Map of Anomaly in mean maximum temperature Map of Decile rank of mean maximum temperature
Mean
daily
minimum
temperatures
Map of Mean minimum temperature Map of Anomaly in mean minimum temperature Map of Decile rank of mean minimum temperature

Click on a map to show it full size in a pop-up window


Record lowest October total rainfall
New record
(mm)
Old
record
Years of
record
Average for
October
Margate (Sunnyside) 19.8 20.2 in 2015 52 67.9
Lucaston (Bakers Creek Road) 20.6 23.8 in 2015 40 80.7
Judbury (Huon River) 14.2 20.6 in 2015 22 61.4

Lowest October total rainfall for at least 20 years
Observed
(mm)
Most recent
lower
Average for
October
Fort Direction 13.4 5.2 in 1982* 46.5

* note: there are gaps in the historical record at this site, so it is possible a lower value has gone unreported




Record highest October temperature
New record
(°C)
Old
record
Years of
record
Average for
October
Butlers Gorge 26.8 on the 31st 26.4 on the 18th in 2017 58 12.6
Lake St Clair National Park 26.1 on the 24th 25.7 on the 16th in 1994 30 12.9
Ouse Fire Station 32.0 on the 31st 30.8 on the 12th in 2006 22 18.0
Scotts Peak Dam 30.6 on the 31st* 28.9 on the 17th in 2017 22 14.8
*Note Scotts Peak Dam also broke its previous October record on the 24th, with 30.0 °C


Record lowest October mean daily minimum temperature
New record
(°C)
Old
record
Years of
record
Average for
October
Lake Leake (Elizabeth River) 1.8 2.0 in 2003 29 3.6
Cressy Research Station 3.2 = 3.2 in 2003 20 5.2

Lowest October mean daily minimum temperature for at least 20 years
Observed
(°C)
Most recent
lower
Average for
October
Butlers Gorge 1.2 1.0 in 1946* 2.4
Flinders Island Airport 7.5 =7.5 in 1998 8.6

* note: there are gaps in the historical record at this site, so it is possible a lower value has gone unreported




Summary statistics for October 2019
Maximum temperatures
(°C)
Minimum temperatures
(°C)
Rainfall
(millimetres)
Mean for
October
2019
Diff
from
average
Highest for
October
2019
Mean for
October
2019
Diff
from
average
Lowest for
October
2019
Total for
October
2019
Average
for
October
Rank of
October
2019
Fraction of
October
average
Northern (district 91)
Cape Grim 14.2   21.7 24th 8.6   4.3 2nd 42.2
Cape Grim BAPS (Comparison) 14.7 +0.2 21.6 24th 8.6 -0.7 5.1 5th 43.6 59.9 average 73%
Cressy Research Station 18.7 +1.4 26.1 24th 3.2 -2.0 -1.2 9th 9.0 47.4 low 19%
Devonport Airport 16.5 +0.6 22.3 3rd 6.8 -0.6 2.4 9th 11.0 61.1 v low 18%
Launceston (Ti Tree Bend) 19.0 +0.8 26.1 24th 6.2 -0.8 1.2 12th 23.4 48.9 low 48%
Launceston Airport 18.4 +0.7 26.5 24th 4.3 -1.1 0.2 9th 17.2 37.6 average 46%
Low Head 15.3 -0.1 20.8 3rd 9.0 -0.6 4.5 12th 11.8 46.6 low 25%
Luncheon Hill (Forestry) 15.7 +0.8 25.7 24th 5.9 -0.2 2.3 5th 65.8 125.9 low 52%
Marrawah 15.3 +0.3 22.0 31st 7.3 -0.9 4.0 2nd 41.0 85.4 v low 48%
Scottsdale (West Minstone Road) 17.2 +0.7 24.5 24th 4.6 -1.3 1.1 9th 27.8 78.9 v low 35%
Sheffield School Farm 15.9 +0.6 22.5 24th 5.1 -0.7 1.7 19th 28.0 72.8 low 38%
Smithton Aerodrome 17.1 +0.7 22.5 31st 5.7 -1.3 0.5 16th 33.0 73.2 low 45%
Wynyard Airport 17.1 +0.8 22.8 21st 5.5 -0.7 0.9 16th 31.2 92.1 low 34%
East Coast (district 92)
Fingal (Legge Street) 19.1 +1.5 29.0 24th 3.9 -1.0 -2.2 1st 10.4 53.1 v low 20%
Friendly Beaches 19.4 +1.1 29.0 25th 7.6 -1.1 2.3 1st 38.6 50.5 average 76%
Lake Leake (Elizabeth River) 14.6 +0.7 24.0 24th 1.8 -1.8 -3.0 1st 34.2 73.8 low 46%
larapuna (Eddystone Point) 17.9 +1.6 24.8 31st 9.3 +0.3 5.3 19th 20.2 66.6 v low 30%
Maria Island (Point Lesueur) 16.8 0.0 25.6 29th 8.8 -0.7 5.4 5th 43.4 30.5 high 142%
Orford (Aubin Court) 18.1 +0.7 27.2 25th 6.5 -0.7 2.1 13th 42.0 57.0 average 74%
St Helens Aerodrome 18.1 +0.5 27.5 31st 7.7 -0.4 3.3 1st 24.8 54.4 average 46%
Swan Island 15.9 -0.2 21.4 31st 10.3 0.0 6.7 9th 30.8 44.8 average 69%
Swansea (Francis Street) 18.7   28.5 3rd 6.5   0.7 5th 34.0
Southeast (district 94)
Campania (Kincora) 19.9 +1.7 29.8 31st 6.0 -0.6 -0.9 5th 34.4 39.9 average 86%
Cape Bruny (Cape Bruny) 17.0 +1.5 27.1 25th 7.8 -0.4 5.2 17th 31.0 64.5 v low 48%
Cape Bruny Lighthouse 15.6 +1.1 26.5 25th 8.4 +0.4 5.8 17th 32.3 82.7 v low 39%
Dennes Point 17.0   26.6 29th 8.2   4.6 13th 21.0
Dover 17.9 +1.5 26.8 25th 5.6 -0.8 1.4 13th 29.0 84.5 v low 34%
Dunalley (Stroud Point) 17.6   27.8 25th 8.3   4.9 16th 25.8
Grove (Research Station) 18.7 +1.3 30.8 31st 4.1 -1.5 -1.1 1st 16.6 56.4 v low 29%
Hobart (Ellerslie Road) 18.8 +1.8 28.2 3rd 7.7 -0.1 2.9 5th 17.6 60.8 v low 29%
Hobart Airport 19.0 +1.6 28.9 3rd 7.1 -0.5 1.9 1st 26.8 45.1 low 59%
kunanyi (Mount Wellington Pinnacle) 9.9 +2.6 22.3 31st 0.8 +0.6 -3.8 19th 64.4 75.0 average 86%
Maatsuyker Island Lighthouse 14.2 +0.9 25.3 31st 7.8 +0.3 4.6 19th 60.2 104.5 v low 58%
Melton Mowbray (North Stockman) 18.9 +1.9 31.0 31st 4.7 -0.9 -1.8 5th 20.2 39.0 v low 52%
Tasman Island 14.0 +0.2 25.2 31st 7.4 -0.3 5.2 19th 23.4 55.0 low 43%
Tunnack Fire Station 16.5 +1.7 27.5 31st 3.2 -1.3 -3.4 5th 34.8 51.0 low 68%
Derwent Valley (district 95)
Bushy Park (Bushy Park Estates) 19.7 +1.9 29.5 24th 4.4 -1.4 -1.0 13th 15.8 56.6 v low 28%
Maydena Post Office 17.3 +1.5 29.0 24th 4.0 -0.7 -1.0 13th 55.2 114.8 low 48%
Ouse Fire Station 19.6 +1.6 32.0 31st 3.8 -1.5 -2.5 5th 24.6 51.4 low 48%
Central Plateau (district 96)
Butlers Gorge 14.9 +2.3 26.8 31st 1.2 -1.2 -4.7 2nd 97.8 158.6 low 62%
Lake St Clair National Park     26.1 24th 0.9 -1.2 -4.4 5th 94.6 177.2 low 53%
Liawenee 13.9 +2.0 25.3 31st 0.0 -0.8 -7.8 5th 18.2 69.2 low 26%
West Coast (district 97)
Cape Sorell 16.4 +2.0 23.1 24th 8.7 0.0 4.8 5th 53.8 105.5 v low 51%
Hartz Mountain (Keoghs Pimple) 13.2 +2.2 26.3 24th 2.7 0.0 -0.7 19th 73.8 89.9 low 82%
Low Rocky Point 15.6   26.7 31st 7.9   4.3 2nd
Scotts Peak Dam 16.9 +2.1 30.6 31st 4.9 -0.3 1.8 12th 111.8 165.4 low 68%
Strahan Aerodrome 17.7 +1.5 31.1 24th 6.8 -0.6 1.3 5th 91.0 118.4 average 77%
Warra 14.9 +1.1 27.1 31st 4.6 +0.3 0.0 13th 84.8 183.3 low 46%
King Island (district 98)
King Island Airport 16.8 +0.8 28.4 31st 8.1 -0.8 1.9 5th 44.4 70.3 low 63%
Flinders Island (district 99)
Flinders Island Airport 17.5 +0.7 28.6 24th 7.5 -1.1 0.5 13th 42.2 57.6 average 73%
Hogan Island 16.6 +0.2 28.8 31st 9.5 -0.8 5.9 17th 32.2 40.3 average 80%
Note: From 2017, information about Macquarie Island can be found in the climate summary for the Remote Islands and Antarctica

Notes

The Monthly climate summary, generally published on the first working day of each month, lists the main features of the weather in Tasmania using the most timely and accurate information available on the date of publication; it will generally not be updated. More extensive discussion of significant weather events, along with later information and data that has had greater opportunity for quality control, will be presented in the Monthly Weather Review.

This statement has been prepared based on information available at 10 am on Friday 1 November 2019. Some checks have been made on the data, but it is possible that results will change as new information becomes available.

In some situations, some or all of the rainfall is in the form of hail or snow. In these cases the totals given are for the water equivalent: the depth of liquid water that results from melting any frozen precipitation. There can be significant 'undercatch' of snow in strong winds, meaning the true precipitation can be higher than that reported.

Averages for individual sites are long-term means based on observations from all available years of record, which vary widely from site to site. They are not shown for sites with less than 10 years of record, as they cannot then be calculated reliably.
The median is sometimes more representative than the mean of long-term average rain.

The Rank indicates how rainfall this time compares with the climate record for the site, based on the decile ranking (very low rainfall is in decile 1, low in decile 2 or 3, average in decile 4 to 7, high in decile 8 or 9 and very high is in decile 10).
The Fraction of average shows how much rain has fallen this time as a percentage of the long-term mean.

Where temperature area averages are mentioned, they are derived from the ACORN-SAT dataset.

Further information

Media
(03) 9669 4057
Enquiries