South Pacific tropical cyclone season forecast

The tropical cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April

Above-average number of tropical cyclones likely in the western South Pacific in 2022–23

  • The established La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean has influenced this year’s tropical cyclone outlook.
  • An above-average number of tropical cyclones is likely (65% likelihood) in the western South Pacific region this season, with model accuracy historically being moderate.
  • A close-to-average to below-average number of tropical cyclones is expected for the eastern South Pacific, but model accuracy is historically very low for this region.

The South Pacific tropical cyclone season is typically from 1 November to 30 April, although tropical cyclones can and do form outside of those bounds. All tropical cyclones existing between 1 July and 30 June the following year count towards the season total. The average numbers of tropical cyclones during the season in the western and eastern regions are four and six, respectively. Tropical cyclones affect Pacific island countries in most years and can impact coastal regions even when they remain well offshore.

This outlook is based upon the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September. La Niña was fully established in the tropical Pacific in September 2022, the third La Niña in successive years. Climate models suggest ENSO will return to neutral conditions in early 2023.

Ocean temperatures are currently above average across the south-western South Pacific Ocean whilst being below average in the north-eastern South Pacific Ocean. Climate models predict this pattern will continue over the coming three months, increasing the likelihood of tropical cyclones developing in the western South Pacific.

Product code: IDCKSPTCSO

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