Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Below average rainfall across much of southern Australia, except Tasmania

October rainfall was below average (in the lowest 30% of all Octobers since 1900) for:

• much of New South Wales
• areas in south-eastern and western Queensland
• parts of eastern and northern Victoria
• part of eastern South Australia
• areas in south-western and central Western Australia.

For New South Wales, area-averaged rainfall was the lowest since 2019, 59% below the October average.

October rainfall was above average (in the highest 30% of all Octobers since 1900) for:

• much of Western Australia
• most of Tasmania
• central and western parts of South Australia
• northern and western Northern Territory
• northern Queensland.

Further details: Monthly climate summaries, Latest National climate summary

Cool season rainfall – April to October

Southern Australia receives most of its rainfall during the cool season, from April to October. This rainfall is critical for water storage, groundwater and streamflow recovery, agriculture and ecosystems. 2025 was the third successive year where the overall April to October rainfall was below the 1961–1990 average for southern Australia (south of 26°S, the South Australia/Northern Territory border).

April to October rainfall was below average (in the lowest 30% of April to Octobers since 1900) for:

• large areas of Western Australia including parts of the south-west
• areas in the east of South Australia
• Victoria and southern New South Wales
• parts of Tasmania
• small areas in southern and inland Queensland.

While the cool season rainfall deficits for agricultural regions in South Australia and in western Victoria were not as significant in 2025 as for 2024, the overall rainfall patterns for southern Australia are similar for both years.

Maps: Recent and historical rainfall maps

Climate change

State of the Climate 2024 has indicated that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. While some areas can have above average rainfall in some seasons, for southern Australia as a whole, April to October rainfall has been below the historical (1961–1990) average in 26 the last 32 years between 1994 and 2025.

The declining trend in rainfall is associated with a trend towards higher surface atmospheric pressure in the region and a shift in large-scale weather patterns. There have been more highs, fewer lows and a reduction in the number of rain-producing lows and cold fronts. Over the southern Australia region, there has been an increase in density, and therefore frequency, of high pressure systems across all seasons.

Long-range forecast for December to February

The long-range forecast, released on 6 November 2025 for December to February 2025 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the east and below average for large parts of the north and west.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of eastern New South Wales.
• Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.

Deficiencies for the 10 months since January 2025

For the 10-month, year-to-date, period since January 2025, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• the Gascoyne and the central interior in Western Australia
• north-eastern agricultural regions in South Australia
• the north-west, south, and central-eastern Victoria
• southern New South Wales
• coastal fringes of south-western and south-eastern Tasmania.

With the rain in October, year-to-date rainfall deficiency areas have reduced in extent and severity in Tasmania and Victoria. Rainfall deficiency areas in northern and central Tasmania have cleared. Deficiencies in south-west Gippsland in Victoria have reduced in severity from lowest on record rainfall to severe. Severe deficiency areas in Western Australia and South Australia have reduced in extent.

Deficiencies for the 21 months since April 2023

For the 21-month period since February 2024, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• agricultural regions of South Australia
• much of Victoria, except for areas along the northern border and east Gippsland
• parts of southern New South Wales
• the coastal fringe of western Tasmania, King Island and small areas extending inland in the north and east.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall (compared to all periods since 1900) include:

• large areas of the agricultural areas in South Australia from the eastern Eyre Peninsula, to the eastern border of the state
• areas in western Victoria, and south-west Gippsland.

Compared to September, long-term rainfall deficiency areas have expanded and intensified in southern New South Wales, and contracted or became less severe in north-west Tasmania. Long-term rainfall deficiency areas are largely unchanged in affected areas of South Australia and Victoria, although the regions of lowest on record rainfall have contracted slightly since September.

Deficiencies for the 31 months since April 2023

For the 31-month period since April 2023, which also includes the previous two southern cool seasons, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• areas in the west and south-west of Western Australia
• agricultural regions of South Australia
• much of southern and part of the north-east Victoria
• a small area of alpine New South Wales
• areas across Tasmania.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall (compared to all periods since 1900) include:

• parts of the Yorke Peninsula and Mid North district in South Australia
• coastline from Warrnambool towards Cape Otway in Victoria.

Since September areas of lowest on record rainfall have slightly contracted in south-eastern states.

.

Soil moisture below average in much of the mainland east

October root zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Octobers since 1911) in:

• much of Victoria excluding the coastal south-west
• southern New South Wales and parts of the New South Wales wheatbelt
• areas of south-eastern Queensland
• parts of southern and central Western Australia
• scattered areas of South Australia
• a small area in Tasmania's south-east.

Areas of soil moisture deficits expanded through parts of eastern Australia during the month with some very much below average conditions developing in the New South Wales Riverina region and eastern Victoria. This was largely due to average to below average rainfall combined with periods of elevated heat during the month. Although rainfall towards the end of the month increased soil moisture across much of the south-east of the mainland, it did not overcome the deficit for the month.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time is an indicator of agricultural drought, affecting ongoing crop growth, and the pasture growth required for livestock. During the southern winter cropping season low soil moisture can impact crop emergence, establishment and growth.

Evaporative stress increasing in the east

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 October 2025 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• northern and eastern Victorian
• much of New South Wales west of the Great Dividing Range
• most of southern Queensland and the Northern Territory
• South Australia excluding the coastal south-west and south-east
• parts of the Western Australian wheatbelt and Pilbara-Gascoyne region.

During October, evaporative stress expanded and intensified in many inland areas including western New South Wales and part of Western Australia's west. Areas along the Queensland coast where evaporative stress developed during September also intensified this month. An area of significantly elevated (below −2) ESI has emerged in Victoria's far east extending into New South Wales, and values are also high in the New South Wales – Victoria border region.

See this journal publication for further details on calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring.

Below average rainfall across parts of Western Australia and much of the south-eastern mainland

• October rainfall was below average for much of New South Wales, and parts of Victoria, south-eastern Queensland and southern and central Western Australia.
• Year-to-date rainfall deficiency areas have reduced in severity and extent in Tasmania and southern Victoria.
• Areas of long-term rainfall deficiencies have expanded in southern New South Wales.
• Soil moisture deficits have expanded and intensified in much of the eastern mainland.
• Streamflow was below average at many sites across southern Australia and central eastern Queensland, with some locations recording their lowest October streamflow on record.
• Some water storages in the southern and eastern states have declined by up to 50% compared to this time last year.

Low streamflow in south-eastern Australia and central Queensland

Streamflow was lower than average at 29% of the 912 sites with available data across Australia in October (based on records since 1975). These below-average flows were primarily associated with average to below average rainfall, which reduced soil moisture and runoff across many catchments. Regions with a high proportion of sites with lower than average streamflow included:

• the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (51% of 99 sites)
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (60% of 10 sites)
• eastern areas of Tasmania (18% of 22 sites)
• the Murray–Darling Basin (42% of 340 sites), particularly throughout the southern half and northern areas of the Basin
• some sites in central and southern areas of the North East Coast (18% of 167 sites), and two sites in the Carpentaria Coast drainage divisions in Queensland
• some sites in the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (21% of 76 sites) and a single site in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded at 4% of sites in October. These sites were concentrated in:

• central eastern areas of the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division
• southern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin
• three sites in the South Australian Gulf drainage division
• five sites in the south of the North East Coast drainage division and a single site in the Carpentaria Coast drainage division in Queensland
• four sites in the Western Australia drainage division.

Streamflow in October was around average at 53% of the 912 sites with available data, across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 18% of sites, with 4% of sites observing very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975). Regions with higher than average streamflow included:

• across northern Australia in the Tanami–Timor Sea Coast drainage division (43% of 28 sites), and eastern and southern areas of the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (57% of 33 sites) and a single site in the Lake Eyre Basin
• across the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland (30% of 167 sites)
• north and central areas of the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (18% of 112 sites) and sites in the Murray–Darling Basin
• across Tasmania (55% of 22 sites), particularly northern areas and a single site in the south.
• Across the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (11% of 76 sites) as well as two sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

Higher than average October rainfall increased soil moisture and runoff in northern Australia, parts of the west of Western Australia and Tasmania, contributing above average October streamflow in those catchments.

Low storage levels in southern Australia, the Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of October, total water storage across Australia—based on 306 public storages—was at 69.4% of capacity, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month, but 3.9% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes declined in 185 storages during October, with relatively low levels observed in several regions, including:

• the south-eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria, particularly in western areas
• central Tasmania
• central eastern Queensland
• the Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division
• Perth urban storages.

These declines generally reflected low inflows and management of water releases during October in the affected regions.

North East Coast

Storage volume decreased in 53 of the 69 storages in the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland during October. Overall, storages across the North East Coast drainage division were at 68.6% of capacity at the end of October, a monthly decrease of 3.2% and slightly (0.6%) lower than at the same time last year.

Several storages remained below 50% of capacity at the end of October, notably Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga, Queensland’s second- and fourth-largest storages respectively.

Fairbairn decreased by 1.5%, finishing the month at 17.2%. The decline at Fairbairn contributed to reduced overall volumes in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system (17.2% full) in October, which supplies water to rural communities across central Queensland. Lake Awoonga also decreased by 1.0%, ending October at 30.3%.

South-eastern Australia

Many storages across the Murray–Darling Basin and South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division were below or close to 50% of capacity by the end of October, including Hume Dam, Australia’s seventh-largest reservoir, and Lake Eucumbene. Hume Dam decreased by 6.7% during October, finishing at 49.1%.

The overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 3.2% during October, finishing the month at 67.9% and 8.1% lower than at the same time last year. With dry catchment conditions and increased demand during the irrigation season (October to March), the storage volume decreased across southern Murray–Darling Basin.

Overall storage volume across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division increased by 2.7% in October, ending the month at 45.5%. In the Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply for domestic and agricultural use in western Victoria, storages increased by 1.1%, reaching 43.7% by the end of October. However, this was 10.5% lower than at the same time last year.

In Tasmania, the two largest storages—Lake Gordon and Great Lake—were at 58.0% and 38.7%, respectively, by the end of October. Total storage across Tasmania was 68.3%, an increase of 2.7% from September, but 2.4% lower than this time last year.

Western Australia

Harding Reservoir, the only major storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division, was at 19.3% of capacity at the end of October, a decrease of 1.5% from the previous month, and 4.2% lower than at the same time last year.

Urban storages

At the end of October, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were above accessible capacity, with the exceptions of Adelaide and Perth. Storages for both cities remain low, following an extended period of severe rainfall deficiencies reducing surface water inflows into regional storages.

Perth’s surface water storages were 46.4% full at the end of October, an increase of 0.4% from the previous month, but 2.0% down from the same time last year. The two largest storages supplying Perth remained below 40% capacity, with South Dandalup at 10.5% and Serpentine at 33.1%.

The long-term decline in surface water inflows, driven by underlying climate change, means Perth now relies heavily on desalination and groundwater to meet urban water demand.

Adelaide’s storages were 65.8% full at the end of October, an increase of 3.0% from the previous month, and 14.5% higher than at the same time last year. Most of the storages in Adelaide remained close to 50% capacity. Adelaide’s urban water supply is augmented by transfers from the River Murray, with additional support from desalination and groundwater. River Murray pipelines also supply water to the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and parts of south-east South Australia.

Melbourne's water storages declined sharply due to a warm, dry autumn and winter with below average rainfall and streamflow, leading to a decrease of 16.5% from the same time last year and finishing the month at 73.5% capacity. In response to persistent rainfall deficiencies, the Victorian desalination plant has been support water supply to the Melbourne and Geelong areas.