Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Below average December rainfall in areas of central, southern and eastern Australia

December rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all Decembers since 1900) for:

• south-western Northern Territory
• areas along the western and southern coasts of Western Australia
• parts of south-western Queensland and eastern New South Wales
• much of South Australia
• areas scattered across Victoria
• north-eastern Tasmania.

For South Australia, area-averaged rainfall was the lowest since 2019, around 64% below the December average.

December rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the highest 10% of all Decembers since 1900) for:

• much of northern and western Queensland
• large parts of the Northern Territory
• scattered areas in the west and parts of northern Western Australia
• areas in central and north-western New South Wales
• parts of far north-eastern South Australia.

Further details: Monthly climate summaries, Latest National climate summary

Recent months

Over the last 3 months, between October and December 2025, rainfall was below average across:

• most of New South Wales
• parts of southern Queensland
• northern Victoria
• parts of eastern South Australia
• areas of western and southern Western Australia.

Westerly winds, associated with a persistent negative state of the Southern Annual Mode during this period, limited moist easterly flow into south-eastern Australia, and was one of the factors reducing rainfall.

Area-averaged rainfall was around 38% below the October to December average across New South Wales, and around 26% below average across the Murray-Darling Basin.

Maps: Recent and historical rainfall maps

2025 rainfall – January to December

2025 rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all springs since 1900) for:

• most of Tasmania
• Victoria
• South Australia
• southern and inland areas of New South Wales
• large parts of Western Australia.

Rainfall for 2025 was above average to very much above average (in the highest 10% of all springs since 1900) for:

• much of Queensland
• northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory
• coastal areas of New South Wales
• northern and some southern areas of Western Australia.

Multi-season deficiencies

We have stopped documenting the rainfall deficiency period since April 2023 but continue to document deficiencies over the last two years.

One to four year rainfall maps are available at Recent and historical rainfall maps.

Drought recovery

In some parts of southern Australia that have experienced multi-season rainfall deficiencies, above average 2025 spring rainfall improved root zone soil moisture, plant growth and some water storages. However, deeper soil moisture, groundwater, streamflow, ecosystems, and larger storages require sustained above average rainfall to recover from extended dry periods. Hydrological flow in some regions has not recovered from the millennium drought.

Climate change

State of the Climate 2024 indicated that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. Despite occasional wetter seasons in some areas, southern Australia has recorded below-average April–October rainfall (area-averaged) in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025. The decline in southern Australia's cool season rainfall is linked to rising surface pressure and shifts in large-scale weather patterns, with more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

Long-range forecast for February to April

The long-range forecast, released on 8 January 2026 for February to April 2026 shows:

• For much of eastern and central Australia, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall for the three months. This means there are a range of possible outcomes, including above, below or near-average rainfall.
• While there are some small areas in Queensland and New South Wales that have a slightly increased chance of above average rainfall for February to April, the broader signal across the region is weak.
• Rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for western parts of the Northern Territory, much of Western Australia, south-east South Australia, and western Tasmania.
• Both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the three months.

Deficiencies for the 12 months since January 2025

For the 12-month, year-to-date, period since January 2025, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across small areas in:

• the Gascoyne and the central interior of Western Australia
• the north-eastern agricultural regions in South Australia particularly in the Riverland, and an area in the north
• northern Victoria
• southern New South Wales.

During December, year-to-date rainfall deficiency areas expanded slightly, and in Western Australia and South Australia some deficiency areas intensified.

Deficiencies for the 24 months since February 2024

For the 24-month period since January 2024, which includes the last two southern cool seasons, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• agricultural regions of South Australia
• much of western and southern Victoria
• parts of southern New South Wales
• some coastal margins in Tasmania
• small areas in the south of Western Australia.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall (compared to all respective periods since 1900) include:

• parts of Eyre and Yorke peninsulas, and large areas of the Mid North and Murraylands districts
• isolated areas in southern Victoria.

Compared to November, lowest on record deficiency areas have contracted slightly, and deficiency extent contracted in northern and central Victoria, and southern New South Wales.

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Soil moisture below average in parts of the east and south

December root zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Decembers since 1911) in:

• parts of coastal and northern New South Wales
• scattered areas of southern Queensland
• areas of Western Australia including the Nullarbor region, extending into much of western South Australia.

Areas of soil moisture deficiencies expanded and intensified along the southern New South Wales coast and parts of western South Australia during December, with below average rainfall impacting those areas. However, average to above average rainfall eased deficiencies in western New South Wales and surrounding border areas where below average conditions had been developing.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time is an indicator of agricultural drought, affecting ongoing crop growth, and pasture growth required for livestock. During cropping seasons, low soil moisture can impact crop emergence, establishment and growth.

Evaporative stress increasing in the south

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 26 December 2025 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• much of northern and southern New South Wales extending into northern Victoria
• Queensland's south-west and some inland areas
• much of South Australia excluding the far north-east and south-east
• central areas of the Northern Territory
• most of Western Australia excluding the far north and parts of the south-west
• parts of eastern Tasmania.

During December, evaporative stress intensified in South Australia and southern Western Australia with areas of significantly elevated ESI (below −2) developing. The index indicated increasing stress across most of southern Australia over the month, with the exception of western New South Wales and south-west Queensland where evaporative stress eased slightly.

See this journal publication for further details on the calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring. Negative ESI values can indicate vegetation moisture stress reflecting agricultural and ecological drought. A rapid decrease in ESI values can be an indicator of flash drought.

Rainfall deficiencies and water storage at the end of December

• December rainfall was below average for much of South Australia, parts of Western Australia and areas in the country's east.
• Rainfall deficiencies for the 12-month period from January 2025 persisted in small areas of inland and southern Australia, while longer-term rainfall deficiencies extend across large areas of the south-east.
• Soil moisture deficits have expanded and intensified in parts of the south, particularly the south-east coast, and eased in parts of the inland east.
• Streamflow was below average at many sites across southern and eastern Australia.
• Some water storages in the eastern and southern states have declined by up to 50% compared to this time last year.

Low streamflow in southern and south-eastern Australia

Streamflow was lower than average at 27% of the 882 sites with available data across Australia in December (based on records since 1975). Below-average flows were mostly associated with average to below average rainfall, which reduced root zone soil moisture and runoff across many catchments including eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Regions with a high proportion of sites with lower than average streamflow included:

• the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (15% of 102 sites)
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (60% of 10 sites)
• eastern areas of Tasmania (43% of 21 sites)
• north and south-eastern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin (37% of 338 sites) across South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (44% of 109 sites)
• the North East Coast (7% of 151 sites) and west and east of the Lake Eyre Basin drainage divisions in Queensland (44% of 9 sites)
• mainly central west of the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (25% of 77 sites).

Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded at 2% of sites in December, including:

• six sites in the north-east and south-east areas of the Murray–Darling Basin
• four sites in South East Coast (New South Wales), two sites in the central areas of the South East Coast (Victoria), one site in the South Australian Gulf drainage division, and one site in the Tasmania
• one site in the south of the North East Coast drainage division
• five sites in the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia.

Streamflow in December was average at 54% of the 882 sites with available data, across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 19% of sites, with 3% of sites observing very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975). Regions with higher than average streamflow included:

• the Tanami–Timor Sea Coast drainage division (52% of 29 sites), and across the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (91% of 22 sites)
• across the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland (36% of 151 sites)
• the north and centre of the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (9% of 109 sites) and across the Murray–Darling Basin (9% of 338 sites)
• southern coastal areas and central east of the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (22% of 86 sites), one site in the South Australian Gulf drainage division and two sites in the north-west of Tasmania (10% of 21 sites).
• the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (18% of 77 sites) and three sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

Higher than average December rainfall increased runoff in northern Australia and parts of the west of Western Australia, contributing above average December streamflow in those catchments.

Low storage levels in western Victoria, the southern Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of December, total water storage across Australia—based on 303 public storages—was at 68.4% of capacity, down by 0.9% from the previous month, but 4.2% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes decreased in 192 storages during December, with relatively low levels observed in several regions, including:

• the southern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria, particularly in western areas
• central eastern Queensland
• the Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division
• Perth urban storages.

These declines in New South Wales and south-west Queensland were generally due to average to below average rainfall. Extremely dry conditions since winter 2023 in Victoria reduced inflows to the storages and large volumes were diverted for agriculture during spring and high summer demand in 2025. Extended dry spells over many years, despite occasional wet winters, have kept storages low in south-west Western Australia.

North East Coast

Storage volume decreased in 34 of the 69 storages in the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland during December. Overall, storages across the North East Coast drainage division were at 72.6% of capacity at the end of December, an increase of 5.3% compared to the previous month and 5.7% lower than at the same time last year.

Several storages remained below 50% of capacity at the end of December, notably Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga, Queensland’s second- and fourth-largest storages respectively.

Fairbairn decreased slightly by 1.2%, finishing the month at 15.7%. The decline at Fairbairn contributed to reduced overall volumes in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system which declined to 15.7% of capacity in December. This system supplies water to rural communities across central Queensland. Lake Awoonga had a small increase in December ending at 33.4%, 3.3% higher than at the start of the month.

South-eastern Australia

Many storages across the Murray–Darling Basin and the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division were below or close to 50% of capacity by the end of December, including Hume Dam, Australia’s seventh-largest reservoir, and Lake Eucumbene. Hume Dam decreased by 7.5% during December, finishing at 36.2%, 15.9% lower than at the same time last year.

The overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 5.1% during December, finishing the month at 61.1% and 10.5% lower than at the same time last year. With dry catchment conditions and increased demand during the irrigation season (October to March), the storage volume decreased in 13 of the 33 storages across southern Murray–Darling Basin.

Overall storage volume across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division slightly decreased by 0.3% in December, ending the month at 46.5%. In the Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply for domestic and agricultural use in western Victoria, storages were at 40.9% of capacity, down by 2.7% compared to the previous month. However, this was 6.6% lower than at the same time last year.

In Tasmania, the two largest storages—Lake Gordon and Great Lake were at 65.0% and 38.6%, respectively, by the end of December. Total storage across Tasmania was 71.0%, an increase of 1.0% from November, and 5.3% higher than this time last year.

Western Australia

The Harding Reservoir, the only major storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division, was at 16.7% of capacity at the end of December, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous month, and 3.0% lower than at the same time last year.

Urban storages

At the end of December, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were close to or above 75% of accessible capacity, with the exceptions of Adelaide and Perth. Storages for these cities remain relatively low, following extended periods of severe rainfall deficiencies reducing surface water inflows into regional storages.

Perth recorded slightly above average rainfall and soil moisture in December. Perth’s surface water storages remained steady at 45.9% of capacity at the end of December, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month, and 0.9% higher than at the same time last year. The two largest storages supplying Perth remained below 40% capacity, with South Dandalup at 9.1% and Serpentine at 33.1%.

The long-term decline in surface water inflows, driven by underlying climate change, means Perth now relies heavily on desalination and groundwater to meet urban water demand.

Adelaide’s storages were 63.7% full at the end of December, a decrease of 3.5% from the previous month, and 18.5% higher than at the same time last year. Most of the storages in Adelaide remained above 60% capacity except South Para at 48.8% capacity. Storages rises were driven by operational factors, Murray River inflows and local catchment runoff.

Adelaide’s urban water supply is augmented by transfers from the River Murray, with additional support from desalination and groundwater. River Murray pipelines also supply water to the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and parts of south-east South Australia.

Melbourne's water storages declined sharply during 2025 due to a warmer than average autumn and winter with below average rainfall and streamflow. By the end of December, Melbourne's storages were 74.7% full, a decrease of 11.3% from the same time last year although a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month.

In response to persistent rainfall deficiencies, the Victorian desalination plant has been in operation to support water supply to the Melbourne and Geelong areas.