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Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Rainfall deficiencies and water availability at the end of July

• July rainfall was below average in the west, parts of the south and large areas in the east, and it was above average in the far north and central inland areas.
• Long-range forecasts for 6-month rainfall deficiencies to the end of October, show likely deficiency areas in south-west Western Australia, parts of eastern Queensland and some south-eastern coastal areas.
• Areas with 2026-to-date rainfall deficiencies expanded and intensified in the west and south-west of Western Australia, north-eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland.
• Areas with rainfall deficiencies for the latest 24 months, expanded and intensified in the south-west of Western Australia, southern Victoria and Tasmania, and persisted in South Australia.
• Soil moisture deficits were below average in parts of the west and east, with the largest areas in Queensland.
• Streamflow was lower than average at many sites across southern Australia, the south-west of Western Australia, parts of eastern Australia and southern Queensland.
• Some water storages in the eastern and southern states are at or below 50% of their capacity.
• Groundwater levels were above average in northern Australia and below average across southern Australia.

Low July rainfall in western, eastern and parts of southern Australia 

July area-averaged rainfall totals were below average for all states, except for the Northern Territory.

July rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all Julys since 1900) for:

• south-eastern Queensland and areas in central and northern regions
• parts eastern New South Wales, eastern and western Victoria, southern South Australia
• small areas in eastern Tasmania.

July rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all Julys since 1900) for:

• the south of the Northern Territory
• north-eastern South Australia
• south-western Queensland
• north-western areas of New South Wales
• parts of Victoria and Tasmania
• areas in north of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland.

It is the dry season in northern Australia with typically low rainfall, so map colours in the north can represent small differences in rainfall totals.

May to July rainfall

Rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all May to July periods since 1900) for:

• parts of the south-west and north-west of Western Australia
• large areas of eastern Queensland
• parts of south-coastal New South Wales, and a small area in the north-east
• far-eastern Victoria
• south-western Tasmania.

The south-west of Western Australia had a large area of very much below average rainfall, including an area north of Albany with lowest on record rainfall for all May to July periods since 1900.

Rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all May to July periods since 1900) for:

• parts of the north and south-east of Western Australia
• much of the Northern Territory
• most of South Australia
• inland Queensland and New South Wales, and part of the central-east coast
• much of Victoria, except the far-east
• coastal northern Tasmania.

Multi-year rainfall deficiencies

Rainfall for the 36 months ending in July 2026 was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all August to July 36-month periods since 1900) for:

• large areas of the west and south-west of Western Australia
• south-eastern agricultural areas in South Australia
• much of Victoria
• areas along New South Wales western slopes, and into south-eastern Queensland

Long-range forecast for September to November

The long-range forecast, released on 6 August 2026 for September to November 2026 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average across parts of the south and east and above average across the western half of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.

Rainfall deficiency forecasts

Long-range forecasts from our ACCESS-S model indicates that for 6-month rainfall deficiencies ending in October 2026:

• Existing deficiencies are favoured to persist in south-west Western Australia and parts of north-eastern New South Wales.
• Existing deficiencies have roughly an equal chance of easing or persisting in parts of eastern Queensland, eastern Victoria and the Ningaloo coast in Western Australia.
• There is the possibility of new deficiencies developing in parts of eastern Australia including areas of eastern Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory and around the Ningaloo coast.

ACCESS-S indicates that for forecast 9-month deficiencies ending in October 2026:

• Existing deficiencies are favoured to persist in south-west Western Australia and north-eastern New South Wales.
• Existing deficiencies have roughly an equal chance of easing or persisting in other regions (parts of north-west Western Australia and southern-eastern Queensland).
• There is the possibility of new deficiencies developing in north-west Western Australia and parts of eastern Australia.

Existing deficiencies are areas with rainfall in the lowest 10% of records for the 3 months of May 2026 to July 2026 or 6 months of February 2026 to July 2026.

Deficiencies for the 7 months since January 2026

For the 7 months ending in July 2026, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of years, respectively, since 1900) include:

• parts of north-eastern New South Wales into south-eastern Queensland
• areas of the south-west and the Pilbara–Gascoyne region in Western Australia

During July, areas of severe rainfall deficiency developed in the south-west of Western Australia, and deficiency areas expanded and intensified in the Pilbara–Gascoyne region, north-eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Deficiencies for the 24 months since August 2024

For the latest 24-month period ending in July 2026, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across parts of:

• the south-west, and coastal Gascoyne region in Western Australia
• south-eastern agricultural regions in South Australia
• southern Victoria
• southern New South Wales
• eastern Tasmania.

Compared with the 24-month period ending in June 2026, areas of rainfall deficiency intensified and expanded in the south-west of Western Australia, southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania.

Soil moisture was below average across parts of western and eastern Australia

During July, root-zone soil moisture deficits expanded across eastern Australia, while intensifying in south-western and southern Western Australia.

July root-zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average for:

• large parts of eastern Queensland
• parts of coastal and north-eastern New South Wales
• parts of south-eastern Victoria
• parts of south-western and southern Western Australia, including isolated areas in the lowest 1%
• small areas of western South Australia and the south-east of the Northern Territory.

Above-average soil moisture remained widespread across central and southern inland Australia during July, although areas of very much above-average soil moisture became less extensive. Areas of above-average soil moisture contracted across inland Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and inland parts of eastern New South Wales, but emerged across western Tasmania.

Soil moisture was generally close to average elsewhere.

Evaporative stress increased across western and eastern Australia

During July, areas of below-average actual evapotranspiration were extensive in western and southern Western Australia, as well as from central eastern Queensland, extending into inland parts of north-eastern New South Wales, and parts of Victoria and Tasmania. Evapotranspiration was generally average to above average across central and southern inland Australia where it was not limited by soil moisture.

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 July 2026 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• large areas of western and southern Western Australia, particularly in the south-west
• large areas of central and eastern Queensland
• inland parts of north-eastern New South Wales, and coastal and adjacent inland areas of southern New South Wales
• much of Victoria, except parts of the north-west
• south-eastern South Australia
• parts of the Northern Territory
• north-eastern Tasmania.

Throughout the month, evaporative stress increased across western and south-western Western Australia, central and eastern Queensland, southern South Australia, inland parts of north-eastern New South Wales, and coastal and adjacent inland areas of southern New South Wales and Victoria. These changes generally coincided with below-average rainfall, while evaporative stress also increased across much of Tasmania, where rainfall was generally close to average.

Low streamflow in southern Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland

Streamflow was lower than average at 23% of the 919 sites with available data across Australia in July (based on records since 1975). Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded in July at 6% of sites (including 1% of sites with lowest on record). Below average rainfall, particularly in the west of Western Australia and eastern Australia, reduced root-zone soil moisture and runoff in those catchments. Regions with lower-than-average streamflow included:

• central and southern areas of the North East Coast (14% of 167 sites) with 6% sites in the central east and south were very much below average
• northern and eastern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin (17% of 339 sites) with 5% sites in the north-east were very much below average.
• across the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (27% of 110 sites) with two sites in the north were very much below average
• across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (24% of 107 sites) with three sites were very much below average
• two sites in the South Australian Gulf (20% of 10 sites) including a single site with very much below average
• eastern areas of Tasmania (33% of 21 sites)
• across the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (67% of 76 sites) with 25% sites were very much below average
• a single site in the Lake Eyre Basin and three sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

Streamflow in July was average at 42% of sites spread across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 35% of sites, with 11% of sites recording very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975), mostly in northern Australia and at some sites in Southern Australia.

Low water storage levels in Victoria, the southern Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of July, total water storage across Australia (302 public storages) was at 69.2% of capacity, an increase of 3.1% from the previous month, and an increase of 2.5% from this time last year. Storage volumes decreased in 137 storages during July, with 56 storages below 50% capacity at the end of the month in:

• south-eastern Queensland
• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria and South-eastern South Australia
• Perth urban storages in Western Australia
• parts of Tasmania.

Declines in storages over the past month across the country were associated with dry catchment conditions and reduced inflows to major storages.

North East Coast and South-eastern Australia

In the North East Coast drainage division, overall storage levels remained relatively high, ending July at 77.4% of capacity. Several storages remained below 50%, including Fairbairn Dam, Queensland’s second-largest storage, which finished the month at 30.8%, down 1.2% from last month, but up 9.7% from last year.

Overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin was 60.7% at the end of July, up 7.4% from last month, but lower than this time last year.  Hume Dam increased by 20.8% during July, finishing at 56.3%, and up 9.4% since last year. Menindee Lakes in western New South Wales a slightly up 0.5% from previous month and finished at 25.8% of capacity at the end of July, and 51.6% lower than this time last year.

Urban storages

At the end of July, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were close to or above 80% of accessible capacity, except for those in Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.

Perth’s surface water storages were at 37.7% of accessible capacity at the end of July, a slight increase of 1.3% from the previous month, and slightly lower (0.8%) than at the same time last year.

Adelaide’s storages were 61.5% full at the end of July, up 14.4% from last month, and up 9.2% higher than at this time last year.

Melbourne's water storages increased by 2.4% from the previous month, finishing at 66.5% capacity.

Below average groundwater levels in areas of southern and eastern Australia

Groundwater conditions in July showed a north-south contrast, with above-average groundwater levels across northern New South Wales, Queensland and parts of northern Australia, and below-average levels across southern Australia. Regions with a high proportion of lower-than-average groundwater levels included:

• the Murray–Darling Basin, especially in the Riverina and southern Basin
• Victoria and parts of New South Wales
   the south-east of South Australia, and along the South Australia–Victoria border
• Perth and the south-west of Western Australia.

Bores with average groundwater levels were scattered across Southern Australia, parts of New South Wales and Victoria.

Groundwater levels were predominantly above average across Northern Australia, Queensland and northern New South Wales, the Murray–Darling Basin, Tasmania and isolated pockets in Victoria.

Over the 5-year period to July 2026, around 28% of bores with 5-year trend showed a rising trend, mainly in northern Australia, Queensland, parts of southern Murray–Darling Basin and northern New South Wales, while 21% showed a declining 5-year trend, reflecting the dry conditions in the south-west of Western Australia, southern Murray-Darling Basin, northern New South Wales, southern Victoria and Tasmania. Over the 10- and 20-year periods, groundwater levels were mostly stable across Australia, except in parts of southern Australia where declining trends persisted.

Recent decades

State of the Climate 2024 reported that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. Even with occasional wetter seasons in some areas, southern Australia has recorded below-average April–October rainfall in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025.

The decline in southern Australia's cool season rainfall is linked to rising surface pressure and shifts in large-scale weather patterns, with more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

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