Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Below average rainfall through large areas of Australia

January rainfall was below average to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Decembers since 1900) for:

• most of the Northern Territory, South Australia and Tasmania
• large parts of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria
• parts of south-western Western Australia.

Rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the highest 10% of Decembers since 1900) for:

• parts of Western Australia's Kimberley, Pilbara and Gascoyne districts
• most of the New South Wales coast and adjacent inland areas
• parts of the Queensland's Capricornia district.

Australia's area-averaged mean temperature in January was 2.15 °C above the 1961–1990 average, the second-warmest January on record for Australia since 1910. Only in 2019 has January been warmer across Australia.

January is the fourth month of the northern rainfall onset. Much of the north-west, and parts of the Top End of the Northern Territory and the Queensland east coast have had above average rainfall since 1 October 2024, while large areas of the Northern Territory and inland and far north Queensland have had below average rainfall.

At the end of January, the monsoon onset criteria at Darwin, as formally recognised by the Bureau, had not been met. The latest recorded arrival of the monsoon at Darwin since records began in 1957–58 was on 25 January 1973 during the 1972–73 wet season. This makes the 2024–25 wet season the latest Darwin monsoon onset on record.

The long-range forecast, released on 6 February 2025 for March to May 2025 shows:

• Rainfall is likely (60 to 80% chance) to be above average across much of northern Australia, and parts of Western Australia.
• Rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for for much of southern Australia
• There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for large parts of northern Australia, and small parts of the south-west of Western Australia, with highest chances across northern Queensland, where it's up to 2.5 times the normal chance
• Above average maximum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia

Deficiencies for the 12 months since February 2024

For the 12-month period since February 2024, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend along:

• small areas of the south coast of Western Australia
• agricultural regions of South Australia extending into western Victoria
• coastal areas of South Gippsland in Victoria and small areas of the eastern ranges into southern New South Wales
• coastal north-west Tasmania including King Island.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• the coastline near Albany in Western Australia
• Iarge parts of the Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Murraylands and Upper South East districts in South Australia
• the coastline near Warrnambool in Victoria and near Sandy Cape in north-western Tasmania.

Compared to December, areas of rainfall deficiency increased in severity in South Australia and Victoria.

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Below average soil moisture in much of the southern, central and northern mainland

January root zone soil moisture was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Decembers since 1900) in:

• parts of the southern and eastern Western Australia
• much of South Australia, Victoria and the Northern Territory
• large parts of western New South Wales and Queensland.

During January, soil moisture deficits continued across the southern mainland and intensified in South Australia and Victoria. A lack of wet season rainfall also saw soil moisture deficits expand into northern Australia where soil moisture content is highest during the summer and early autumn months.

Soil moisture deficits also expanded in January through areas of central Australia. However, at this time of year, root zone soil moisture is typically low across inland Australia south of the tropics. Therefore differences between above and below average soil moisture can be relatively small in these areas.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time affects crop growth and can be an indicator of agricultural drought.

High evaporative stress continues in parts of southern mainland

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 January 2025 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• western Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania
• most of South Australia
• the Northern Territory excluding some parts of Arnhem Land
• southern and north-eastern Western Australia.

Moisture stress decreased in eastern New South Wales during January but increased through inland and much of the central north of the country during the month in response to below average rainfall and above average temperatures. The ESI was significantly elevated (below −2) in pockets of the Northern Territory's Carpentaria district.

The ESI represents the anomaly of the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration standardised for the time of year. A lower ratio indicates higher vegetation moisture stress due to limited water availability and can be an indicator of agricultural and ecological drought.

See this journal publication for further details on calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring.

Rainfall deficiencies and water shortage at the end of December

• January rainfall was below average in much of Australia except in the north-west and along the parts of the east coast.
• Recent rainfall deficiency areas increased in severity in South Australia and Victoria.
• Areas of soil moisture deficiencies expanded throughout much of mainland Australia, excluding the east coast and central-west Western Australia.
• Streamflow was low at a large number of sites in southern mainland, Tasmania and scattered sites in northern Australia.
• Many waters storages in south-eastern states were 10 to 50% lower than the same time last year, and some water storage levels were low in the south-west of Western Australia in central Queensland.

Low streamflow in southern Australia and central Queensland

In January, above average (based on records since 1975) streamflow was observed at 24% of the 879 sites with available data. These were mostly in the north-west and eastern Australia. January streamflow was average at 49% of sites, spread across Australia. Very much above average streamflow (highest 10% of years since 1975) was observed at 4% of sites, including 1% of sites with highest on record, across:

• the north-west of Western Australia, mainly in the Pilbara-Gascoyne region
• south-eastern areas of Queensland
• eastern areas of New South Wales.

This was due to above average rainfall and wet catchment conditions in those regions.

Below average streamflow was observed in December at 27% of sites. These were mostly associated with below average rainfall and dry catchment conditions. These were observed in:

• south-west of Western Australia (50% of 77 sites)
• west and central east areas of the South East Coast, Victoria drainage division (47% of 100 sites)
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (60% of 10 sites)
• south and north-east areas of the Murray–Darling Basin drainage division (27% of the 322 sites)
• across Tasmania (50% of 22 sites)
• a few sites in the North East Coast drainage division (6% of 146 sites)
• western and north-eastern areas of the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (51% of 33 sites)
• scattered sites across of the Northern Territory (29% of 30 sites)
• across the Lake Eyre Basin (74% of 8 sites).

Very much below average streamflow (lowest 10% of years since 1975) was observed at 6% of sites, including 1% of sites with lowest on record, across:

• western Victoria and Tasmania
• scattered sites in the northern Australia
• the south-west of Western Australia.

Low storage levels in the west of Western Australia, southern Australia and central Queensland

By the end of January the total water storage in Australia (across 306 public storages) was at 70.4% of capacity, 2.4% lower than the previous month and 7.8% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes decreased in January for 202 public storages and were relatively low in several regions including:

• central Queensland
• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria, mostly in the west
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division
• western and central Tasmania
• urban areas of Perth.

The decrease in storage volumes were generally in regions that had dry catchment conditions during January and inflows to the storage were low.

There has been a continued decline in storage levels in January for many storages in southern Australia, such as the Hume dam and in the Wimmera–Mallee. With dry catchment conditions and increased demand during the irrigation season (October to March), the storage volume decreased across both northern and southern Murray–Darling Basin. Combined storages in the Murray–Darling Basin were 65.2% full at the end of January, a 6.4% decrease from December and a 18.8% decrease from the same time last year. Water storage in Hume dam was at 41.3% of capacity at the end of January, a 12.1% decrease from December and a 41.7% decrease from the same time last year. The Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply to western Victoria for both domestic and agricultural purposes, experienced a 4.1% decrease from December and a 21.6% decrease from the same time last year.

Storage volume decreased in January for many central Queensland storages such as Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga. The overall storage volume in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system, an important rural water supply for central Queensland communities, were 22.9% full at the end of January a decline by 2.2% from December and 16.1% from the same time last year.

Water storage in Great Lake in central-northern Tasmania, the second largest by capacity in the state, was 32.2% full at the end of the month, a 1.0% decrease from December and an increase of 1.8% from the same time last year.

At the end of January, the surface water storages supplying most capital cities were high (over 80% of their accessible capacity), with the exception of storages supplying Adelaide (41.1%), Perth (43.3%), where there was severe rainfall deficiency in the last 12 months. Perth's surface water storages were 43.3% full at the end of January, a 2.1% decrease from December, and a 0.1% decrease from the same time last year. Long-term declines in surface water inflows to Perth's storages means the city's water supply is reliant on desalination and groundwater sources. Adelaide's water supply requirements are augmented by alternative sources, mostly water transfers from the River Murray, with some supply from desalinated water and groundwater