Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Below average rainfall in southern, western and inland Australia

January rainfall was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all Januarys since 1900) for:

• most of Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales and South Australia
• large parts in the west and north-east of Western Australia
• western and southern Northern Territory
• southern Queensland.

For Tasmania, the area-averaged rainfall total was 59% below average, the seventh-lowest on record since national observations started in 1900, and the lowest since 2019. Area-averaged rainfall totals for Victoria and New South Wales were the lowest since 2013 and 2014 respectively.

Rainfall was above to very much above average for:

• north-eastern Queensland
• coastal New South Wales
• areas in the north of the Northern Territory
• parts of northern, central and south-eastern Western Australia extending into south-western South Australia.

Further details: Monthly climate summaries, Latest National climate summary

Recent months

Over the last 3 months, between November 2025 and January 2026, rainfall was below average across:

• most of New South Wales
• parts of southern Queensland
• northern Victoria
• most of South Australia
• south-west Northern Territory
• areas of western and interior Western Australia
• north-eastern Tasmania.

Multi-year rainfall deficiencies

The 2020–22 period saw a multi-year La Niña influence Australian rainfall, ending with the exceptionally wet spring of 2022. Since 2023, southern Australia has experienced drier conditions. Rainfall for the 36 months ending in January 2026 has been below to very much below average for:

• almost all of Victoria and Tasmania
• the south-east and agricultural districts in South Australia
• the west coast of Western Australia.

Maps: Recent and historical rainfall maps

State of the Climate 2024 reported that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. Despite occasional wetter seasons in some areas, southern Australia has recorded below-average April–October rainfall (area-averaged) in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025.

The decline in southern Australia's cool season rainfall is linked to rising surface pressure and shifts in large-scale weather patterns, with more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

Long-range forecast for March to June

The long-range forecast, released on 5 February 2026 for March to June 2026 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of the south, and above average in parts of northern Queensland.
• Autumn rainfall is likely to be below average (60 to 80% chance) for parts of southern and western Australia. The drier than average forecast signal strengthens and spreads across southern and inland parts of Australia toward the end of the outlook period.
• Rainfall is likely to be above average (60 to 70% chance) for parts of Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, with the strongest signal during March.
• For the rest of northern Australia, the rainfall forecast does not strongly favour a particular outcome, meaning there are roughly equal chances that that March to May rainfall will be above, below or close to average.
• Both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for the three months.

Deficiencies for the 13 months since January 2025

The start of 2025 saw dry conditions across much of south-eastern Australia, which persisted in some areas throughout the year.

For the 13-month period since January 2025, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) include parts of:

• the Gascoyne and the central interior of Western Australia and southern Northern Territory
• the east of South Australia
• north-western, southern and eastern-central Victoria
• southern New South Wales
• coastal margins of Tasmania

With the very much below average rainfall during January 2026, rainfall deficiency areas expanded in southern Australia including the areas with severe deficiency in Western Australia, South Australia and southern New South Wales.

Deficiencies for the 24 months since February 2024

February 2024 saw the start of rainfall deficiencies across major agricultural regions of South Australia, Victoria and south-west Western Australia. This followed very much above average rainfall (in the highest 10% of years since 1900) for south-eastern Australia in December and January.

For the 24-month period since February 2024, which also includes the last two southern cool seasons, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• agricultural regions of South Australia
• most of Victoria, except east Gippsland
• parts of southern New South Wales
• some coastal margins in Tasmania
• small areas in the south of Western Australia.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall (compared to all respective periods since 1900) include:

• parts of Eyre and Yorke peninsulas, and large areas of the Mid North and Murraylands districts in South Australia
• areas in north-western and southern Victoria.

Compared to December 2025, deficiency areas have expanded in the south-east, including lowest on record areas in South Australia and Victoria.

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Soil moisture below average across southern and inland areas

January root zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all Januarys since 1911) for:

• most of New South Wales, except the south coast
• southern Queensland
• South Australia and southern Northern Territory
• much of the west of Western Australia
• most of Victoria inland of the Dividing Range
• north-eastern Tasmania.

During January, areas of soil moisture deficiencies expanded and intensified across much of the southern two thirds of the country. Moderate to heavy rainfall mid-month eased deficiencies along the south coast of New South Wales where soil moisture had been below to very much below average for several months.

Evaporative stress increasing in southern and inland Australia

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 January 2026 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• New South Wales except for some coastal areas
• Victoria, except for east Gippsland
• inland southern Queensland
• South Australia
• central areas of the Northern Territory
• Western Australia excluding the far north
• northern and western Tasmania.

During January, evaporative stress intensified across inland areas in all mainland states and coastal areas in southern Australia, including northern and western Tasmania. Inland areas of South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory had significantly elevated ESI (below −2).
Evaporative stress eased in the north including much of Queensland, as well as areas of the east coast.

See this journal publication for further details on the calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring. Negative ESI values can indicate vegetation moisture stress reflecting agricultural and ecological drought. A rapid decrease in ESI values can be an indicator of flash drought.

Rainfall deficiencies and water storage at the end of January

• January rainfall was below average for most of the south-east, far west and central regions of the country.
• Rainfall deficiencies for the 13-month period since January 2025 expanded in areas of inland and southern Australia, and 24-month rainfall deficiencies across large areas of the south-east have intensified and expanded further north.
• Soil moisture deficits have expanded and intensified in parts of the south and eased along parts of the south-east coast.
• Streamflow was lower than average at many sites across southern and eastern Australia, and southern Queensland.
• Some water storages in the eastern and southern states have declined by up to 50% compared to this time last year.

Low streamflow in southern, south-eastern Australia and southern Queensland

Streamflow was lower than average at 37% of the 861 sites with available data across Australia in January (based on records since 1975). Regions with a high proportion of sites with lower than average streamflow included:

• the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (45% of 91 sites)
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (55% of 9 sites)
• Tasmania (64% of 22 sites)
• across the Murray–Darling Basin (48% of 316 sites) and northern areas of the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (43% of 108 sites)
• southern areas of the North East Coast (12% of 151 sites) and the west and east of the Lake Eyre Basin drainage divisions in Queensland (44% of 9 sites)
• the central west of the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (37% of 77 sites) and some sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (36% of 14 sites).

Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded at 6% of sites in January, including:

• sites in the north and south-east areas of the Murray–Darling Basin
• four sites in South East Coast (New South Wales),11 in the west and central east areas of the South East Coast (Victoria), two sites in the South Australian Gulf drainage division, and two sites in the Tasmania
• two sites in the south of the North East Coast drainage division
• five sites in the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia.

Streamflow in January was average at 42% of the 861 sites with available data, across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 22% of sites, with 6% of sites observing very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975). Regions with higher than average streamflow included:

• the Tanami–Timor Sea Coast drainage division (41% of 29 sites), across the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (84% of 32 sites) and four sites in the Lake Eyre Basin drainage divisions in Queensland.
• across the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland (52% of 151 sites)
• south of the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (17% of 108 sites) and across the Murray–Darling Basin (7% of 316 sites)
• the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (13% of 91 sites), one site in the South Australian Gulf drainage division.
• the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (13% of 77 sites) and two sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

Higher than average January rainfall increased runoff in parts of northern Australia including the north-eastern Queensland, and south-eastern coastal areas of New South Wales, contributing to the above average January streamflow in those catchments.

Low storage levels in western Victoria, the southern Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of January, total water storage across Australia—based on 303 public storages—was at 66.2% of capacity, down by 2.2% from the previous month and 6.0% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes decreased in 199 storages during January, with relatively low levels observed in several regions, including:

• the southern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria, particularly in western areas
• central eastern Queensland
• the Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division
• Perth urban storages
• central Tasmania

Storages with declines in New South Wales and south-west Queensland were generally due to below average rainfall and soil moisture content. Extremely dry conditions since 2023 in Victoria reduced inflows to the storages and large volumes were diverted for agriculture during spring and high summer demand. Extended dry spells over many years have kept storages low in south-west Western Australia.

North East Coast

Overall, storages across the North East Coast drainage division were at 77.0% of capacity at the end of January, an increase of 4.4% compared to the previous month and 13.3% lower than at the same time last year.

Some storages were at full capacity and increased from last month, but several storages remained below 50% of capacity at the end of January, notably Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga, Queensland’s second- and fourth-largest storages respectively.

Fairbairn increased by 10.9%, finishing the month at 26.6%. This increase at Fairbairn raised the volumes in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system to 26.6% of capacity in January. This system supplies water to rural communities across central Queensland. Lake Awoonga had a small increase, 1.4% in January ending at 35.1%, 0.9% higher than at the same time last year.

South-eastern Australia

Many storages across the Murray–Darling Basin and the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division were below or close to 50% of capacity at the end of January, including Hume Dam, Australia’s seventh-largest reservoir, and Lake Eucumbene. Hume Dam decreased by 7.7% during January, finishing at 27.8%, 12.5% lower than at the same time last year. Menindee Lakes in the west of New South Wales, decreased to 38.8% at the end of January.

The overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin decreased by 7.4% during January, finishing the month at 53.7% and 11.3% lower than at the same time last year. With dry catchment conditions and increased demand during the irrigation season (October to March), the storage volume decreased in 15 of the 33 storages across the southern Murray–Darling Basin.

Overall storage volume across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division slightly decreased by 2.4% in January, ending the month at 44.1%. In the Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply for domestic and agricultural use in western Victoria, storages were at 36.9% of capacity, down by 4.0% compared to the previous month and 7.1% lower than at the same time last year.

In Tasmania, the two largest storages—Lake Gordon and Great Lake—were at 64.5% and 35.3%, respectively, at the end of January. Total storage across Tasmania was 68.4%, a decrease of 2.6% from December, but 4.4% higher than this time last year.

Western Australia

The Harding Reservoir, the only major storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division, was at 15.5% of capacity at the end of January, a slight decrease of 1.2% from the previous month, and 15.7% lower than at the same time last year.

Urban storages

At the end of January, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were close to or above 72% of accessible capacity, with the exceptions of Adelaide and Perth. Storages for these cities remain relatively low, following extended periods of severe rainfall deficiencies reducing surface water inflows into regional storages.

Perth recorded below average rainfall and soil moisture in January. Perth’s surface water storages were at 41.0% of capacity at the end of January, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous month, and 1.6% lower than at the same time last year. The two largest storages supplying Perth remained below 40% capacity, with South Dandalup at 8.1% and Serpentine at 32.0%.

The long-term decline in surface water inflows, driven by underlying climate change, means Perth now relies heavily on desalination and groundwater to meet urban water demand.

Adelaide’s storages were 55.5% full at the end of January, a decrease of 8.2% from the previous month, but 15.2% higher than at the same time last year. Most of the storages in Adelaide remained above or close to 60% capacity except South Para at 43.0% capacity, Warren at 39.5% capacity and Mount Bold at 48.9% capacity. Storages increases were driven by operational factors, inflows from the River Murray and local catchment runoff.

Adelaide’s urban water supply is augmented by transfers from the River Murray, with additional support from desalination and groundwater. River Murray pipelines also supply water to the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and parts of south-east South Australia.

Melbourne's water storages declined sharply during 2025 due to a warmer than average autumn and winter with below average rainfall and streamflow. By the end of January, Melbourne's storages were 72.0% full, a decrease of 11.0% from the same time last year, and a decrease of 2.7% from the previous month.

In response to persistent rainfall deficiencies, the Victorian desalination plant has been in operation to support water supply to the Melbourne and Geelong areas.