Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

High rainfall through inland Australia and parts of the west and east, below average in the central-east and Tasmania

Area-averaged rainfall was above average for all states and territories except for Tasmania.

March rainfall was the eighth-highest on record (for all Marches since 1900) nationally, the second-highest on record for South Australia and the sixth-highest on record for the Northern Territory.

March rainfall was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all Marches since 1900) for:

• parts of western Tasmania
• much of north-eastern New South Wales
• small areas in the south-east Queensland.

March rainfall was above to very much above average (in the highest 10% of all Marches since 1900) for:

• most of South Australia and the Northern Territory
• large parts of Western Australia and Queensland
• western and southern New South Wales
• much of Victoria.

March rainfall was the highest on record for parts of:

• the Northern Territory Top End
• Cape York Peninsula and the Wide Bay and Burnett district in Queensland
• the North East Pastoral and Riverland districts in South Australia and adjoining areas in western New South Wales and Victoria.

Further details: Monthly climate summaries, Latest National climate summary

Rainfall in recent months

Over the last 3 months, between January and March 2026, rainfall was below average across:

• a large inland area of the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division in Western Australia
• Tasmania
• southern Victoria
• north-eastern New South Wales
• parts of south-eastern Queensland.

January to March rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all January to March periods since 1900) for northern and central areas of Australia, and along the west coast and parts of the south-east mainland.

Above average March rainfall has enabled some southern cropping regions to sew crops earlier than usual autumn planting schedules.

However, the drier than average start to 2026 has established rainfall deficiencies in north-eastern New South Wales into bordering areas of Queensland, and in small areas of Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia. A reporting period for 2026 year-to-date rainfall deficiencies has been added this month.

Multi-year rainfall deficiencies

Rainfall for the 36 months ending in March 2026 has been below to very much below average for:

• large areas of the west and south-west of Western Australia
• the agricultural areas in South Australia
• much of Victoria and Tasmania
• areas along New South Wales western slopes, and into southern Queensland.

There has been little change since February in the severity or extent of the long-term rainfall deficiencies across southern Australia.

Maps: Recent and historical rainfall maps

State of the Climate 2024 reported that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. Even with occasional wetter seasons in some areas, southern Australia has recorded below-average April–October rainfall in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025. The below average cool season rainfall across southern Australia reflects the longer-term signal linked to climate change shown in State of the Climate 2024.

The decline in southern Australia's cool season rainfall is linked to rising surface pressure and shifts in large-scale weather patterns, with more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

Long-range forecast for May to July

The long-range forecast, released on 9 April 2026 for May to July 2026 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Australia.
• Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia except in parts of the tropical north.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across much of Western Australia, Tasmania and the eastern and southern coasts of mainland Australia, with no clear warm or cool signal elsewhere.

Higher temperatures increase atmospheric moisture demand and evapotranspiration, and can significantly increase vegetation stress in dry areas.

Deficiencies for the 3 months since January 2026

Rainfall in January 2026 was well below average across large areas away from the north and south-east coast, including areas of the summer dominant rainfall regions in north-eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where below average rainfall has persisted.

For the 3 months ending in March 2026 severe or serious rainfall deficiencies exist (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of years, respectively, since 1900) in areas including:

• parts of north-eastern New South Wales into bordering areas of Queensland
• a small area in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division in Western Australia
• very small areas along west facing coasts in Victoria
• areas in western and northern Tasmania.

Deficiencies for the 15 months since January 2025

Since late February, tropical systems have brought significant rain across parts of the west, and from the north-west diagonally across inland Australia to the south-east. This reduced rainfall deficiencies in some parts of the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division in Western Australia, and in most parts of south-eastern South Australia, northern Victoria and adjacent areas in New South Wales.

For the 15-month period since January 2025, small areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of years, respectively, since 1900) remain in:

• the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division of Western Australia
• west-facing coastal Victoria
• southern New South Wales
• parts of generally-coastal Tasmania.

Deficiencies for the 24 months since April 2024

For the rolling 24-month period ending in March 2026, which includes the last two southern cool seasons (April to October), areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• agricultural regions of south-eastern South Australia
• parts of western, southern and eastern-central Victoria
• parts of southern New South Wales
• some generally coastal areas in Tasmania
• very small areas in the south of Western Australia.

A small area in south-eastern South Australia, east of the mouth of the River Murray, has had lowest on record 24-month rainfall (compared to all respective periods since 1900).:

Compared with February 2026, deficiency areas for the last 24-months were removed in parts of southern Western Australia, eased in severity in parts of south-eastern South Australia, and reduced in extent and severity in northern Victoria and southern New South Wales.

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Soil moisture below average across parts of the central-east and west

March root zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of all Marches since 1911) for:

• north-eastern New South Wales into south-eastern Queensland
• a pocket of western South Australia
• eastern and western Tasmania
• the far south-west and parts of central Western Australia.

During March, areas with root zone soil moisture deficits expanded and intensified across:

• north-eastern New South Wales
• inland parts of the Pilbara–Gascoyne region in Western Australia.

Significant rainfall during March eased root zone soil moisture deficits in:

• parts of south-west Western Australia, including the wheatbelt
• most of South Australia
• the Northern Territory's south
• most of southern New South Wales and Victoria
• parts of western and northern Tasmania.

Compared to February 2026, root zone soil moisture deficits have eased across much of south-eastern Australia and South Australia. However, root zone soil moisture deficits have intensified in parts of north-eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Below average soil moisture for extended periods is a key indicator of agricultural drought. affecting ongoing crop growth, and reduces pasture availability for livestock. During cropping seasons, low soil moisture can hinder crop emergence, establishment and subsequent growth.

Evaporative stress elevated in parts of the east and west

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 March 2026 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• north-eastern New South Wales
• south-eastern Queensland
• parts of the south-west and central west of Western Australia.
• parts of southern Tasmania

During March, evaporative stress intensified in north-eastern New South Wales into south-east Queensland as well as in parts of the Pilbara in Western Australia. However, evaporative stress generally eased, ­with parts of Northern Territory, large parts of southern New South Wales, southern Australia and northern Tasmania having a positive ESI, or a less negative value compared to the end of February. The extent of significantly elevated ESI (below −2) was reduced and mostly confined to an area of the Pilbara around Marble Bar, and north-eastern New South Wales.

See this journal publication for further details on the calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring. Negative ESI values can indicate vegetation moisture stress reflecting agricultural and ecological drought. A rapid decrease in ESI values can be an indicator of flash drought.

Rainfall deficiencies and water storage at the end of March

• March rainfall was average or above average across most of Australia except for north-eastern New South Wales, parts of south-eastern Queensland and parts of Tasmania.
• Year-to-date rainfall deficiencies for 2026 include areas of north-eastern New South Wales into bordering Queensland, and small parts of Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia.
• Rainfall deficiencies for the tracked 15-month period since February 2025, and 24-month rainfall deficiencies, cleared or eased in parts of inland south-eastern Australia.
• Soil moisture deficits have eased in much of south-eastern Australia and South Australia, but increased in parts of north-eastern New South Wales and in southern Queensland.
• Streamflow was lower than average at many sites across southern and south-eastern Australia, and south-eastern Queensland.
• Some water storages in the eastern and southern states have declined to 50% or less of their capacity.

Low streamflow in southern Australia, north-eastern New South Wales, and south-eastern Queensland

Streamflow was below average at 26% of the 889 sites with available data across Australia in March (based on records since 1975). Below average rainfall, particularly in north-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland, reduced root zone soil moisture and runoff in those catchments. Regions with a high proportion of sites with lower-than-average streamflow included:

• western and central-eastern areas of the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (15% of 98 sites)
• northern and eastern Tasmania (51% of 22 sites)
• across the Murray–Darling Basin (37% of 335 sites) and northern areas of the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (50% of 107 sites)
• southern areas of the North East Coast (3% of 166 sites)
• the central west of the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (27% of 75 sites) and some sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (27% of 15 sites).

Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded in March at 8% of sites, including:

• in the north-east and south-east areas of the Murray–Darling Basin (13% of 335 sites)
• fifteen sites in the northern areas of South East Coast (New South Wales), four sites in the west and central east areas of the South East Coast (Victoria), and two sites in Tasmania
• three sites in the south of the North East Coast drainage division
• one site in the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia and one site in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

Streamflow in March was average at 33% of sites spread across the country.

Above average streamflow was recorded at 41% of sites, with 17% of sites observing very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975). Regions with above average streamflow included:

• the Tanami–Timor Sea Coast drainage division (100% of 29 sites), across the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (94% of 31 sites) and in the Lake Eyre Basin drainage divisions in Queensland (75% of 9 sites)
• across the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland (81% of 166 sites)
• ten sites in the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division in addition to north and southern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin (24% of 335 sites)
• across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (40% of 98 sites)
• the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (23% of 75 sites) and in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (53% of 15 sites).
• two sites in Tasmania

Higher than average March rainfall and root zone soil moisture increased runoff in parts of northern and north-eastern Australia, contributing to the above average March streamflow in those catchments.

Low storage levels in western Victoria, the southern Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of February, total water storage across Australia—based on 303 public storages—was at 66.3% of capacity, remaining steady (up by 0.1%) from the previous month and 2.4% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes decreased in 175 storages during February, with relatively low, below 50% observed in several regions, including:

• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria, particularly in western areas
• central eastern Queensland
• the Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division
• Perth urban storages
• central Tasmania.

Declines in storages in eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland were generally due to below average rainfall and increased water demand. Although average to above average rainfall during March, extremely dry conditions since 2023 in Victoria have led to reduced inflows to the storages and large volumes were used for agriculture during the spring and summer high-demand period. Extended dry spells over many years have kept storages low in south-west Western Australia.

North East Coast

Overall, water storages across the North East Coast drainage division were at 83.3% of capacity at the end of March, an increase of 2.4% compared to the previous month, but 4.7% lower than at the same time last year.

Some storages were at full capacity and increased from last month, but several storages remained below 50% of capacity at the end of March, notably Fairbairn Dam, Queensland’s second-largest storage.

Storage in Fairbairn Dam increased by 9.9%, finishing the month at 36.7%. This increase at Fairbairn raised the volumes in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system to 36.7% of capacity in March. The Nogoa–Mackenzie system supplies water to rural communities across central Queensland.

South-eastern Australia

Many storages across the Murray–Darling Basin and the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage divisions were below or close to 50% of capacity at the end of March, including Hume Dam, Australia’s seventh-largest reservoir, and Lake Eucumbene. Hume Dam increased by 2.1% during March, finishing at 27.0%, and 1.6% higher than at the same time last year. Menindee Lakes in western New South Wales decreased by 4.2%, finishing at 28.5% of capacity at the end of March.

The overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin slightly decreased by 0.4% during March, finishing the month at 49.8%, 6.7% lower than at the same time last year. With dry catchment conditions and increased demand during the irrigation season (October to March), the storage volume in the southern Murray–Darling Basin slightly decreased by 0.7% over the month, finishing at 47.9% capacity at the end of March, around 8.3% lower than at the same time last year.

Despite with notable rainfall totals across parts of Victoria in March, western catchments received only around 10 to 50 mm. Due to persistent rainfall deficiencies, overall storage volume across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division decreased by 1.5% in March, ending the month at 40.4%. In the Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply for domestic and agricultural use in western Victoria, storages were at 33.0% of capacity, down by 2.0% compared to the previous month, and 5.6% lower than at the same time last year.

Tasmania

In Tasmania, the two largest storages—Lake Gordon and Great Lake—were at 61.4% and 29.1%, respectively, at the end of March. Total storage across Tasmania was 64.0%, a decrease of 2.5% from February, but 5.0% higher than this time last year.

Western Australia

The Harding Reservoir, the only major storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division, was at 103.5% of capacity at the end of March, an increase of 52.1% from the previous month, but and 76.0% higher than at the same time last year. The increase in water stored in Harding Dam was driven by rainfall associated with the passage offshore of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle in late March.

Urban storages

At the end of March, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were close to or above 70% of accessible capacity, except for Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth. Storages for these cities are relatively low, following extended periods of severe rainfall deficiencies reducing storage inflows and increasing water demand.

Perth’s surface water storages were at 37.1% of capacity at the end of March, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous month, and 1.1% lower than at the same time last year. The two largest storages supplying Perth remained below 35% capacity, with South Dandalup at 7.3% and Serpentine at 31.2%.

The long-term decline in surface water inflows, driven by underlying climate change, means Perth now relies heavily on desalination and groundwater to meet urban water demand.

Adelaide’s storages were 46.4% full at the end of March, a decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, but 10.3% higher than at the same time last year. Only three storages in Adelaide finished close to or above 60% capacity, with the region's two largest storages, Mount Bold and South Para, sitting at 34.2% and 34.0% full, respectively, by the end of March. Adelaide’s water storage has been driven by prolonged and severe dry conditions, historically low catchment inflows, insufficient rainfall during key recharge periods, and high summer demand.

Adelaide’s urban water supply is augmented by transfers from the River Murray, with additional support from desalination and groundwater. River Murray pipelines also supply water to the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas and parts of south-east South Australia.

While rainfall was average to above average during March, Melbourne's water storages decreased by 2.0% from the previous month, finishing at 67.6% capacity. Water in Melbourne's storages has declined by 10.5% since this time last year, due to rainfall deficiencies, record low inflows, and increased water demand under dry conditions.