Drought
Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Above average rainfall in the west and parts of eastern Australia

August rainfall was below average (in the lowest 30% of Augusts since 1900) for:

• most of Tasmania
• southern and north-eastern Victoria
• parts of southern Northern Territory, north-eastern and southern South Australia
• southern New South Wales.

Tasmania had its driest August since 2014, with area-averaged rainfall 33% below average.

August rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the highest 10% of all Augusts since 1900) for:

• western parts of Western Australia
• large parts of eastern and northern New South Wales
• areas in southern Queensland and far north-western Northern Territory.

It was the wettest August since 2005 for Western Australia with area-averaged rainfall 67% above average. For New South Wales area-averaged rainfall was 12% above average. For all other states and territories, area-averaged rainfall was below average.

Further details: Monthly climate summaries, Latest National climate summary

Winter rainfall

August rainfall was below average (in the lowest 30% of Augusts since 1900) for:

• most of Tasmania
• southern and north-eastern Victoria.
• parts of southern Northern Territory, north-eastern and southern South Australia
• southern New South Wales.

Tasmania had its driest August since 2014, with area-averaged rainfall 33% below average.

August rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the highest 10% of all Augusts since 1900) for:

• western parts of Western Australia
• large parts of eastern and northern New South Wales
• areas in southern Queensland and far north-western Northern Territory.

It was the wettest August since 2005 for Western Australia with area-averaged rainfall 67% above average. For New South Wales area-averaged rainfall was 12% above average. For all other states and territories, area-averaged rainfall was below average.
Further details: Seasonal climate summaries latest National winter summary

Long-range forecast for September to November

The long-range forecast, released on 4 September 2025 for September to November 2025 shows:

• rainfall is likely to be above average for much of eastern Australia
• warmer than average days are likely across northern and south-eastern regions
• warmer than average nights are very likely across much of Australia.

Recent weather patterns

Throughout much of 2024 until June 2025, weather patterns across southern Australia were dominated by slow-moving high pressure systems contributing to persistent warm and dry conditions. During June to August 2025 more typical cool season patterns of low pressure systems and fronts returned across southern Australia.

Maps: Recent and historical rainfall maps

Climate change

State of the Climate 2024 has indicated that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. While some areas can have above average rainfall in some seasons, for southern Australia as a whole, April to October rainfall has been below the historical (1961–1990) average in 24 the last 31 years since 1994.

The declining trend in rainfall is associated with a trend towards higher surface atmospheric pressure in the region and a shift in large-scale weather patterns. There have been more highs, fewer lows and a reduction in the number of rain-producing lows and cold fronts. Over the southern Australia region, there has been an increase in density, and therefore frequency, of high pressure systems across all seasons.

Has the winter rainfall ended the drought?

Drought is considered a prolonged, abnormally dry period when there's not enough water available to meet normal use. The Drought Statement focuses on rainfall deficiencies and their impacts on soil moisture, river flows and surface water storages.

For regions with long-term rainfall deficiencies, for periods longer than 12 months, sustained above average rainfall over many months is typically required to end meteorological drought conditions, recover deep soil moisture and groundwater levels, and increase runoff to replenish large surface water storages and ecosystems.

While above average winter rainfall has eased rainfall deficiencies in parts of Western Australia, and reduced deficiency intensity in some parts of the south-east, runoff and groundwater recovery in these areas will require above average rainfall to continue in spring.

Deficiencies for the 8 months since January 2025

For the 8-month, year-to-date, period since January 2025, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• areas in the Gascoyne and the Southern Interior in Western Australia
• north-eastern agricultural regions in South Australia
• parts of north-western and southern Victoria
• most of Tasmania except in the east
• small areas in western and southern New South Wales.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• part of the Riverland district in South Australia
• part of south-west Gippsland in Victoria.

Since July, rainfall deficiency areas have reduced in extent in the west of Western Australia, and have remained similar in Tasmania, South Australia, New South Wales and much of Victoria. Rainfall deficiencies in south-west Gippsland in Victoria intensified to lowest on record rainfall for the January to August period.

Deficiencies for the 19 months since April 2023

For the 19-month period since February 2024, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• agricultural regions of South Australia
• Victoria, except areas along the northern border and east Gippsland
• small areas of southern New South Wales
• much of western Tasmania, Bass Strait islands and parts of the east.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• much of the agricultural areas in south-eastern South Australia, except in the far south-east
• most of south-west Victoria extending inland to the far north-west, and south-west Gippsland
• a small part of the north-west coastline in Tasmania.

Compared to July, most deficiency areas cleared in the south-west of Western Australia, and generally slightly reduced in extent or severity in south-eastern states. The far south-east of South Australia eased from lowest on record rainfall to severe deficiency.

Deficiencies for the 29 months since April 2023

For the 29-month period since April 2023, which also includes the previous two southern cool seasons, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, respectively, since 1900) extend across:

• areas in the west and south-west of Western Australia
• agricultural regions of South Australia
• south-western Victoria and parts of south-west Gippsland
• most of Tasmania
• a small area of alpine south-eastern New South Wales.

Areas with lowest on record rainfall include:

• parts of the Yorke Peninsula and Mid North district in South Australia
• the coastline from Warrnambool to Cape Otway in Victoria
• small areas on the west coast of Tasmania.

Since July, there has been a reduction in deficiency area extent and intensity in Western Australia. However rainfall deficiency areas across the south-east of mainland Australia are largely unchanged and they have intensified in parts of Tasmania.

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Deficits ease but soil moisture remains below average in parts of the south-east

August root zone soil moisture (0-1 m) was below to very much below average (in the lowest 10% of Augusts since 1911) in:

• parts of southern Victoria including the greater Melbourne region
• much of Tasmania
• the New South Wales Riverina area and surrounds
• parts of south-east Western Australia and western South Australia
• scattered areas of Western Australia's Gascoyne and Pilbara regions
• small areas of the Northern Territory.

With above average rainfall over much of the west of Western Australia including the wheatbelt region, soil moisture deficits eased over the month. Deficits also eased in the parts of south-eastern Australia, but intensified in parts of the New South Wales Riverina, to the east of metropolitan Melbourne and in central Tasmania.

While root zone soil moisture in the west of Tasmania was below average, soils in this area are typically close to saturation at this time of year. Winter rainfall in the south has not been sufficient to restore deeper soil moisture in most areas.

Low soil moisture for long periods of time is an indicator of agricultural drought, affecting ongoing crop growth, and the pasture growth required for livestock. During the southern winter cropping season low soil moisture can impact crop emergence, establishment and growth.

Evaporative stress intensified in the south-east

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 31 August 2025 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) in:

• most of Tasmania
• coastal south-east South Australia
• parts of southern and north-eastern Victoria
• the New South Wales Riverina area
• the south of the Northern Territory
• parts of north-west and south-east Western Australia.

During August, evaporative stress eased over parts of Western Australia, central Australia, western New South Wales and south-east Queensland. However, after reducing in July, evaporative stress intensified again in the south-east of the country where areas of significantly elevated ESI (below −2) developed.

See this journal publication for further details on calculation and use of the ESI in drought monitoring.

Rainfall deficiencies and water storage at the end of August

• August rainfall was average or above average for large areas in the west and east of Australia and below average for the country's central and south-eastern parts.
• Year-to-date rainfall deficiencies have eased in severity and extent in the west of Western Australia but have generally persisted in south-eastern Australia.
• The extent and severity of long-term rainfall deficiencies has eased somewhat in Western Australia but is largely unchanged in south-eastern states.
• Across much of southern Australia root-zone soil moisture deficiencies have eased, but soil moisture in areas of the south-east remains below average for this time of year.
• Streamflow was below average at many sites across southern Australia, with some locations recording their lowest August streamflow on record.
• Some water storages in the southern and eastern states have declined by up to 50% compared to this time last year.

Low streamflow in south-eastern Australia

Streamflow was lower than average at 27% of the 917 sites with available data across Australia in August (based on records since 1975). These below-average flows were primarily associated with average to below average rainfall, which reduced soil moisture and runoff across many catchments. Regions with a high proportion of sites showing lower than average streamflow included:

• the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (65% of 101 sites)
• the South Australian Gulf drainage division (80% of 10 sites)
• much of Tasmania (91% of 22 sites)
• the Murray–Darling Basin (34% of 341 sites), particularly throughout the southern half of the Basin
• some sites across the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland (14% of 167 sites).
• three sites in the Carpentaria Coast drainage division
• across the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (27% of 15 sites)
• the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (11% of 76 sites).

Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded at 6% of sites in August, with one site recording its lowest August streamflow on record. These sites were concentrated in:

• western and central east areas of the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division
• southern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin
• scattered areas across Tasmania
• two sites in the South Australian Gulf drainage division
• five sites in the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland and a single site in the Carpentaria Coast drainage division.

Streamflow in August was around average at 32% of the 917 sites with available data, across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 41% of sites, with 7% of sites observing very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975). Sites with higher than average streamflow included:

• sites across in the Tanami–Timor Sea Coast drainage division (58% of 28 sites) and east and far west areas of the Carpentaria Coast drainage division (45% of 33 sites) and a few sites in the Lake Eyre Basin (33% of 9 sites)
• sites across the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland (46% of 167 sites)
• most of the sites along the South East Coast drainage division (New South Wales) (96% of 112 sites) and sites in the north particularly north-east of the Murray–Darling Basin (33% of 341 sites)
• sites in the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (53% of 76 sites) as well as two sites in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division.

This was due to widespread rainfall in the south-eastern Australia and the west of western Australia, and high soil moisture and runoff in those catchments.

Low storage levels in southern Australia, the Murray–Darling Basin and central Queensland

By the end of August, total water storage across Australia—based on 306 public storages—was at 68.1% of capacity, a 1.5% increase from the previous month, but 7.9% lower than at the same time last year. Storage volumes declined in 123 storages during August, with relatively low levels observed in several regions, including:

• the southern and south-eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• Victoria
• central Tasmania
• central eastern Queensland
• the Harding storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division
• urban areas of Perth.

These declines generally reflected low inflows and maintenance of water releases during August in the affected regions.

North East Coast

Storage volume decreased in 59 of the 69 storages in the North East Coast drainage division in Queensland during August. Several storages remained below 50% of capacity at the end of August, notably Fairbairn and Lake Awoonga, Queensland’s second- and fourth-largest storages respectively.

Fairbairn decreased by 0.8%, finishing the month at 20.3% The decline at Fairbairn contributed to reduced overall volumes in the Nogoa-Mackenzie system in August, which supplies water to rural communities across central Queensland. Lake Awoonga also decreased by 1.5%, ending August at 32.5%.

Overall, storages across the North East Coast drainage division were at 74.1% of capacity at the end of August, a monthly decrease of 2.1% and 0.3% lower than at the same time last year.

South-eastern Australia

Many storages across the Murray–Darling Basin and South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division were below or close to 50% of capacity by the end of August, including Hume Dam, Australia’s seventh-largest reservoir, and Lake Eucumbene. Hume Dam increased by 6.7% during August, finishing at 51.9%.

The overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 4.0% during August, finishing the month at 68.5%. The increase was largely driven by inflows to larger storages, while many smaller reservoirs and weirs experienced declines. It is typical for Murray–Darling Basin storage to increase this time of year due to lower demand and increased inflows in the south. Despite the monthly increase, total storage in the Murray–Darling Basin remained 14.0% lower than at the same time last year.

Overall storage volume across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division increased by 2.5%, ending the month at 38.5%. In the Wimmera–Mallee system, a critical rural water supply for domestic and agricultural use in western Victoria, storages increased by 2.3%, reaching 41.1% by the end of August. However, this was 13.8% lower than at the same time last year.

In Tasmania, the two largest storages—Lake Gordon and Great Lake—were at 49.0% and 33.0%, respectively, by the end of August. Total storage across Tasmania was 57.0%, an increase 0.4% from July, and 3.7% higher than this time last year.

Western Australia

The Harding Reservoir, the only major storage in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division, was at 22.0% of capacity at the end of August, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month, and 5.6% lower than at the same time last year.

Urban storages

Perth’s surface water storages were 42.7% full at the end of August, an increase of 4.3% from the previous month, and 2.7% down from the same time last year. The two largest storages supplying Perth remained below 60% capacity:

• South Dandalup at 8.8%
• Serpentine at 31.3%.

The long-term decline in surface water inflows, driven by underlying climate change, means Perth now relies heavily on desalination and groundwater to meet urban water demand.

Adelaide’s storages were 57.2% full at the end of August, an increase of 5.6% from the previous month, and 8.0% higher than at the same time last year. The three largest storages supplying Adelaide remained below 50%, with Kangaroo Creek and South Para reservoirs sitting at 45.2% and 46.6%, respectively. Adelaide’s urban water supply is augmented by transfers from the River Murray, with additional support from desalination and groundwater. River Murray pipelines also supply water to the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and parts of south-east South Australia.

In response to regional rainfall deficiencies, the Victorian desalination plant has been buffering surface water storages supplying Melbourne and Geelong.