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Rainfall deficiencies and water availability

Rainfall deficiencies and water availability at the end of September

• September rainfall was very much below average in the far west and across much of eastern Australia, but very much above average in western inland areas.
• Areas with 2026-to-date rainfall deficiencies expanded in the west of Western Australia, southern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and Tasmania, and developed in parts of southern Victoria.
• Areas with 24-month rainfall deficiencies expanded and intensified in southern Victoria and Tasmania and persisted in the south-west of Western Australia.
• Long-range forecasts for 4-month rainfall deficiencies to the end of October, show deficiencies are very likely to persist through the month for south-west Western Australia and likely to persist for parts of southern Victoria, eastern Tasmania and coastal southern Queensland, while forecast 9-month deficiencies are likely to persist to the end of December in these southern areas, but contract in Queensland.
• Below average soil moisture intensified across eastern Queensland, while strengthening along the coastal and adjacent ranges of New South Wales and Victoria, in addition to persisting through the south-west of Western Australia.
• Evaporative stress increased across south-eastern Australia, becoming more widespread through New South Wales and Victoria, while remaining elevated across Queensland, Tasmania, and parts of Western Australia.
• Streamflow was lower than average at many sites across southern Queensland, norther New South Wales, Victoria and the south-west of Western Australia.
• Some water storages in the eastern and southern states are at or below 50% of their capacity.
• Groundwater levels continued to be below average across parts of southern Australia.

Low September rainfall in the far west and most of the east, high rainfall across western inland areas

September area-averaged rainfall was below average for all states and territories except for Western Australia.

September rainfall was below to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all Septembers since 1900) for:

• Victoria and most of Tasmania, New South Wales and eastern South Australia
• central and southern Queensland
• parts of Western Australia's west and south coast and adjacent inland areas
• areas in northern and south-eastern Northern Territory.

Areas in the South Australian Gulf region, south-western Victoria and New South Wales southern ranges had their lowest on record (since 1900) September rainfall.

New South Wales had its fourth-driest and Victoria had its sixth-driest September on record. The Murray–Darling Basin had its second-driest September on record behind only 2023.

With the area-averaged rainfall 39% below average, Tasmania had its driest September since 2015, while Victoria had its sixth-driest September on record, and New South Wales its fourth-driest.

September rainfall was above to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all Septembers since 1900) for:

• much of Western Australia, and adjacent areas in South Australia and the Northern Territory
• far north Queensland and north-eastern parts of the Northern Territory.

Western Australia had its second-wettest September on record, with the area-averaged rainfall 147% above average.

At the start of October, heavy rain fell in parts of the south-east including some areas which received little rainfall in September, including parts of the Otway Ranges and Gippsland in Victoria and parts of the Southern Tablelands in New South Wales.

July to September rainfall

July to September rainfall was below to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all winter periods since 1900) for:

• Western Australia's west coast, south-west, and areas in the state's north
• a large area in the north of the Northern Territory
• much of eastern Queensland south of the northern tropics, extending inland towards the Gulf
• eastern New South Wales
• south-eastern South Australia and southern Victoria
• much of Tasmania.

Pockets of lowest on record July to September rainfall were scattered along the south-west coast and the east coast.

July to September rainfall was above to very much above average (in the wettest 10% of all winter periods since 1900) for:

• from parts of the Gascoyne region in Western Australia, to the south-east and across the interior
• much of central inland of Australia extending into the eastern states
• parts of the Australia's far north-east.

July to September rainfall was the highest on record for large areas of south-western inland in Western Australia

Multi-year (36-month) rainfall deficiencies

Rainfall for the 36 months ending in September 2026 was below average to very much below average (in the driest 10% of all October to September 36-month periods since 1900) for:

• large areas of the Pilbara–Gascoyne and south-west of Western Australia
• south-eastern agricultural areas in South Australia
• much of Victoria
• areas along New South Wales western slopes, and into south-eastern Queensland

Lowest on record October to September 36-month areas extend across a large area of south-west Western Australia, parts of south-eastern South Australia, the Otway Ranges in Victoria and coastal north-west Tasmania.

Long-range forecast for October to December

The long-range forecast, released on 1 October 2026 for October to December 2026 shows:

• Rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the west and central regions, below average in the far north and south-east.
• Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
• Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia

Rainfall deficiency forecasts

Rainfall deficiency areas are those with rainfall in the lowest 10% of record.

Deficiencies to the end of October

Long-range forecasts from our ACCESS-S model indicate that for 4-month deficiencies (1-month forecast plus 3-month existing deficiencies) ending in October 2026:

• existing July to September deficiencies are very likely to persist during October along the south of the west coast of Western Australia, and likely to persist in the far south-east of South Australia, in south-western and far-eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania, far south-eastern New South Wales and along areas of the Queensland coast from Capricornia to the south-east.
• July to September deficiency areas have roughly equal chances of developing further inland in eastern Queensland and
  in part of the Top End of the Northern Territory, and low likelihood of developing in larger areas in the north and east.

Deficiencies to the end of December

Forecast 9-month deficiencies (3-month forecast plus 6-month existing deficiencies) ending in December 2026 indicate:

• existing April to September deficiencies are very likely to persist in parts of the far south-west of Western Australia, far-eastern Victoria and adjacent coastal New South Wales.
• April to September deficiencies are likely to contract in eastern Queensland and coastal New South Wales, but have roughly an equal chance of developing in far south-western Victoria and much of Tasmania.

Deficiencies for the 9 months to the end of September 2026

For the 9 months ending in September 2026, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (January to September rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of years, since 1900) include:

• areas of the south-west and the Pilbara–Gascoyne region in Western Australia
• parts of north-eastern New South Wales into south-eastern Queensland
• parts of Tasmania from the west coast to the north-east coast
• small areas in southern Victoria.

During September, areas of rainfall deficiency expanded in Western Australia, southern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and Tasmania, and reemerged in parts of southern Victoria.

Deficiencies for the 24 months to the end of September 2026

For the latest 24-month period ending in September 2026, areas with severe or serious rainfall deficiencies (24-month rainfall totals in the lowest 5% or 10% of periods, since 1900) extend across parts of:

• the south-west in Western Australia
• part of South Australia's Mid North District
• west-facing coastal Victoria
• a small area in the Riverina in New South Wales
• parts of western, eastern and northern Tasmania.

Compared with the 24-month period ending in August 2026, areas of rainfall deficiency intensified and expanded in the Victoria and Tasmania.

Below-average soil moisture intensified across parts of eastern Australia

During September, below average root-zone soil moisture intensified across eastern Queensland, while increasing along the eastern and southern coastal and adjacent ranges of New South Wales and Victoria. Below average soil moisture extended across northern Tasmania, and persisted in parts of Western Australia, particularly the north-west, south-west, and south.

September root-zone soil moisture (0–1 m) was below to very much below average for:

• large parts of eastern Queensland
• much of eastern New South Wales and southern and eastern Victoria
• most of northern Tasmania
• parts of the north-west, south-west, and south-east of Western Australia, including isolated areas in the lowest 1%
• areas across northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory
• small areas of central-western South Australia.

Above average soil moisture remained widespread across central and southern inland Australia during September. Above to very much above average soil moisture became more extensive in central inland Western Australia following above average rainfall, with areas in the highest decile emerging.

Farther east, areas of very much above average soil moisture contracted through central South Australia, south-western Queensland, western New South Wales, and north-western Victoria, although areas in the highest decile persisted across central-eastern South Australia.

Evaporative stress increased across parts of eastern Australia

During September, below average actual evapotranspiration strengthened across eastern Queensland, and became more extensive through north-eastern New South Wales. Along parts of the New South Wales coast and adjacent ranges, below average conditions became more consolidated, while remaining evident across south-eastern Victoria.

Below average evapotranspiration also became more extensive through the mid-west to south-west coastal and adjacent plains of Western Australia, while persisting across the southern parts of Western Australia. Average to above average evapotranspiration remained widespread through much of inland Australia and the northern tropics.

Evaporative stress for the 4 weeks ending 30 September 2026 was elevated (negative Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)) across:

• large areas of central and eastern Queensland
• the eastern two-thirds of New South Wales, reaching into parts of the central west
• much of southern and eastern Victoria, extending into south-eastern South Australia
• most of Tasmania
• southern and south-western parts of Western Australia
• parts of the north-west of Western Australia and southern Kimberley
• the central interior and eastern flank of the Northern Territory.

Throughout September, evaporative stress increased across much of south-eastern Australia, becoming more widespread through New South Wales and Victoria, while remaining elevated across central and eastern Queensland and most of Tasmania. Evaporative stress also persisted in the southern, south-western, and north-western parts of Western Australia, but became more extensive through the mid-west coastal and adjacent plains.

In contrast, evaporative stress remained comparatively low across much of inland Australia, although low-stress conditions became less pronounced through parts of inland South Australia, the Northern Territory, western New South Wales, and south-western Queensland.

Low streamflow in the south-west of Western Australia, Victoria, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland

Streamflow was lower than average at 39% of the 918 sites with available data across Australia in September (based on records since 1975). Very much below average streamflow (in the lowest 10% of years since 1975) was recorded in September at 12% of sites (including 2% of sites with lowest on record). Below average rainfall, particularly in the south-west of Western Australia, Tasmania and eastern Australia, reduced root-zone soil moisture and runoff in those catchments. Regions with lower-than-average streamflow included:

• across the North East Coast drainage division (20% of 167 sites) with 3% sites in the central east and south were very much below average and two sites in the Carpentaria Coast drainage division.
• northern and eastern areas of the Murray–Darling Basin drainage division (30% of 340 sites) with 4% sites in the north-east were very much below average.
• across the South East Coast (New South Wales) drainage division (53% of 109 sites) with 5% sites were very much below average.
• across the South East Coast (Victoria) drainage division (73% of 106 sites) with 26% sites were very much below average.
• in the South Australian Gulf drainage division (30% of 10 sites) were below average
• Northern and eastern Tasmania (58% of 21 sites) with 34% sites in the east were very much below average.
• across the South West Coast drainage division of Western Australia (88% of 76 sites) with 62% sites were very much below average.
• in the Pilbara–Gascoyne drainage division (13% of 15 sites).

Streamflow in September was average at 48% of sites spread across the country. Higher than average streamflow was recorded at 13% of sites, with 6% of sites recording very much above average streamflow (in the highest 10% of years since 1975), mostly in northern Australia and at some sites in Southern Australia.

Low water storage levels in Victoria, in the Murray–Darling Basin and south-eastern Queensland

By the end of September, total water storage across Australia (302 public storages) was at 71.6% of capacity, an increase of 0.5% from the previous month, and 1.1% higher than at the same time last year. The increase was mainly driven by winter and early spring inflows into storages across southern Australian, where winter and early spring is typically part of the annual filling season. While national storage increased, volumes declined in 179 storages during September. There were 52 storages below 50% capacity at the end of the month largely in:

• south-eastern Queensland
• the southern and eastern Murray–Darling Basin
• western parts of Victoria
• Perth urban storages
• central parts of Tasmania.

Declines in storages over the past month across the country were associated with dry catchment conditions and reduced inflows to major storages.

North East Coast and South-eastern Australia

In the North East Coast drainage division, overall storage levels remained relatively high, ending September at 72.2% of capacity. Several storages remained below 50%, including Fairbairn Dam, Queensland’s second-largest storage, which finished the month at 26.4%—down 2.4% from last month, but up 7.7% from last year.

Overall storage volume across the Murray–Darling Basin was 68.9% at the end of September, up 1.7% from last month, but 2.1% lower than this time last year. Northern Basin storage decreased by 2.5% during September, finishing at 54.8%, and down 26.9% since last year. Menindee Lakes in western New South Wales was down 1.1% from the previous month, finishing at 22.3% of capacity at the end of September, and 51.0% lower than this time last year.

Urban storages

At the end of September, surface water storages supplying most capital cities were close to or above 80% of accessible capacity, except for those in Melbourne and Perth.

Perth’s surface water storages were at 40.0% of accessible capacity at the end of September, a slight increase of 0.7% from the previous month, and lower (6.1%) than at the same time last year.

Melbourne's water storages increased by 0.7% from the previous month, finishing at 70.1% capacity, and lower (3.2%) than at the same time last year.

Below average groundwater levels persist across parts of southern Australia

Groundwater conditions in September showed a north-south contrast, with below average groundwater levels across much of southern Australia, corresponding with areas of below-average deep-layer soil moisture. Regions with a high proportion of bores with lower-than-average groundwater levels included:

• parts of the Murray–Darling Basin, particularly the southern Basin
• scattered areas of eastern New South Wales and southern Queensland
• southern Victoria, particularly across coastal and western districts
• south-eastern South Australia, including areas along the South Australia–Victoria border
• south-west of Western Australia including areas around the Perth region
• Tasmania, particularly northern and eastern parts of the region.

Bores with average groundwater levels were scattered across Southern Australia, parts of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.

Groundwater levels were above average in bores across northern Australia, including northern Queensland where deep-layer soil moisture was generally higher and in scattered locations elsewhere.

Over the 5-year period to September 2026, around 21% of bores (with 5-year trends available) showed a rising trend, mainly in northern Australia, parts of southern Murray–Darling Basin. Around 23% showed declining trends in groundwater levels, in the Lachlan, Macquarie–Bogan, Namoi and Murray River regions as well as catchments across western and southern Victoria and parts of Tasmania. These declining trends are consistent with persistent below-average deep-layer soil moisture and drier conditions across southern Australia and northern New South Wales in recent years.

Over 10- and 20-year periods, groundwater levels were generally stable across Australia. Declining trends were observed in parts of south-west of Western Australia, southern Australia, southern Victoria, while rising trends occurred in parts of the southern Murray-Darling Basin and northern New South Wales and south-east Queensland. These long-term trends is broadly consistent with the spatial patterns of long-term wetting and drying reflected in groundwater recharge and deep-layer soil moisture conditions.

Recent decades

State of the Climate 2024 reported that there has been a shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia, especially for the cool season months from April to October. Even with occasional wetter seasons in some areas, southern Australia has recorded below-average April–October rainfall in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025.

The decline in southern Australia's cool season rainfall is linked to rising surface pressure and shifts in large-scale weather patterns, with more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

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