Tropical Climate Update

Recent conditions

In the past week, low pressure troughs and several embedded tropical lows brought heavy rainfall and widespread thunderstorms, some severe, across northern Australia and eastern Queensland, especially impacting far northern Queensland and the north-west of the Northern Territory.

In the latter part of the week, easterly onshore flow triggered severe thunderstorms and heavy falls across Queensland’s north tropical coast. A low-pressure trough brought moist tropical air to southern parts of the Northern Territory into northern South Australia, resulting in widespread rainfall.

For the week ending 16 March, weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 200 mm were recorded across much of northern Australia and parts of south-eastern Queensland. Locally higher falls exceeding 200 mm were recorded over Queensland's north tropical coast and parts of the Daly district in the Northern Territory. Warramunga (56 years of data) in the Northern Territory's interior observed a March daily rainfall record in the 24 hours to 9 am on 13 March of 105.7 mm. The highest weekly total (at a Bureau gauge) was 463.0 mm at Whyanbeel Valley in Queensland. The highest daily total (at a Bureau gauge) was 258.6 mm at Cairns Racecourse in Queensland in the 24 hours to 9 am on 15 March.

Widespread flooding continued in many catchments across the tropical north. In Queensland’s Gulf country, the Flinders River at Walkers Bend was above major flood level all week, as was the Northern Territory’s Daly River at Daly River Police Station; the latter site peaking on the 14th at 16.35 m, exceeding the previous record of 16.25 m set in 1998. Further rainfall during the week saw floodwaters rise and fall in Far North Queensland, around the Daintree.

There are currently many moderate to major flood warnings across eastern and central Queensland and eastern and northern catchments of the Northern Territory. For the latest flood advice, please visit warnings and alerts page.

Rainfall and temperature forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 21 March to 3 April, issued 16 March, shows rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the tropical north. There is at least a 60% chance of rainfall being unusually high (amongst the wettest 20% of fortnights for this time of year) for the northern Cape York Peninsula in line with the forecast track of tropical low 34U. For parts of the interior, rainfall is likely to be below average for the fortnight.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across most of northern Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average across most of eastern and northern Queensland, the eastern Top End and the Pilbara district in Western Australia. However, nights are likely to be below average for parts of the Kimberley and western parts of the Top End.

Tropical low 34U

As of 17 March, tropical low 34U lies to the south of the Solomon Islands and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone tonight. 34U is to move westwards during the week. There is increasing confidence that the system will strengthen and track towards and cross the northern Queensland coast late this week, before continuing into the Gulf of Carpentaria over the weekend. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone 7-Day Forecast for the latest tropical cyclone forecast in the Australian region.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

As of 15 March, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently moderate in the Western Pacific. Some models show the MJO is likely to exhibit a weak to moderate pulse in the Western Pacific in the coming week as it progresses towards the Western Hemisphere and Africa, before weakening later in March. When in the Western Pacific, the MJO can increase rainfall over northern Australia, particularly northern Queensland.