Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 10 November, thunderstorms, some severe, brought localised heavy rainfall across northern Australia. Weekly rainfall totals of 10 to 50 mm were recorded in parts of Western Australia and Queensland, as well as in areas in the east and north of the Northern Territory. Weekly totals of 100 to 125 mm were recorded around Darwin. Darwin Airport recorded 76.8 mm in the 24 hours to 9 am on 8 November, its highest November daily rainfall since 2016.

During the week, low intensity to severe heatwave conditions persisted across most of the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.

With the exception of far northern and eastern Queensland, maximum and minimum temperatures were below average across large parts of northern Australia on most days during the week. Daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies were up to 6 °C below average across large parts of the tropics, with some localised areas up to 10 °C below average. Between 4 and 6 November, several stations in western Queensland had their coldest November minimum temperature on record or their late season minimum temperature records.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 15 to 28 November, issued on 10 November, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for Queensland and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, with the highest chances in north-eastern Queensland and eastern parts of the Northern Territory's Top End and Carpentaria District. Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of northern Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be below average across northern Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be below average for south-western parts of Queensland and much of southern Northern Territory and Western Australia

Madden-Jullian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), as of 8 November, is at a moderate strength in the Western Pacific region. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to progress eastwards across the Western Pacific at moderate strength over the coming fortnight. At this time of year, the MJO in this region typically enhances rainfall across parts of northern Australia.

International conditions

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Tino)

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (named Tino in the Philippines) developed in the north-west Pacific Ocean on 1 November. Kalmaegi intensified to typhoon strength (equivalent to Australian category 3 or higher) on 3 November. Moving westwards, Kalmaegi made its first landfall in Silago (eastern Philippines) on 4 November. After making another seven landfalls while crossing Philippines, it entered the South China Sea on 5 November. The repeated landfalls caused Kalmaegi to weaken, but it rapidly re-intensified in the South China Sea under more favourable conditions. At its peak, Kalmaegi had estimated sustained winds of 175 km/h and a central pressure of 935 hPa. On 6 November, Kalmaegi made landfall on Vietnam's central coast, close to areas impacted by record flooding last week. Kalmaegi rapidly weakened into a tropical storm, passing over north-eastern Cambodia and southern Laos, before dissipating over Thailand on 7 November. Kalmaegi generated destructive winds, flooding and storm surges, resulting in many reported fatalities in Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan)

Tropical storm Fung-wong (named Uwan in the Philippines) developed in the north-west Pacific Ocean on 6 November. Under favourable environmental conditions, Fung-wong intensified as it moved westward and was upgraded to a typhoon on 7 November. Fung-wong reached its peak intensity on 9 November, with a diameter of 1,800 km. At its peak, Fung-wong had sustained winds of 155 km/h (equivalent to a high-end category 3 Australian tropical cyclone) with a central pressure of 950 hPa. Late on 9 November it made landfall on Luzon Island (Philippines) and gradually weakened before moving into the West Philippine Sea. Fung-wong caused widespread flooding and severe wind damage along its path, particularly in northern Luzon. As of 11 November, it is tracking north-westward at below typhoon strength and is forecast to approach the Taiwan Strait, but weakening before making landfall in western Taiwan.