Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the fortnight ending 23 September, there has been unseasonable rainfall with daily falls exceeding 100 mm across Queensland’s North Tropical Coast due to persistent, moist south-easterlies triggering showers between 13 to 18 September. Daily rainfall totals up to 25 mm and locally higher were recorded across northern parts of the Northern Territory and far northern Western Australia between 21 to 23 September as a cloud band stretched across northern and central Australia.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across large parts of northern Australia, particularly between 18 and 20 September. Daily minimum temperature anomalies during 13 to 16 September were up to 8 °C below average across northern Western Australia, most of the Northern Territory and western Queensland, with some localised areas more than 8 °C below average.

Fortnightly forecast

For the fortnight of 27 September to 10 October, there is a slightly increased chance of above average rainfall for parts of Queensland, and central and north-eastern parts of the Northern Territory. Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory and far northern Western Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for northern and eastern Queensland, large parts of the Northern Territory and parts of Western Australia.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak or indiscernible. A small number of forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to briefly strengthen in the Western Pacific before weakening as it moves to the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Most forecasts indicate the MJO will remain weak or indiscernible for the coming fortnight.

International conditions

Typhoon Ragasa

Typhoon Ragasa (Nando in Philippines) formed over the Philippine Sea on 17 September as a tropical depression. Favourable conditions saw it develop to tropical storm strength on 19 September as it moved in a north-westward path. Ragasa rapidly intensified to typhoon strength the following day, and reached its peak intensity on 22 September as it moved westward towards the Philippines. At its strongest, Ragasa had estimated maximum  wind gusts in excess of 280 km/h and a central pressure of 905 hPa. Ragasa made landfall at peak intensity on Panuitan Island in the Philippines on 22 September with heavy to intense rainfall and 3 metre peak storm surges to Batanes, Caunayan, Ilocos  Norte and Ilocos Sur coasts in the Philippines. At its peak intensity, Ragasa was classified as a violent typhoon by the JMA, it's most intense category. Typhoon Ragasa is currently, as of 23 September, moving westward towards Hong Kong and southern China. It is the strongest typhoon so far for the 2025 northwest Pacific typhoon season.

Hurricane Gabrielle

Hurricane Gabrielle formed on 21 September over the Atlantic Ocean and rapidly developed to a Category 4 system on 23 September, with maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h and a central pressure of 948 hPa. It intensified as it moved north-westwards over warm waters close to the south-east of Bermuda.  Gabrielle is generating high surf to Bermuda and parts of the United States eastern coast.

Tropical Storm Narda

Tropical Storm Narda formed 21 September offshore of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 97 km/h winds. It has intensified as it moved westward in the Pacific Ocean.

Typhoon Neoguri

Typhoon Neoguri formed over the North Pacific Ocean on 19 September as a tropical depression strenghtening later into a severe tropical storm due to favourable conditions. Neoguri rapidly intensified to typhoon strength as it moved north-westward, reaching its peak on 21 September with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h and a central pressure of 936 hPa. Neoguri shifted north-eastwards as it has weakened.