Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent and current conditions

Rainfall across northern Australia for the week ending 6 April was mostly constrained to the Top End and Cape York Peninsula. Weekly totals of up to 100 mm were recorded across the Top End and up to 200 mm for Queensland's North Tropical Coast with some locally higher falls. The highest weekly total (at a Bureau gauge) was 231.0 mm at Topaz Alert in Queensland.  

Riverine flooding continues in central Australia. A major flood warning is current for the Eyre Creek, with minor to moderate flooding for catchments across western Queensland. Forecasts for low rainfall (see below) should further recede current flooding.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila

Severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Maila is currently located in the Solomon Sea between Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands at Category 3 strength. It is the 11th tropical cyclone in the Australian Area of Responsibility in the 2025–26 season, and the 7th to reach severe (Category 3 or stronger) intensity. The system is slow moving and expected to track toward the Far North Queensland coast late this week, most likely crossing the coast in the Cape York Peninsula region. The system is forecast to strengthen and may cross the coast as a Category 3 or 4 system. TC Maila follows TC Narelle, which crossed the northern Queensland coast on 20 March and caused heavy rainfall and flooding. For the latest tropical cyclone information see our 7-day forecast.

Rainfall and temperature forecast

Forecast rainfall for the fortnight of 11 to 24 April, issued 6 April, is likely to be below average for most of Western Australia, Northern Territory, and western Queensland. Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across most of most of northern Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be below average for inland parts of the Northern Territory and central and western Queensland, and above average for most coastal regions and in Western Australia, south of the Kimberley.

Madden–Julian Oscillation

A strengthening burst of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Western Pacific. Most models forecast the MJO to remain strong and progress into the Western Hemisphere and Africa region during mid-April. When located in the Western Pacific, the MJO can enhance rainfall across northern Australia at this time of year, it may also contribute to the further development of El Niño conditions. The MJO typically suppresses rainfall across eastern Australia when located in the Western Hemisphere.

International Conditions

As of 7 April, TC Vaianu is located north-west of Nadi, Fiji and tracking toward New Zealand's North Island. The system is forecast to be highly impactful bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to northern parts of the North Island. TC Vaianu is expected to cross Northland and Auckland at Category 2 strength, highly unusual for a tropical cyclone making landfall in New Zealand.