Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 26 January, most of the tropical north saw widespread rainfall, including thunderstorms and isolated heavy rainfall, with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Luana in the west (see below). Throughout the week, the monsoon trough was active near the northern Australian coastline, enhancing rainfall and storms across the tropical north, including tropical low 18U which impacted northern Queensland. Weekly rainfall totals of 150 to 300 mm were recorded in parts of the Kimberley in the north-west, with locally higher falls exceeding 300 mm, largely associated with TC Luana. Parts of the Northern Territory's Top End and Queensland's northern Cape York Peninsula recorded weekly totals above 100 mm. This includes daily totals on 22 January in excess of 100 mm for several sites across the northern Top End.

Ongoing flooding continues to impact parts of northern Queensland with sites along the Flinders River reaching above the major flood level with further flooding expected. Minor to major flood warnings are currently in place across western Queensland and the Gulf Country.

Low-intensity to extreme heatwave conditions impacted much of Western Australia, western parts of the Northern Territory and southern Queensland at the beginning of the week. Several maximum temperature records were set including 49.2 °C at Shark Bay Airport on 20 January, the equal-9th highest January temperature on record for Western Australia. For the week ending 25 January, maximum temperatures were below average for Queensland's Cape York Peninsula and the northern Kimberley in Western Australia, and 4 to 6 °C above average for southern parts of the Northern Territory and Queensland.

Tropical Cyclone Luana

Tropical Cyclone Luana made landfall as a Category 2 system over the Dampier Peninsula, near Derby, on the afternoon of 24 January. The system weakened as it moved inland, bringing heavy rainfall and damaging winds as it tracked south of Derby. Luana's landfall is the second cyclone to impact the area this season—less than a month after Severe Tropical Cyclone Hayley.

As of 27 January, flood warnings remain for the West Kimberley district with further heavy rainfall forecast as ex-TC Luana continues to track south through Western Australia's Interior, bringing heavy rainfall to already wet catchments. Flood watches are currently in place for the Nullarbor district, Salt Lakes district, Sandy Desert and Fitzroy River.

TC Luana was the 8th tropical cyclone of the 2025–2026 Australian tropical cyclone season, making it the equal second-highest number of cyclones at this point in the tropical cyclone season since reliable records of cyclone intensity began in 1980.

See the tropical cyclone 7-day forecast for the latest advice on systems in the Australian region.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 31 January to 13 February, issued on 26 January, shows drier than average conditions are likely across northern Queensland and northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory. Above average rainfall is likely for the Pilbara and Gascoyne, Interior and southern Kimberley districts of Western Australia.

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of the tropical north, excluding parts of Western Australia's Interior, Gascoyne and Pilbara districts, aligning with the forecast for above-average rainfall.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

As of 24 January, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is located in the Western Hemisphere and is forecast to weaken in the coming days.  Since mid-January, the MJO has been located in the Western Pacific, contributing to the strengthening of the monsoon trough over far northern Australia during the past week.