Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the week ending 17 November, tropical moisture and surface troughs that deepened and moved eastward over the mainland generated widespread rain and thunderstorms, some severe, across much of central, northern and eastern Australia throughout the week. Weekly rainfall totals exceeding 50 mm were recorded across large areas of the north and east, with some localised totals above 100 mm in northern regions of Western Australia, the Top End in the Northern Territory and eastern Queensland. Charles Point in the Northern Territory established a new November daily record of 228.4 mm in 24 hours to 9am on 17 November, the third-highest November daily rainfall ever recorded in the Northern Territory.

During the week, low intensity to severe heatwave conditions eased across parts of the Top End in the Northern Territory and the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were below average across large parts of northern Australia on most days during the week. Maximum temperatures were up to 6 °C below average with some localised areas up to 12 °C below average on 15 and 16 November in northern parts of Western Australia, eastern parts of the Northern Territory and large parts of Queensland.

Tropical low 02U

As of 12 pm AEDT 18 November, tropical low 02U is located well north of Darwin within the western Arafura Sea region and moving slowly to the east north-east. Although there remains high variability in model intensity ranges, there is increasing risk that 02U could become a tropical cyclone (TC) on 19 or 20 November.

If 02U reaches TC strength, it would become the first cyclone for the 2025-26 Australian season, and will be named TC Fina. This would be relatively early for a system to reach TC strength. The last system to cross the Northern Territory coast at TC strength in November was TC Alessia in 2013. Alessia crossed the southern Gulf region on 27 November 2013 at category 1 strength, about 130 km east of Borroloola, after earlier crossing the Top End (from west to east) as a tropical low.

For the latest 7-day forecasts, go to the Tropical cyclone forecast page.

Fortnightly forecast

The forecast for the fortnight of 22 November to 5 December, issued on 17 November, shows rainfall is likely to be above average for far north Queensland and a small part of the north-eastern Top End of Northern Territory, with the highest likelihood over northern Cape York Peninsula in Queensland. Rainfall is likely to be below average for much of the rest of northern Australia.

However, it should be noted, tropical low 02U could follow many possible paths near the Australian coastline, so possible daily rainfall totals while the low is active are likely to vary widely. 

Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across northern Australia except for small areas in far northern Queensland and eastern regions of the Top End. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of northern Australia.

Madden-Jullian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), as of 15 November, is at a moderate strength in the Western Pacific region. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to progress slowly eastwards across the Western Pacific at moderate strength over the coming fortnight. At this time of year, the MJO in the Western Pacific typically enhances rainfall across parts of northern Australia.

International conditions

Typhoon Fung-wong (Uwan)

Tropical storm Fung-wong (named Uwan in the Philippines) developed in the western North Pacific Ocean to the west of the Philippines and was upgraded to a typhoon on 7 November. Fung-wong reached its peak intensity on 9 November, with sustained winds of 155 km/hr (equivalent to Australian high-end category 3  system). Fung-wong made landfall on Luzon Island (Philippines), gradually weakening before moving into the South China Sea. Fung-wong turned and tracked north-eastwards and made landfall over the Pingtung County in Taiwan as a tropical storm (equivalent to Australian category 1) on 12 November before weakening to a tropical depression on 13 November. Fung-wong generated destructive winds, flooding and storm surges, resulting in landslides and many reported fatalities and injuries in the Philippines and Taiwan.