Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the fortnight ending 7 October, rainfall across northern Australia has been relatively light with most areas receiving less than 5 mm. Some parts of the Kimberley, north-west Northern Territory, and the Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands of Queensland observed fortnightly totals around 10 to 25 mm. This includes parts  of the North Tropical Coast of Queensland and the Top End of the Northern Territory which reached the Northern Rainfall Onset threshold of 50 mm since 1 September.

Over the fortnight, maximum temperatures were above average for most of northern Australia. Minimum temperatures were close to average.

Fortnightly forecast

For the fortnight of 11 to 24 October, issued on 7 October, rainfall is likely to be above average for most of northern Australia (60% to greater than 80% chance), with the chances being strongest in far northern parts.

Maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for much of northern Australia. Days and nights also have an increased chance of being unusually warm across the period, with the highest chances being across the far north. Unusually warm temperatures are considered to be those in the warmest 20% of records between 1981 and 2018.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak or indiscernible. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to strengthen and re-appear in the Western Hemisphere during this coming week. It is then predicted to move over the Indian Ocean. At this time of year, the MJO in these regions typically suppresses rainfall across northern Australia.

International conditions

South-West Monsoon

The South-West Monsoon has begun its withdrawal from the Indian subcontinent. As of 6 October, it is over the north-west of the Indian subcontinent, close to its climatological position for this time of the year.

Typhoon Bualoi

Typhoon Bualoi developed from an area of convection in the western Pacific Ocean. It was named on 24 September as it moved westwards towards the Philippines. It made multiple landfalls over the Philippines as a severe tropical storm. After crossing the Philippines, it re-intensified in the South China Sea and reached its peak intensity with winds of 140 km/h and central pressure of 965 hPa. It made landfall over northern Vietnam.

Hurricane Imelda

Hurricane Imelda was named as a tropical disturbance on 27 September in the north Atlantic Ocean, later intensifying to a tropical storm in that afternoon. On 30 September, it reached hurricane intensity, peaking during the evening with winds of 155 km/h and central pressure of 966 hPa. It came close to the coast of Bermuda before moving north-east back out towards the sea. Imelda produced heavy rainfall, strong winds and rough surf, which impacted some Caribbean Islands as well as parts of south-eastern USA.

Typhoon Matmo

Typhoon Matmo was named on 1 October as a tropical storm, moving toward the west in the western Pacific Ocean. It made landfall in the Philippines as a severe tropical storm, causing heavy rainfall and flooding. After crossing the Philippines, it re-intensified, peaking at typhoon intensity with winds of 165 km/h and central pressure of 968 hPa. It made landfall again over south-eastern China.

Severe Tropical Storm Halong

Severe Tropical Storm Halong formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean south of Japan on 5 October. Halong was moving northwest over waters near the Ogasawara Islands on 7 October at typhoon intensity with winds of 185 km/h and central pressure 975 hPa. As at 7 October it is forecast to recurve and turn towards the east, potentially affecting southern and eastern parts of Japan.