Tropical Climate Update

Australian region

Recent conditions

For the fortnight ending 9 September, there has been little to no rainfall across most of northern Australia, with the exception of parts of southern Northern Territory and south-western Queensland where daily rainfall totals up to 45.0 mm were recorded locally due to thunderstorms on 8 September.

Maximum and minimum temperatures were below average across large parts of northern Australia, particularly between 1 and 4 September. Daily minimum temperature anomalies during this period were up to 8 °C below average across most of the tropics, with some localised areas up to 12 °C below average. Several sites across northern Queensland and north-eastern Western Australia had their coldest September minimum temperature on record.   

Fortnightly forecast

For the fortnight of 13 to 26 September, there is a slightly increased chance of above average rainfall for parts of Queensland, and central and far north-eastern parts of the Northern Territory. Maximum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory and far northern Western Australia. Minimum temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Queensland, large parts of the Northern Territory and western parts of Western Australia.

Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak and located over the western Indian Ocean. Most forecasts from surveyed models suggest the MJO is likely to remain weak or indiscernible over the coming fortnight. Rainfall patterns across northern Australia are not expected to be influenced by the MJO in the coming fortnight.

International conditions

Hurricane Kiko

A tropical storm formed on 31 August south-west of the Baja California Peninsula and was named Kiko. It intensified while moving westwards, strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane on 2 September. Continuing along the westward track, Kiko rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on 3 September, with sustained winds of 230 km/h and central pressure of 944 hPa. On 4 September, Kiko weakened to a Category 3 hurricane due to nearby dry air but re-intensified to a Category 4 hurricane on the following day, while moving to west-north-west. On 6 September Kiko entered the Central Pacific basin as a Category 3 hurricane, briefly re-intensifying to a Category 4 system before weakening over cooler waters. It is forecast to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on 9 September, bringing large swells to the islands' coasts.

Hurricane Lorena

A tropical storm formed on 2 September off the coast of south-western Mexico and was named Lorena. It intensified moving north-westward and on 3 September it strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane. Lorena peaked on the same day with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h and a central pressure of 981 hPa while located west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It then started to weaken, on 4 September it was downgraded to a tropical storm, and on 5 September it transitioned into a tropical low. Lorena brought heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and flooding to southern parts of the Baja California Peninsula.

Typhoon Tapah

Tropical storm Tapah formed on 5 September in the South China Sea. It intensified while tracking to the north-west and early on 8 September strengthened into a Category 1 typhoon with peak sustained winds of 120 km/h and a central pressure of 975 hPa. Tapah passed around 200 km to the south-west of Hong Kong and made landfall in the China's southern Guangdong Province on the same day, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds.