Tropical Climate Update

Northern Australian wet season 2025–26: seventh wettest on record

The 2025–26 northern Australian wet season has drawn to a close. The dry season, from May to September, is a period of little rainfall, lower humidity and cooler conditions across tropical Australia, with a low likelihood of tropical cyclone activity across the broader north Australian region.

Averaged across northern Australia (north of 26°S), wet season rainfall for October 2025 to April 2026 was 683.8 mm, 44% above the 1961–1990 average of 476.4 mm. It was the seventh-wettest wet season since records began in 1900. Wet season rainfall was above average to very much above average (in the top 10% of all wet seasons) for the Northern Territory, most of Queensland north of 26°S, and the Kimberley region in Western Australia. However, rainfall was below average for southernmost parts of Queensland, and some inland parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne regions of Western Australia.

The mean maximum temperature across northern Australia for October 2025 to April 2026 was 0.71 °C above the 1961–1990 average, and the mean minimum temperature was 1.10 °C above average, the seventh warmest on record since national temperature observations started in 1910.

There were 11 tropical cyclones in the Australian region from November 2025 to April 2026, just above the average of 10 tropical cyclones over all seasons since 1980–81. Seven of these reached severe strength (Category 3 or greater). The season was consistently busy, with each month from November to April having at least one tropical cyclone. The season began early, with Severe Tropical Cyclone Fina being the equal-earliest landfalling tropical cyclone in the Australian region. Fina crossed the Cobourg Peninsula on the evening of 21 November 2025, tying with Severe Tropical Cyclone Ines, which crossed the Kimberley coast on 21 November 1973. March saw Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle make landfall in Queensland, the Northern Territory, and Western Australia, only the second cyclone after Tropical Cyclone Ingrid in 2005 to cross the coasts of the three northern states and territories coasts each at severe intensity (Category 3 or above) since reliable intensity data began in 1980–81.

A more comprehensive summary of the 2025–26 northern Australian wet season will be published on 14 May 2026.

Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Indian Ocean

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently located in the Indian Ocean region, but the signal has been weakening. Most models forecast the MJO to weaken further over the coming days.

A few models suggest a re-strengthening of the MJO over the Western Pacific or Western Hemisphere region in mid-to-late May. If this occurs, associated westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific could support further El Niño development.

Tropical activity to shift north

As dry season conditions become further established over northern Australia, and the monsoon trough progresses northwards, the focus of tropical weather shifts towards the northern hemisphere. In the coming month, monsoonal conditions are likely to develop close to the Indian subcontinent in the lead up to its annual wet season. The first part of India to typically see monsoon onset is the state of Kerala in the south-west, around 1 June.

Another key seasonal change will be the increase in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific Ocean, which typically has its peak period during July to October.