Australian 12-month mean temperature record broken for third month running

October 2013 mean temperatures well above average

October mean temperatures were unusually warm, with a national anomaly 1.43 °C above the 1961–1990 average. This means that Australia has seen 15 consecutive months of warmer-than-average temperatures, with numerous records broken as a result.

This continuation of unusually high spring temperatures has been sufficient to break the national record for the warmest 12-month period again, the third consecutive month in which a new record has been set.

Averaged over the 12 months from November 2012 to October 2013, Australian mean temperatures were 1.30 °C above the 1961–1990 average. This surpasses the records set in the previous two months (+1.25 °C for October 2012 to September 2013 and +1.11 °C for September 2012 to August 2013) and is some 0.22 °C warmer than any 12-month period prior to 2013 (+1.08 °C for February 2005 to January 2006).

November 2012 to October 2013 mean temperature deciles for Australia showing 12-month temperatures were the highest on record for 42% of Australia.

November 2012 to October 2013 mean temperature deciles for Australia showing 12-month temperatures were the highest on record for 43% of Australia.

Australian monthly mean temperature anomalies for September 2012 to October 2013.

Australian monthly mean temperature anomalies for September 2012 to October 2013.

Running means for Australian temperature anomalies for 12-month periods ending October 2013. Vertical grid lines mark 12-month periods commencing January 1920, January 1930, etc. The three records set for periods ending August, September and October 2013 can be seen at the end of the timeseries.

Running means for Australian temperature anomalies for 12-month periods ending October 2013. Vertical grid lines mark 12-month periods commencing January 1920, January 1930, etc. The three records set for periods ending August, September and October 2013 can be seen at the end of the timeseries.


The Remainder of 2013

Temperatures for the calendar year to date (January to October 2013) are also the warmest on record, at 1.32 °C above the long-term average, well above the value for January to October 2005 (+1.08 °C). The record for Australia’s warmest calendar year is currently held by 2005. It is now very likely that 2013 will go on to be Australia’s hottest calendar year on record. The current seasonal outlooks suggests a strong shifts toward warmer than average temperatures.

Year to date temperature anomalies for Australia (January to October 2013) showing a range of scenarios (see table) compared with past November to December outcomes. The light blue shaded area shows the range of historical outcomes from hottest to coldest.

Year to date temperature anomalies for Australia (January to October 2013) showing a range of scenarios (see table) compared with past November to December outcomes. The light blue shaded area shows the range of historical outcomes from hottest to coldest.

Temperature Scenarios for the Remainder of 2013 Annual Australian Temperature Anomaly Rank and Comment
Current temperature anomaly (+1.32 °C) persists to end of year +1.32 °C Warmest year on record
Last 2 months of 2013 follow the present 10-year average (+0.49 °C) +1.18 °C Warmest year on record
Temperatures return to the 1961–1990 average (+0.00 °C) +1.10 °C Warmest year on record
Last 2 months of 2013 are coldest on record +0.76 °C 4th warmest year on record