Climate outlook for spring (September to November)

Issued 17 August 2017

Climate outlook overview

  • The spring (September to November) outlook, issued 17 August 2017, suggests rainfall is likely to be below average for western parts of Australia.
  • September is likely to be drier in southwest Australia, but wetter in parts of southern Queensland.
  • Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances are highest (greater than 80%) in the north and southeast.
  • Spring nights are likely to be warmer than average over northern and eastern Australia.
  • Both of Australia's major climate drivers at this time of year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain neutral. More localised influences, such as sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline, are likely to be affecting this outlook.

Drier spring likely for western parts of Australia

  • Spring (September to November) rainfall is likely to be below average for western parts of Australia. Elsewhere, there is no strong signal towards a wetter or drier three months.
  • September is likely to be drier in southwest Australia, but wetter in parts of southern Queensland.
  • Cooler sea surface temperatures off the coast of WA are likely to be decreasing moisture flow into the region.
  • Historical outlook accuracy for September to November is moderate for most of Australia, but low in northern parts of the South West Land Division in WA. See map for more detail.

Warmer spring likely for most of Australia

  • Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia during spring. Chances are highest in northern and southeastern Australia, where there is a greater than 80% chance of warmer than average days.
  • Spring nights are likely to be warmer than average over northern and eastern Australia.
  • Warmer sea surface temperatures off the northern and eastern coasts are likely to be influencing this outlook, keeping overnight temperatures warmer than average.
  • Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for most of Australia, except western and northern WA, and northern parts of the NT and Queensland where accuracy is low.

Climate influences

  • Both of Australia's major climate drivers at this time of year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain neutral.
  • In the absence of major climate drivers, more localised influences are likely to affect Australia. Cooler sea surface temperatures off the coast of WA are likely to be decreasing moisture flow into the region. This is likely influencing the drier outlook for western parts of Australia.
  • Warmer sea surface temperatures to the north and east of Australia are likely to persist, keeping overnight temperatures higher for northern and eastern Australia.
  • In addition to the natural drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the IOD, Australian climate patterns are being influenced by the long-term increasing trend in global air and ocean temperatures.
  • Bureau climatologists continually monitor the climate for any significant developments, with information on El Niño/La Niña and IOD events available fortnightly via the ENSO Wrap-Up. For a summary of Pacific and Indian Ocean outlooks, please see the Climate Model Summary.