Tropical Climate Update

Tropical Cyclone 'Kirrily' likely to form over the next 24 to 48 hours

Tropical Low O5U developed in the Gulf of Carpentaria with the arrival of the monsoon trough across the tropics last week. It has moved eastwards into the Coral Sea over the last 7 days and is currently forecast (as at 3pm AEST 23 January) to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone overnight today (23 January) or during Wednesday (24 January), with the name 'Kirrily'.  

The system is expected to intensify to a Category 3 system as it moves towards the Queensland coast over the next few days. A coastal crossing is likely overnight on Thursday (25 January) between Cardwell and Airlie Beach in Queensland. Whilst the chance of a severe tropical cyclone on landfall remains, the chance of this occurring has decreased.

Northern Queensland coastal residents between Townsville and Mackay are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

For up-to-date information on cyclone warnings, visit the Bureau’s Cyclone Forecast Service

Tropical Cyclone 'Anggrek' continues in the Indian Ocean

Tropical low 05U is not the only system being monitored by the Bureau of Meteorology across the tropics. Tropical Cyclone 'Anggrek' is still active in the Indian Ocean and is currently a Category 1 system. It is currently located south-west of Cocos Island, and moving in a south-westerly direction. It is currently forecast (as of 3pm AEST 23 January) to re-strengthen to a category 3 system as it leaves the Australian Area of Responsibility (AoR) over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Low 03U weakening over Western Australia

Tropical low 03U and the presence of the monsoon trough are also continuing to influence the weather across northern Australia.

Tropical low 03U brought high rainfall at Tipperary and Port Keats Airport (at Wadeye) in the Northern Territory over the past week. At Tipperary, January rainfall received to date has been 795 mm, whilst the January average is 263.3 mm. This represents 301.9% of the January average at this location. The highest daily total at Tipperary was 124.0 mm on 16 January 2024.

At Port Keats Airport 725.6 mm has been observed for January to date, which is 212% of the January average for this location (average is 342.2 mm). The highest daily total at Port Keats Airport was 334.8 mm on 15 January 2024.

As at 23 January, Tropical Low 03U is located over Western Australia and is weakening.

The monsoon tough remains over the tropics.

The monsoon trough, that has brought heavy rainfall, gusty winds and cooler conditions across the tropics since 10 January 2024, remains over northern Australia. The monsoon trough is forecast to weaken across northern Australia during this week, with a return to more typical monsoon break conditions, which is characterised by light winds and isolated shower and thunderstorm activity.

The monsoon trough's future movement will be dependent on several factors, including local meteorological conditions, and may be influenced by the passing of tropical waves – such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Equatorial Rossby waves. Pulses of these waves are currently forecast to remain in and around the tropics through to the middle of February.

Madden–Julian Oscillation to move to the Western Pacific

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the Maritime Continent. International climate models suggest it is likely to move eastwards and weaken as it moves towards the Western Pacific, with most models forecasting it to restrengthen to between a moderate to strong level after it moves.

At this time of year, when the MJO is in the Maritime Continent and the Western Pacific, the chance of above average rainfall typically increases across northern Australia.