Tropical Climate Update

Heavy rainfall across parts of Queensland and north-eastern Northern Territory

On 30 January, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily was located over western Queensland, continuing to bring heavy rain and flooding. In the following days it moved northwards, towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, bringing heavy rain and squally winds to the Gulf Country (Queensland), Carpentaria and Barkly districts (Northern Territory). On 3 February it moved southwards into the Channel Country (Queensland), and then continued towards New South Wales on the 4th. Some of Queensland's notable daily rainfall totals related to ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily include 146.8 mm at Trepell Airport in the 24 hours to 9 am on 31 January, 332.0 mm at Westmoreland Station and 150.0 mm on Mornington Island Airport to 9 am on 2 February, and 156.0 mm at Westmoreland Station and 155.0 mm at Herbert Vale to 9 am on 3 February. Heavy rainfall from ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily resulted in river rises across northern parts of Queensland and Major Flood Warnings were issued for Flinders and Nicholson rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek

Tropical Cyclone Anggrek developed in the Indian Ocean near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands on 15 January and started moving south-westwards on the 23rd while intensifying. On the 25th it left the Australian Area of Responsibility and moved into the South-West Indian Ocean basin as a Category 2 system. On the 26th Tropical Cyclone Anggrek intensified to a Category 3 system reaching Category 4 intensity on the 28th, then rapidly weakened and dissipated on the 31st.

Tropical Low 06U

On 6 February, a weak tropical low 06U was slow moving north-west of New Caledonia in the eastern Coral Sea, near the eastern boundary of the Australian region (160°E). It is likely that tropical low 06U will move to the north-west over the Coral Sea and remain weak, then move to the east and exit the Australian region by the 9th. There is a moderate to high likelihood of Tropical Cyclone formation by the 11th, but as of 11am AEST 6 February there was no threat of a direct impact on the Queensland coast. 

Normal wet season rainfall across northern Australia

The monsoon trough that brought heavy rainfall, gusty winds and cooler conditions to the tropics since 10 January, started weakening from 26 January. Currently, across northern Australia there are more typical monsoon break conditions, which are characterised by light winds and isolated shower and thunderstorm activity. The monsoon is not forecast to return to northern Australia this week. 

During the week to 6 February, there were thunderstorms and showers in the Top End (Northern Territory) on some days, while a low pressure trough resulted in thunderstorms and rainfall about the North Tropical Coast (Queensland). 

Indian Ocean Dipole returns to neutral

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral, with the latest weekly IOD index (to 4 February 2024) being below +0.4 °C for the second consecutive week. IOD events typically break down as the monsoon trough shifts south into the southern hemisphere.  

Due to the strength of the positive IOD in 2023, the event decay has been later than usual. The majority of model forecasts indicate the IOD will be neutral until at least April.  

Madden–Julian Oscillation currently over central Pacific

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over the central Pacific. International climate models suggest it will remain in the central Pacific during the coming fortnight. At this time of year, as the MJO moves further eastwards across the tropical Pacific, the chance of above average rainfall typically decreases across much of Australia.